Personally, I struggle to follow more than one sport at a time. Typically I’ll follow one sport, keep minor tabs on what else is going on, then when that sport ends I’ll move on to the next. For the past few months, that’s been football (with a break for the World Series). But football season is winding down just in time for conference play to start with basketball.
For those who, like me, are just now getting caught up in basketball, here’s my summary of what’s been going on so far.
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Utah State has had a very strong start
The preseason predictions for Utah State were for them to be a great team, and that looks correct so far. The Aggies won their first seven games by an average of 20 points. Was it the hardest schedule? No, but it wasn’t the easiest either. As of December 11, College Basketball Reference had their strength of schedule in the 25th percentile. Through their first 10 games, Utah State had a net rating of 21.78 (or average point difference per 100 possessions), which was 35th nationally at the time. The big reason for their strong start is the solid play of their guards.
The first is transfer guard MJ Collins. Again through those 10 games he averaged 20 points, including putting up 40 against Davidson:
Local product Mason Falslev is also doing well. He was a popular pick for preseason conference player of the year, and is doing a good job of justifying that. He’s averaging 15.5 points a game on 53% shooting, while on defense he’s averaging a conference-best 2.7 steals a game. The player just behind him in steals is the third guard in the rotation, fellow Utah native Drake Allen. He’s not a high volume scorer, averaging 6.5 points a game, but he leads the Mountain West with 5.7 assists a game.
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Colorado State is … good?
The media picked the Rams to finish seventh, and we at MWC Connection had them tied for sixth. But for the first month, they may be proving us wrong. They won eight of their first 10 games, and those two losses were by a combined four points. Through those games their net rating was 19.02 points per 100 possessions, 47th nationally, and third in the Mountain West behind Utah State and Boise State.
Their defense hasn’t been as strong (110 points per 100 possessions), but their offense is 15th in offensive rating at 125 points per 100 possessions. They pass the ball well, scoring 64% of their points off assists – 20th nationally. Their top scorer so far is big man Kyle Jorgensen. He came out strong winning the player of the week for the first week of the year. In two games that week Jorgensen put up a total of 40 points and 18 rebounds. In their 81-83 loss against Denver Jorgensen put up 29 points on only 11 attempts along with six rebounds, and in their win over in state rival Colorado he put up 21 points while going 7-10. He’s a good scorer at the rim, but he’s not a bad shooter either for a 6-9 kid, making 16 of 32 three-point attempts. He was very quiet last year, only getting 13 minutes a game, but so far looks like an early candidate for Breakout Player of the Year in the conference.
As a team, Colorado State is embracing the long ball, and they’re doing it well. So far this year they lead the Mountain West in both three points made per game (11.4) and three point percentage (43%).
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Guard Josh Pascarelli in back-to-back games against Colorado and South Florida went an absurd 16-18 from beyond the arc. His 37 made 3 point shots were tied for 6th most nationally through the first 10 games of the year. Teammate Brandon Rechsteiner has also been a solid shooter. He’s third in made threes per game at 2.9 in the conference and third in percentage made among qualifiers.
I was wondering if they could keep up their solid play, but after beating a good Colorado team 91-86, they actually might be a team to watch out for. Sure they got blown out by Utah State, but Jorgensen only played four minutes that game.
Boise State and San Diego State had slow starts
Boise started the season against a Division II school, Hawaii Pacific. They’re one of those schools that doesn’t have a logo for ESPN to use. Boise still lost, 79-78. It was so bad some fans held a midnight vigil (keep in mind the day before Boise lost at home to Fresno in football 30-7). They also had some tough losses to USC and NC State at the Maui Invitational. A 6-3 start isn’t great, but there are some positives.
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One is how tough their schedule has been, even with playing a Division II school. Through the first month of the season, Sports Reference gave Boise the sixth hardest schedule nationally. With that, they still played well, with their net rating of +23 points per 100 possessions was 35th nationally. There were some questions about replacing their all-time leading scorer Tyson Degenhart, but they’ve done a good job of replacing him with a committee, with four players averaging 10+ points a game in that first month. After starting 5-3, they’ve gone 4-1, including a close 68-67 win against Saint Mary’s.
San Diego State was in the same boat as Boise. The Aztecs went 3-3 to start the year, losing to Troy in double overtime and getting blown out by Michigan the week after. But like Boise, there’s some needed context. Their schedule has been 13th hardest so far, per Sports Reference. Their adjusted net rating of +17 points per 100 possessions isn’t bad – 54th best – but still not great. But again, the tough schedule will do that, especially with Michigan looking like a favorite to win it all.
San Diego has relied on their defense recently, but they really struggled in November. In a four game stretch against Troy, Michigan, Oregon, and Baylor they gave up an average of 93 points a game. The good news is their main defensive core from last year is still playing well. Last year’s defensive player of the year Magoon Gwath is averaging 1.8 blocks a game – down from last year’s absurd 2.6, but still second best in the conference. Pre-season player of the year Miles Byrd had some rough games, averaging nine points a game. He’s making a higher percent of shots this year than last (.404 versus .381), but is averaging about two fewer attempts a game.
Meanwhile BJ Davis has been coming off the bench and seems to be doing well in that role. His minutes per game have gone down slightly from last year – which is expected when moving into a 6th man role – but he’s averaging almost four more points a game. Per 100 possessions, the only players averaging more points in the first month were MJ Collins and Boise State’s Drew Fielder. For now I’d say Davis is the favorite for Sixth Man of the Year, but if San Diego continues to struggle they may put him back in the starting lineup.
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Solid Guard Play Across the Conference
The teams I’ve mentioned have some great guards, but they’re not the only ones. San Jose as a team hasn’t been too great, but transfer Colby Garland is doing well. He’s averaging 19.6 points a game, second best in the conference, while also fourth with 4.4 assists a game – the only player in the top five for both. His best game so far I thought came in a close 86-82 loss to Stanford. Garland in that game had 20 points on 15 attempts, along with nine assists.
Jake Heidbreder at Fresno also started strong. He started off at Air Force and did alright there, averaging 13 points a game over two seasons. After redshirting the 23-24 year and playing sparingly at Clemson, I don’t think many had high expectations for him at Fresno. Yet he’s already one of the best shooters in the conference: he’s making 2.3 three’s a game (6th best), and is third in points per game a 18.3. He’s a big reason Fresno started 6-2, when many expected them to be one of the worst in the conference. Fresno is going through a rough stretch losing four in a row right after Thanksgiving, but one was to a good Arkansas team. I’m interested in how they’ll do in conference play.
Grand Canyon is here too
I got so used to my method of looking up teams that I completely forgot the Mountain West had a new team. I think they fit in because, like six other Mountain Teams, they came straight from the WAC. If you also forgot or didn’t know Grand Canyon is now part of the conference, well now you do!
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They’re definitely a team on the upswing. They only started Division I basketball 13 years ago, but have been in the NCAA tournament for three straight years and four of the past five. Their 6-4 start wasn’t great, but the past two seasons they dropped four of their first 11 they still made the tournament. Their best player, also a solid guard, is probably UNLV transfer Jaden Henley, averaging 17.8 a game.
Conclusion
So far we’ve had some interesting teams and players, meaning conference play should be fun. Let me know in the comments if you have anything else to add!
