The Hurricanes secured a trip to the Cotton Bowl with a statement victory over Texas A&M last weekend.
Their reward? They get to face the No. 2 seed, Ohio State, which was ranked first in most polls for most of the season. Only a three-point loss to the current No. 1 seed, Indiana, in the Big Ten Championship Game unseated the Buckeyes.
Advertisement
Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite in the Cotton Bowl, but if the Hurricanes can get the advantage in some of these key matchups, they can pull off the upset on New Year’s Eve:
1. Hurricanes cornerbacks vs. Jeremiah Smith
Miami fans know Jeremiah Smith well. The former Chaminade-Madonna star tore up South Florida football fields in high school, flirted with potentially flipping to Miami before sticking with Ohio State and became the nation’s best wide receiver.
Smith has 1,086 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. He has Pro Football Focus’ fifth-best receiving grade in the nation among receivers with 50 or more targets. Stopping him will not be easy.
Advertisement
“He’s an NFL prototype player right now,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said.
But that will be the challenge handed to whichever Hurricanes cornerback is tasked with slowing him down. It will be difficult.
2. Carson Beck vs. Caleb Downs
In addition to having the nation’s best wide receiver, the Buckeyes likely have the nation’s top safety: Caleb Downs.
The veteran defensive back has 60 tackles and an interception this season. But don’t let the low number of interceptions confuse you — Downs is dangerous. PFF gives him an 86.9 grade in coverage, which is 16th out of more than 350 safeties with 200 or more coverage snaps.
Advertisement
Beck threw for only 103 yards in the win over the Aggies, keeping his passes short as high wind played havoc with both teams’ passing games. But Miami will need to get more offense in this game, which likely means throwing downfield and keeping the ball out of Downs’ hands.
3. Hurricanes’ defensive backs vs. Julian Sayin
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin had a breakout year. He has racked up 3,323 yards with 31 touchdowns and just six interceptions. That was good enough to get him to New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist.
Although Sayin did not win the Heisman, he has arguably been the best quarterback in the nation. PFF gives him a 92.6 passing grade, which is the best mark in the nation. His 20 big-time throws are tied for 28th nationally. He is accurate; Sayin has completed 78.4 percent of his passes (and his adjusted completion percentage is 84.3 percent). His six turnover-worthy plays are the third-fewest among quarterbacks with 300 or more dropbacks.
Advertisement
Sayin has the highest passing grade in the nation on short passes (0-9 yards), the 11th-best grade on intermediate passes (10-19 yards) and the third-best grade on deep passes (20 yards or more).
In short, he has few weaknesses, and the combination of Sayin and star receivers such as Smith and Carnell Tate has been extremely difficult to stop.
4. Hurricanes’ running backs vs. Ohio State’s defensive front
Mark Fletcher Jr. carried the Hurricanes’ running game (and offense as a whole) against Texas A&M. But the Buckeyes have one of the nation’s best run defenses.
Ohio State is fifth in the nation with only 84.46 rushing yards allowed per game. PFF gives the Buckeyes the second-best run-defense grade in the nation.
Advertisement
Ohio State features some of the best run-stoppers in the nation, including defensive tackle Kayden McDonald (No. 1 among tackles with a 92.2 run-defense grade), defensive end Caden Curry (sixth among defensive ends nationally with an 86.9 grade) and linebackers Sonny Styles (12th among linebackers with an 89.8 grade) and Arvell Reese (44th nationally with an 84.5 grade).
The Hurricanes had success running between the tackles against the Aggies. Doing that against a team that has as strong of an interior defense as Ohio State will be much harder.
5. Carter Davis vs. a bad mindset
Carter Davis had a rough day against the Aggies, missing three out of four field goal attempts. Davis had been solid all season before the game. The high wind at Kyle Field clearly caused Davis’ first miss, and trying to compensate for the conditions may have played a role during the other two misses.
Advertisement
Miami is sticking with Davis as its starting kicker, Cristobal said. Now the FAU transfer needs to put the Texas A&M game in the rearview mirror and move on. The Cotton Bowl will be played in the domed AT&T Stadium, so the elements won’t be a factor.
Davis could have a huge opportunity to redeem himself on New Year’s Eve.
