The December 26 and 27th schedules for the College Football Bowl Season provides some value. The Texas Bowl approaches between a Houston team trying to win 10 games and basically hosting LSU, while Georgia Tech and BYU highlight the day. Pitt and East Carolina kick off Saturday’s slate, but Minnesota against New Mexico is where we will start on Friday.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
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New Mexico vs Minnesota (-1.5): O/U 44.5
PJ Fleck is 6-0 all-time in bowl games with Minnesota and he gets a New Mexico team that 100-percent overachieved based on preseason predictions. New Mexico was picked to finish second to last in the Mountain West and while they didn’t win the conference, 9-3 was not expected and sets them up to make a statement in Arizona versus a Big Ten team.
The Lobos have won six straight and scored at least 20 points in all six and 11 of the past 12. Getting to 20 points on a Big Ten team, though will be difficult. For Minnesota, they rank 132nd in rushing efficiency and aren’t threatening in the pass game, so there’s an avenue for the first to 20 points wins.
However, the MWC is 0-3 on the ML and ATS in bowl games so far and with Fleck’s record, Minnesota will be the play for most people. What I notice, Minnesota went 0-5 on the road this year and struggling to score in the first half. Outside of 21 first half points in a loss at Northwestern, Minnesota scored 7 or fewer points in the other four road games. New Mexico’s first half defense has been impressive during the winning streak too. I took Minnesota First Half Team Total Under 10.5 at -140 odds.
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Pick: Minnesota 1H Team Total Under 10.5 (1 unit)
Pitt (-10.5) vs East Carolina: O/U 52.5
Pittsburgh ended the season on a competitive note, playing its three toughest games to end the regular season. After five straight wins, Pitt lost to Notre Dame, beat Georgia Tech, and then lost to Miami (FL). All three were in contention for the college football playoff at the time they played too; the Panthers deserved to go from -6.5 to -10.5 point favorites.
With Mason Heintschel at QB, Pitt looks ready to take a leap and end the season on a high note, while East Carolina’s quarterback, Katin Houser, is out for this matchup, along with their offensive and defensive coordinators. This could and should be a Pitt blowout and a struggle early for ECU to find offense.
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In six road games, ECU scored more than 10 points twice (Temple, Florida Atlantic). I went Pitt -9.5 at -115 odds and East Carolina’s First Half Team Total Under 10.5 points at -130.
Pick: East Carolina First Half Team Total Under 10.5 (1 unit), Pitt -9.5 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech vs BYU (-4): O/U 55.5
BYU’s only two losses this season came against Texas Tech (34-7, 29-7), so I absolutely rate the Cougars higher, but this is a spot where you question whether BYU is really excited for this game after missing the playoffs, or if this is a spot where they prove they could have been in. Either way, I expect the defense to be at the forefront of this matchup and the clock to run as both squads have mobile quarterbacks.
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Georgia Tech’s offensive coordinator left for Florida, and that could hamper the offense of a team that lost two straight and three of the past four. The total dropped one point since opening, and gave out the Under 56.5 (-110) is playable down to 54.
Pick: Under 56.5 (1 unit)
LSU vs Houston (-1.5): O/U 42.5
LSU could have easily ended the season on a six-game losing streak, but snuck out a one-point win versus Arkansas and a three-point win against Western Kentucky. Now, LSU goes to Texas for the Texas Bowl to take on a Houston team searching for 10 wins.
LSU will have way more opt outs than Houston, and the Cougars’ starting quarterback, Connor Weigman, is a dual threat who can give the Tigers fits. He’s done it before at Texas A&M, posting a 2-0 record versus LSU. I just don’t see many reasons to take LSU here, despite the line going from +2.5 to +1 or +1.5 for LSU. I like Houston on the ML.
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Pick: Houston ML (1 unit)
Bowl Record: 3-0 +3 units
Season Record: 64-79-1 -8.68 units
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