The wait is almost over. The Ohio State Buckeyes will take the field against the Miami Hurricanes on December 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET, with everything they have worked toward this season coming down to this moment. The title defense officially begins here, as Ohio State looks to secure a path toward back-to-back College Football Playoff national championships. It will not be easy, but with Miami standing first in the way, what should fans expect?
Among all of the quarterfinal matchups, Ohio State enters as the biggest favorite, laying 9.5 points against Miami. By comparison, top-seeded Indiana is favored by just seven points over Alabama. On paper, the Buckeyes have a clear edge, and many around the sport expect them to move on.
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That is where the danger lies. Ryan Day has no doubt delivered the same message to his staff and players about avoiding “rat poison,” a term popularized by former Alabama head coach Nick Saban. It refers to the praise, hype, rankings, and media attention that can creep in and lead to complacency, pulling a team’s focus away from the simple task of getting better and winning the next game. Ohio State may be the better team, and the betting line reflects that, but that expectation is exactly what Saban warned against. The challenge is to block out the noise, stay disciplined, and do the job.
Day and the Buckeyes will aim to approach this matchup with that mindset. With that in mind, here are five reasons why Ohio State is positioned to handle Miami and advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Ohio State will make Miami quarterback Carson Beck uncomfortable
Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck speaks during the Cotton Bowl Media Day at AT&T Stadium in Dallas prior to the College Football Playoff matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes on Dec. 29, 2025.
Miami dropped two regular-season games this year, and in both losses, Carson Beck threw at least two interceptions. Against Louisville, he tossed four picks, and versus SMU, he added two more. If Ohio State wants to control this game, it starts with pressuring Beck and forcing him into rushed, risky decisions that can turn into turnovers. When Miami faced Texas A&M in the first round of the College Football Playoff, Beck was sacked only twice and threw for just 103 yards and a touchdown, with the Hurricanes doing most of their damage on the ground. Ohio State’s priority will be to shut down Mark Fletcher and the Miami run game, then make Beck win the game through the air.
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Ryan Day takes over playcalling duties for Ohio State
Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day talks to Big Ten Conference commissioner Tony Petitti prior to the Big Ten Conference championship game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Dec. 6, 2025. Ohio State lost 13-10.
It was recently announced that head coach Ryan Day will assume playcalling responsibilities, with co-offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach Brian Hartline set to depart for USF after the season. The last time Day served as Ohio State’s primary playcaller was the 2022 Peach Bowl against Georgia, when the Buckeyes erupted for 41 points against one of the nation’s best defenses. C.J. Stroud threw for nearly 350 yards and four touchdowns, while Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr both surpassed 100 receiving yards. Ohio State was a missed field goal away from knocking off the Bulldogs. With Day back behind the playsheet, there is reason to believe he may unleash that same aggressive, explosive offense against Miami and beyond.
Recent CFP history following a narrow Ohio State late-season loss
Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day shakes hands with Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore following Michigan’s 13-10 victory in 2024 at Ohio Stadium.
While the sample size is small, recent history offers encouragement. Last season, Ohio State entered the College Football Playoff after a 13–10 loss to Michigan and responded with renewed urgency, rolling through Tennessee and Oregon before defeating Texas and Notre Dame to claim a national championship. The Buckeyes are hoping for a similar response this year after a 13–10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game. Miami stands as the first obstacle in the quest for back-to-back titles. Sometimes, a setback just before the biggest games begin can sharpen a team’s edge.
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A rested Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate could be dangerous for Ohio State
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) celebrates with wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) during the first half of the Big Ten championship game
All season long, the impact of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate on this Ohio State offense has been clear. With more than three weeks off since the Big Ten Championship Game, both receivers should be fully healthy after dealing with injuries late in the year. Against Indiana, Tate caught four passes for 45 yards and a touchdown, while Smith hauled in eight receptions for 144 yards. They will look to stress the Miami secondary and win one-on-one matchups, giving Julian Sayin chances to hit explosive plays downfield. With Ryan Day calling the offense and the game being played indoors in Dallas, the setup is there for a big day through the air.
A hungry Ohio State defense
Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs (2) and linebacker Arvell Reese (8) celebrate during the NCAA football game against the Texas Longhorns at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025.
Despite the loss to Indiana, the Ohio State defense was largely solid, allowing only a handful of explosive plays. The Buckeyes sacked Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza three times and held firm against the run, yet still walked away without a win. Expect defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to turn up the aggression in this matchup. That could mean unleashing Arvell Reese more as an edge rusher and less as a quarterback spy, along with mixing in more man coverage looks. While man coverage carries risk against Miami playmakers like Malachi Toney, Ohio State’s zone schemes can sometimes feel passive. Increased pressure and timely blitzes could force Beck into quick reads and costly mistakes. Players like Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese, and Sonny Styles will be eager to set the tone and deliver statement performances on this stage.
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Ohio State vs Miami: 5 reasons Buckeyes will be ‘Canes in Cotton Bowl
