A new year brings new opportunities — to build on the positives from last year, to improve on a disappointing season, or to finally reach expected potential.
One or more of those could apply in 2026 for players on the verge of a breakout year. These are players who, for whatever reason, haven’t fully reached expectations, despite occasional flashes of excellence.
With the help of MLB.com’s beat writers, here is one breakout candidate for each team.
This feels like an off-the-board pick, given that Ponce just signed a three-year, $30 million deal, but he’s a fascinating story, coming back to MLB after four years pitching in Japan and Korea. Last season, Ponce won the KBO’s MVP Award and absolutely dominated opposing hitters with 252 strikeouts over 180 2/3 innings. Last time we saw him in the big leagues, though, he was a fringe reliever with the Pirates who couldn’t stick. Ponce’s velocity has ticked up and he seems to have unlocked something. So, at age 31, we could witness the late breakout Ponce has been working toward. — Keegan Matheson
After an underwhelming 60-game debut in 2024, Holliday showed significant strides in ‘25, when he ranked second on the O’s with 149 games played and slashed .242/.314/.375 with 21 doubles, three triples, 17 home runs, 55 RBIs and 17 stolen bases. He also improved defensively at second base, a position he learned on the fly in Spring Training 2024 after coming up through the Minors as a shortstop. It was a good season, but there should be even better ones to come for Holliday. After all, he’s still only 22 years old. — Jake Rill
Simpson got called up earlier than expected, spent some time in the Minors and still used his elite speed to steal 44 bases in 109 games. He also batted .295, displaying a special ability to put the bat on the ball. There’s still room for improvement, specifically in the outfield and, to a lesser extent, in his patience at the plate. And he’ll have to earn whatever playing time he gets in a crowded outfield. But the potential for Simpson to steal 60-plus bases in a full season makes him a player to watch heading into next year. — Adam Berry
Last year’s rookie season, shortened because he wasn’t called up until June and then sustained a season-ending oblique injury on Sept. 2, was just a start. Over a full, 162-game season, Anthony has all the tools and maturity to turn into an elite player. He is a left-handed hitter who has no problem hitting against lefties. He has a perfect blend of patience and power at the plate. Just how much power Anthony grows into in his first full season will determine his level of impact. Defensively, he can play an above average left and right field. — Ian Browne
“The Martian” could finally be ready to live up to the immense potential the Yankees have touted for years. Still just 22, the switch-hitting Domínguez lost critical development time to the pandemic and Tommy John surgery, spending most of the second half on the bench in 2025. He went to winter ball to focus on sharpening his defense in left field and his swing from the right side of the plate, which is his natural side. It would be no surprise if Domínguez’s touted blend of speed and strength all comes together in a big way. — Bryan Hoch
The Guardians promoted Messick from Triple-A Columbus on Aug. 20, and he quickly showed he had the right demeanor and stuff to succeed in the big leagues. As manager Stephen Vogt put it before Messick’s second career start, “He’s coming at you and is not afraid of the strike zone.” Messick recorded a 2.72 ERA with 38 strikeouts and six walks in 39 2/3 innings over seven starts down the stretch, and held opponents to a miniscule 29.8% hard-hit rate. If his first MLB stint is a harbinger for what’s to come, Messick may be set for a big 2026. — Tim Stebbins
Caglianone showed that he beat Triple-A with both of his stints (including a rehab assignment) there in 2025. But the big leagues proved to be more difficult, with the 22-year-old hitting just .157 with a .532 OPS in 62 games for the Royals. Caglianone is still so young — both in age and professional baseball experience — and his ceiling is still so high. The Royals will give him a chance to win an Opening Day roster spot and make the necessary adjustments to be an everyday player for them. Because if he does, Caglianone’s power immediately transforms this offense. — Anne Rogers
Detroit’s 2025 playoff run might not have happened without the hard-throwing Melton, who made an immediate impact as a midseason call-up to the rotation before shifting to the bullpen down the stretch. He helped the Tigers take a must-win game in Cleveland in the final week of the regular season, then rebounded from a rough postseason debut to beat the Mariners in Game 4 of the ALDS. The Tigers see him as a starter long term and have him in their rotation for now, but could shift him back to the bullpen if they add a veteran starter. — Jason Beck
You could argue that Keaschall broke out last year, and you wouldn’t be wrong. He was electric in 49 games as a rookie, but that’s the reason he’s on this list — he only played 49 games. Keaschall dealt with a couple of significant injuries, and he’ll be looking to stay on the field in ‘26. If he does, you can expect more of what he showed in ‘25 — outstanding bat-to-ball skill, extra-base pop, and athletic and aggressive baserunning — along with what the club expects will be improved defense. — Matthew Leach
Boston reportedly had interest in acquiring Teel, who was part of its four-player trade package in exchange for Garrett Crochet. It’s understandable, considering Teel’s talent, but he’s going nowhere. The left-handed hitter is a tremendous athlete, and he could play some in the outfield with Edgar Quero also in place behind the plate. But Teel just got started in ‘25, slashing .288/.376/.457 with all eight of his home runs after the All-Star break. Catching is gold, according to GM Chris Getz, and Teel has the most value supporting that analysis. — Scott Merkin
Soriano was poised for a big breakout in 2025 in his second year as a starting pitcher after a season in relief. And while he showed flashes, he was inconsistent, with a 4.26 ERA in 169 innings. But he has elite stuff with a power sinker that sits in the high 90s to go along with his knuckle-curve and splitter. With new pitching coach Mike Maddux, Soriano could become an All-Star for the first time. — Rhett Bollinger
Matthews, a first-round pick out of Nebraska in 2023 as a shortstop, made his debut last season and homered three times in a two-game span in Arizona last July, showing a glimpse of what he’s capable of doing. He’ll get some playing time at second base and center field in the spring and will need to cut down on his strikeouts. For the season at Triple-A, he slashed .260/.371/.458 with 17 homers, 64 RBIs and 41 stolen bases. He hit for the cycle in May, but also struck out 139 times in 419 at-bats. — Brian McTaggart
Morales showed all the makings of a potential future frontline starter scouts project him to be in his big league stint with the A’s in 2025. In a year that began at Double-A Midland, he forced his way to the Majors in August and appeared in 10 games (nine starts) for the A’s, posting a 3.14 ERA with 43 strikeouts and 18 walks in 48 2/3 innings while showing off an electric fastball and nasty sweeping slider. For 2026, Morales, 23, will be counted on as a key member of the A’s rotation. — Martín Gallegos
Seattle’s front office is bullish on its newly acquired lefty leverage reliever, whose under-the-hood numbers paint the picture of a high-velocity strike-thrower who they can pair with fellow southpaw Gabe Speier. They could’ve used that extra arm in the postseason and were willing to part with coveted prospect Harry Ford to net him. Behind the scenes, some in the organization believe that Ferrer can be their lefty version of Matt Brash. And they’d coveted him since all the way back in 2019, when attempting to acquire him at that year’s Trade Deadline. — Daniel Kramer
The Rangers’ 2021 first-rounder had a quality rookie season, posting a 3.86 ERA in 151 2/3 innings as part of one of the best rotations in club history. Though pitching coach Mike Maddux departed for the Angels, Jordan Tiegs was elevated from assistant pitching coach to the main guy, putting Leiter in a perfect position to succeed with the coach that’s been around him for most of his professional career. Leiter has always had the talent, and if he continues to refine his command and control to limit the walks, he’ll get even closer to reaching his full potential in year two. — Kennedi Landry
Hernández debuted in 2023 and showed enough promise in 2024 to think 2025 would be his breakout season. But while constructing a 3.41 ERA over 39 appearances for Atlanta, the 29-year-old reliever walked 18.3 percent of the batters he faced. He had just a 5.9 percent walk rate while making 16 big league appearances in 2024. While last year’s results were maddening, there’s plenty of reason to still believe in this big Cuban hurler, who has a 97.7 mph average velo with his four-seamer and an 89 mph average with his slider. There’s hope new Braves pitching coach Jeremy Hefner will help Hernández properly utilize his impressive weapons. — Mark Bowman
Last year, first-time manager Clayton McCullough correctly predicted right-hander Edward Cabrera as a breakout star. With that kind of track record, why not go with his 2026 pick? Lopez, who was the club’s second baseman until late May, still tied for the fourth-most defensive runs saved (seven) among MLB shortstops (min. 950 innings) after moving to the other side of the infield. Though Lopez finished with an 86 OPS+ in his first full MLB season, his 15 homers were the most by a Marlins shortstop (min. 111 games) since Hanley Ramirez’s 21 in 2010. — Christina De Nicola
In fairness, McLean broke out to an extent in 2024, coming up in August and proving to be a singular bright spot down the stretch. But he made just eight starts, which means the Mets’ top prospect will enter 2026 with a much longer runway to prove he’s the frontline starter everyone around the organization believes he can be. Featuring some of the best pure stuff in baseball, McLean certainly looks the part of an ace. An NL Rookie of the Year favorite (he just barely retained his eligibility), McLean should slot near the top of the Opening Day rotation with a chance to really show what he can do over 30-plus Major League starts. — Anthony DiComo
Crews, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 Draft out of LSU, was limited to just 85 games in his first full Major League season because of an oblique strain. When in the lineup, Crews slashed .208/.280/.352 with a .632 OPS. He tallied eight doubles, two triples, 10 homers, 27 RBIs and 17 stolen bases. At the Winter Meetings, newly hired manager Blake Butera said, “I think the world of Dylan. … What we saw last year was not the Dylan Crews we know.” — Jessica Camerato
Stott has been a breakout candidate the past couple of years, but always fallen short. But maybe 2026 is finally the year. Stott made a seemingly simple mechanical adjustment at the plate in the summer — he lowered his hands — and he took off. He batted .234 with a .636 OPS before the All-Star break. He batted .294 with an .855 OPS after the break. If Stott can carry that fix into 2026, maybe he can finally make his first NL All-Star team and challenge to hit .300, which is something he has the talent to do. — Todd Zolecki
Uribe loves the spotlight and it looks like the 25-year-old, flamethrowing righty is going to find his way into the middle of it in 2026 — especially if the Brewers trade All-Star closer Trevor Megill. Even if Megill stays, Uribe will surely pick up some save opportunities after delivering a 1.67 ERA and seven saves in 75 regular-season appearances, taking over closer duties down the stretch and into the postseason after Megill suffered a forearm injury. Uribe struck out 90 batters with elite stuff, ranking among the Statcast leaders in barrel percentage (100th percentile), fastball velocity (98th percentile) and expected ERA (94th percentile) with the sort of flair that fills highlight reels. — Adam McCalvy
While it might seem odd picking a player who just won a Gold Glove as a candidate for a breakout in 2026, that’s the intention of Winn. The dazzling 23-year-old shortstop, who committed just three errors this past season, was left off All-Star and All-MLB teams largely because of his regression at the plate. He started slowly and slashed .253/.310/.363 with nine home runs and 51 RBIs. Winn’s average exit velocity (88.3 mph, 24th percentile) and hard-hit rate (34.6%, 16th percentile) lagged badly. He is hopeful that an offseason knee surgery will help him be more stable and stronger at the plate. — John Denton
Shaw spent the bulk of the ‘25 season in the big leagues with the Cubs and finished as a Gold Glove finalist at third base and with down-ballot votes in the NL Rookie of the Year race. He did that while hitting .226/.295/.394 with 13 homers, 21 doubles, 44 RBIs and 17 steals in 126 games. After a tough first half (.280 SLG, .556 OPS, 60 wRC+), Shaw enjoyed a much better showing after the All-Star break (.522 SLG, .839 OPS, 130 wRC+). Chicago is hoping that second-half performance is a sign of a breakout season to come. — Jordan Bastian
For most of 2024, Jones and Paul Skenes were the Allegheny Electric Company, mowing down batters with triple-digit heat. A few shaky starts and an oblique injury did inflate Jones’ season stats a bit, though, and then he missed all of 2025 after elbow surgery. His rehab is going well and he’s going to slide back into the Pirates’ rotation at some point next year, and he could be the staff’s big breakout star. He was experimenting with a sinker in Spring Training last year, which could help him work north to south more, making his two plus-plus pitches, the four-seamer and slider, play up more. — Alex Stumpf
Marte, who struggled offensively and defensively as a third baseman during his brief big league career, was moved to right field after the All-Star break in 2025 and seemed to feel a weight lift off his shoulders. The club liked how instinctual he was playing the outfield and noticed it freed him up offensively as well. Marte was slated to get more reps in right field and center field during Dominican winter ball. With more experience, he could really come into his own as a hitter and fielder in 2026. — Mark Sheldon
The Diamondbacks acquired Moreno from the Blue Jays prior to the 2023 season and he helped contribute to their surprising run to the World Series that year. Moreno’s OPS+ has increased in each of his seasons in Arizona, but staying healthy has been an issue for him. Last year, he made major strides behind the plate in terms of game calling. If he stays healthy, it feels like 2026 is the year he can take his game to another level. — Steve Gilbert
Expectations were high for Sasaki in his first season stateside, and he didn’t truly live up to the hype that followed him from Japan until the postseason. After missing months with a shoulder injury, Sasaki returned in a brand-new relief role and dominated out of the ‘pen. The stint showed that Sasaki’s electric stuff was still there; it was merely a matter of unlocking it. Figuring out how to have his best stuff working from the beginning – and in his return to starting pitching – will be key for him and the Dodgers moving forward. — Sonja Chen
The Giants’ No. 1 prospect went only 3-for-28 (.107) with 13 strikeouts while getting a 10-game cup of coffee in September, but he didn’t look overmatched at the plate and flashed elite power by posting a 68.8% hard-hit rate. Eldridge has been the subject of trade speculation because he shares a position with Rafael Devers, another left-handed power hitter who is under contract through 2033, but the Giants believe they could accommodate both by having them split time at first base and DH, which could be a big boost for their offense next year. — Maria Guardado
There are a whole bunch of prospects and young players on this list. Fermin, a catcher entering his age-31 season, doesn’t exactly fit the prototype. But, at long last, Fermin figures to be presented with the role of primary backstop, after he’d split time with Salvador Perez for years in Kansas City. With a full Spring Training under his belt, Fermin could serve as an anchor for what figures to be a new-look rotation. Not to mention, there’s some promise in his bat as well. — AJ Cassavell
Beck hit .258 with 16 home runs and 53 RBIs in his first season as a Major League regular – with occasional blazing hot periods that illustrated why he was selected 38th overall in 2022 out of Tennessee. There were also droughts of missed RBI opportunities, and he struck out 174 times against 43 walks. The key is Beck’s willingness to learn. He applied advanced data to show measurable defensive improvement during the second half. If similar improvements occur offensively, he can meet expectations as a lineup force. — Thomas Harding
