It sounds strange to say, but it is true: Nikola Jokic missing a month is great news for Denver.
Not great that he’s out, but great in the sense that the hypertension of his left knee that will sideline Jokic for at least the next month is the best possible outcome from what looked like a far worse injury when it happened.
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While it may “only” be a month (although don’t be shocked if he is out through the All-Star break), Jokic’s absence is going to change things with the Nuggets, the Western Conference playoff chase, and the MVP race (it changes everything for people betting on NBA awards futures). Let’s break it all down, starting with the team itself.
How Nuggets change without Jokic
Before Monday night, the Nuggets were already dealing with a rash of injuries. Three starters were out: Aaron Gordon (hamstring strain), Christian Braun (ankle sprain) and Cam Johnson (a knee hyperextension, just like Jokic).
Despite the bad luck, the Nuggets could always rely on Jokic, one of the league’s most durable players — he had played fewer than 70 games in a season only once in his career (69 in 2022-23). He hasn’t missed more than five games in a row since the 2017-18 season.
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Without him, Denver has to find a way to keep its head above water in a deep West. The Nuggets remain arguably the biggest threat to the Thunder in the NBA, but only if Denver enters the playoffs with everyone healthy.
Denver also needs several players to step up. For the next month at least, even more playmaking falls on the shoulders of Jamal Murray, who deserves to be a first-time All-Star this season, averaging 25.2 points and 7 assists a game, shooting 45.4% from beyond the arc. He has to be the alpha on this roster now.
Beyond Murray, this is a chance for some key guys to get paid. Peyton Watson will be a restricted free agent after this season and can make his case in the next month for a big payday. Tim Hardaway Jr. is in Denver on a minimum contract, here is his chance to prove to Denver and others that he deserves a bigger deal.
Also, Jonas Valanciunas — who was signed to back up Jokic —needs to step up and be a solid anchor in the middle on both ends of the court for the next month.
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How West playoff race changes without Jokic
Denver is at 22-10 and sits as the No. 3 seed in the West, however, they remain just three games out of the play-in in a deep West. Without Jokic, the Nuggets will slide down the standings, raising two key questions.
1) How far do they slide? Can Denver win enough games in the next month to stay in the top six in the West? Or, at least stay within striking distance of the top-10? The good news for Denver is it is entering its softest part of the schedule — Tom Haberstroh noted on his podcast that the Nuggets’ opponents through the end of January have just a .434 winning percentage. That helps, there are some winnable games in there. Still, the Nuggets need some guys to step up.
2) Do the Nuggets end up on the same side of the bracket as the Thunder? In an injury-free world, we would be headed for a Nuggets vs. Thunder Western Conference Finals (that would feel like the de facto NBA Finals). Now, these teams may end up on the same side of the bracket and meet in the second round — maybe even the first if things go really poorly enough for Denver in the next month.
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A Denver/OKC second-round showdown would clear the path for Houston, San Antonio or another team to slide in and make the Western Conference Finals.
How Jokic’s injury changes MVP race
Jokic was the frontrunner — or at very least the co-frontrunner — with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP race. In Tim Bontemps 1/3rd of the season straw poll at ESPN, voters had Jokic and SGA lapping the field.
The best people to talk about this race are the betting experts from NBC Sports, starting with Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper).
“Jokić is likely to miss a month with the hyperextension and bone bruising which will make his qualification for MVP fairly difficult on top the massive impact it will have for the Nuggets trying to avoid the play-in seeding. The clear advantage goes to SGA in this case who has somewhere between and 85% to 90% to win now; the only realistic path to victory for an outsider is if the defending champ sustains a long-term injury as well. In that black swan event, I think Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown all have compelling cases and would be great long shots at current prices because the current second tier of players face qualification questions themselves as Doncic, Giannis and Wemby have already amassed significant missed time.”
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Trysta Krick (@trysta-krick) takes a slightly different angle but comes to the same conclusion.
“When it comes to winning MVP, the criteria are actually pretty simple. Either you’re the best player on one of the top one or two teams in your conference, or you’re so far ahead of the field that voters are willing to overlook team record altogether.
Last season was a perfect example of how that balance plays out. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić were essentially neck and neck from a production standpoint, but Oklahoma City’s sustained dominance all year — combined with the reality that Jokić had already won the award three times — tipped the scales. The tiebreaker went to Shai.
This year, it felt like Jokić had regained momentum until the injury, and now the race once again looks like Shai’s to lose. There simply isn’t another team operating at OKC’s level, and no other player has separated himself from the pack the way Shai has over the full body of work.
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The other candidates all come with caveats. Luka Dončić? The Lakers’ record just isn’t strong enough. Jalen Brunson? Same issue — the Knicks sitting as a three seed hurts his case. Jaylen Brown? Possibly, but Boston has been inconsistent at times, and the Eastern Conference is far more congested in the middle than the West.
At this point, it would take a seismic shift for the MVP to come out of the East at all. As things stand, the combination of elite individual performance and team success still points in one direction — and it’s Shai’s award to lose.
