Welcome to The Playbook for Week 18, which kicks off Saturday with a pair of games with playoff implications.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
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DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are provided only for Sunday’s main slate, which is why there are no values for the games scheduled for Saturday or Sunday night. For a closer look at the best values for Sunday’s main slate, you can also take a look at Week 18’s DraftKings DFS cheat sheet.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
CAR-TB | SEA-SF | NO-ATL | CLE-CIN | GB-MIN | DAL-NYG | TEN-JAX | IND-HOU
NYJ-BUF | DET-CHI | LAC-DEN| KC-LV| ARI-LAR | MIA-NE| WAS-PHI | BAL-PIT
Projected score: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 22
Lineup locks: Rico Dowdle, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans
Fantasy scoop: Jalen McMillan exploded for seven catches and 114 yards on nine targets against the Dolphins on Sunday. Despite the big game, McMillan can’t be trusted as a flex option just yet. The second-year receiver was limited to 56% of the snaps for the second week in a row and remains in what is essentially a four-man committee at receiver. In terms of snaps played, McMillan (35) trailed both Chris Godwin Jr. (49) and Mike Evans (47) and was tied with Emeka Egbuka (35) on Sunday. McMillan totaled 53 yards on five targets during his prior two games with the trio (Weeks 15-16), and one of them (Week 16) was against these same Panthers (McMillan posted a 2-15-0 line on three targets in the loss). McMillan should be left on benches against a Panthers defense that has allowed 11 touchdowns and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to receivers this season.
Over/under: 44.4 (9th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 54% (16th highest)
Projected score: 49ers 26, Seahawks 25
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: After failing to reach 20 fantasy points in any of his first five games of the season, Brock Purdy has hit the mark in three straight. Purdy scored three or more touchdowns in each of the three games, including a game with five passing TDs in Week 16 and one with a pair of rushing TDs in Week 17. Despite the hot streak, Purdy will be a risky start in Week 18 against Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks despite having faced the fifth-most pass attempts. Only three quarterbacks have reached 20 points against them this season, and Purdy was not one of them (16.8 points in Week 1). Purdy is a fringe starting option.
Shadow Report: In related news, San Francisco receivers should be downgraded against a Seattle defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position. The Seahawks have allowed the second-fewest yards, lowest yards per target (6.3) and third-lowest catch rate (57%) to receivers despite having faced the fifth-most pass attempts. Only two wideouts have reached 15 fantasy points against them since Week 7. Jennings’ target share has dipped as of late, so he’s best viewed as a WR3, whereas Ricky Pearsall, who put up 108 yards against Seattle in Week 1, is a solid flex.
Over/under: 50.2 (5th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 54% (15th highest)
Projected score: Falcons 23, Saints 20
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr.
Fantasy scoop: Tyler Shough continues to deliver the goods, reaching a career high with 21.9 fantasy points on Sunday. The rookie has produced 17-plus fantasy points in six of his eight starts, including five in a row. Shough has produced in different ways, using his legs earlier this season (28-124-2 rushing during Weeks 12-15) and using his arm more the past two games (300-plus passing yards in both and a total of three passing TDs). On the other hand, Shough’s ceiling is limited (his best weekly finish is seventh) and he’s set to face an Atlanta defense that held him to 7.9 fantasy points (his lowest total in his eight starts) in Week 12. Shough might have a bright future, but he’s not an ideal Week 18 streamer.
Shadow Report: Upgrade New Orleans’ receivers against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the position over the past eight weeks, including the most to the perimeter. The Falcons have allowed 19 touchdowns to receivers (fourth most), and Tetairoa McMillan, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Adonai Mitchell have each cleared 24 points against them since Week 11. Olave is the only Saints receiver we can count on, and he’s well positioned for another big game.
Over/under: 43 (10th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 58% (11th highest)
Projected score: Bengals 24, Browns 16
Lineup locks: Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Harold Fannin Jr.
Shadow Report: Jerry Jeudy is a candidate to see DJ Turner shadow coverage this week. Turner has shadowed often this season and has done very well in those spots. The 13 receivers he has shadowed averaged 9.2 fantasy PPG in the game, with only three reaching 13 points. The Bengals have shown well against receivers overall, having allowed them the second-fewest catches, third-fewest yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points. Only eight receivers have reached 16.0 fantasy points against the Bengals this season, and five of them did so prior to Week 6. Jeudy is a weak flex option in the season finale.
Shadow Report: Downgrade the Bengals’ receivers against a Browns defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the fewest over the past eight weeks. After holding Pittsburgh’s receivers to 60 yards on 20 targets on Sunday, Cleveland has allowed the fewest catches and yards to the position. Only four receivers have reached 17.0 fantasy points against the Browns this season. It was a long time ago, but Bengals receivers totaled 59 yards on nine targets when these teams met in Week 1.
Over/under: 39.8 (13th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 78% (7th highest)
Projected score: Vikings 22, Packers 16
Lineup lock: Justin Jefferson
Fantasy scoop: The Packers are locked into the NFC’s 7-seed and are expected to rest key players this week. Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed will be inactive or play limited snaps and thus should not be near lineups. Malik Willis, who is fresh off a 31.5-point effort against Baltimore, might also sit out, but even if he plays, he’ll be a poor streaming option against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Unless you’re throwing a dart on someone such as Chris Brooks, Bo Melton or Josh Whyle in a DFS tournament, the Packers’ offense should be avoided this week. On the other hand, the Vikings’ offense should be upgraded against the Packers’ second- and third-team defenders.
Shadow Report: Whichever receivers are on the field for Green Bay will have their hands full against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers, as well as the second fewest to the perimeter this season. Minnesota has surrendered the third-fewest catches and fifth-fewest TDs (nine) to the position. Only 11 receivers have reached double-digit fantasy points against Minnesota this season.
Over/under: 37.6 (15th highest)
Win probability: Vikings 71% (9th highest)
Projected score: Giants 29, Cowboys 27
Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Wan’Dale Robinson, George Pickens
Fantasy scoop: After handling a career-high 48% target share against Las Vegas on Sunday, Robinson leads the NFL with a 36% share since Week 9. His shares by game during the eight-game span are as follows: 34%, 33%, 31%, 41%, 33%, 29%, 46% and 48%. Robinson’s fantasy output has been a bit boom/bust (six games with 15-plus points but fewer than 9 points six times), but the heavy usage has translated to the 11th-most fantasy points at the position this season. Robinson is locked in as a fringe WR1 and is an elite DFS play this week in a terrific matchup. Speaking of which …
Shadow Report: We’re upgrading New York’s receivers against a struggling Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers this season, including the second most to the perimeter. Dallas has allowed the most yardage and touchdowns (26) and sits top two in yards per target (9.8) and catch rate (69%) allowed to receivers. Robinson remains a lineup lock and Darius Slayton a Week 18 deep sleeper/DFS punt.
Over/under: 56 (highest)
Win probability: Giants 55% (13th highest)
Projected score: Jaguars 29, Titans 17
Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Jakobi Meyers
Fantasy scoop: Chig Okonkwo is on a bit of a heater, having posted 14-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. Okonkwo scored in both games, but although he saw a season-high eight targets in Week 16, he fell to three in Week 17. That’s notable, as he averaged 4.4 targets per game during his first 14 games of the season and failed to reach 12.0 fantasy points in any of those outings. With Gunnar Helm also involved, Okonkwo remains a part-time player (he played only 51% of the snaps on Sunday) and is no more than a midrange TE2 against a Jaguars defense that has been generous to tight ends (seventh-most fantasy points allowed) but held him to 29 yards on five targets in Week 13.
Shadow Report: Expect Darrell Baker Jr. to shadow Brian Thomas Jr. on his perimeter routes this week, as he did when these teams met in Week 13. In that game, Thomas was limited to 28 yards on three targets, whereas Meyers went off for 6-90-1 on six targets. The Titans are fresh off allowing 25.9 fantasy points to Chris Olave and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points, highest catch rate (70%) and second-highest yards per target (9.6) to receivers this season. Thomas is already hard enough to trust, and although we don’t need to be too worried about Baker, that matchup will free up Meyers and Parker Washington for production boosts.
Over/under: 45.5 (7th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 87% (4th highest)
Projected score: Texans 23, Colts 15
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Nico Collins
Shadow Report: If Sauce Gardner is able to play this week, he’s likely to shadow Collins. Gardner shadowed in his first game with the Colts (vs. Drake London in Week 10) and also did last week against Brian Thomas Jr. When these teams met in Week 13, Charvarius Ward shadowed Collins (Gardner left that game injured on the first play). With Ward out and Gardner (hopefully) in, he figures to handle Collins this time around. Expectations for Collins should be lowered only if Gardner plays.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Colts receivers against a Texans defense that has allowed eight TDs, the lowest catch rate (54%) and second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, as well as the lowest EPA against the pass. Only seven receivers have reached 13 points against them, and the only two who reached 18 were superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. Michael Pittman Jr., who was held to 13 yards on four targets in the Week 13 meeting between these teams, is the only Colts receiver who should be considered for lineups and, especially with Riley Leonard under center, he’s no more than a risky WR3/flex.
Over/under: 38.4 (14th highest)
Win probability: Texans 78% (8th highest)
Projected score: Bills 31, Jets 15
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III, Breece Hall
Fantasy scoop: In four games with Brady Cook under center, Adonai Mitchell has had one big game (6-58-1 receiving line in Week 15) but has fallen short of 7.5 points in his other three outings. Mitchell has struggled for consistency despite a solid 7.5 targets per game (23% share), as well as a massive 47% share of the team’s air yards during the span. Mitchell’s usage sets him up for a potential splash play or two, but he’ll have his hands full this week against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest catches and fantasy points to receivers. Mitchell is barely on the WR3 radar.
Over/under: 45.6 (6th highest)
Win probability: Bills 95% (highest)
Projected score: Bears 29, Lions 25
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams
Fantasy scoop: Colston Loveland is fresh off a 6-94-1 receiving line on a career-high 10 targets against the 49ers on Sunday night. Loveland has reached 20 points twice this season, though he has been held short of 13 points in his other 12 games. That includes fewer than 10.5 points in three of his past five outings. Loveland is certainly trending up, but prior to Sunday, he had seen six or fewer targets in seven straight games. The rookie is best viewed as a back-end TE1 in the regular-season finale against Detroit.
Over/under: 54.4 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Bears 63% (10th highest)
Projected score: Broncos 25, Chargers 16
Lineup locks: RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton
Fantasy scoop: Justin Herbert will be rested for this game, with Trey Lance set to start at quarterback. It’s possible the Chargers choose to rest other starters for some or all of this game, so Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen and Oronde Gadsden all carry substantial risk. That risk is baked into the projections of each player, though this is a situation to monitor until game time.
Shadow Report: When on the field, Johnston is likely to draw shadow coverage from Pat Surtain II, as he did when these teams met in Week 3. Johnston actually posted a solid stat line in that game (6-89-0 on 10 targets), though his production hasn’t been nearly as good or consistent since the first month of the season. Including that first meeting, Surtain has shadowed nine wide receivers this season, with those receivers averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game and none clearing 15.3. Even if Surtain doesn’t shadow, this is a tough matchup across the board for Johnston, Allen and McConkey (who, by the way, might be rested along with other key starters for all or some of this game). Denver has allowed a league-low six TDs and the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position despite facing the seventh-most WR targets. Only four receivers have reached 16 fantasy points against the Broncos. Downgrade the Chargers’ passing game against a Broncos squad motivated to secure the top seed in the AFC.
Over/under: 40.8 (12th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 79% (6th highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 18, Raiders 16
Lineup lock: Ashton Jeanty
Fantasy scoop: With Brock Bowers done for the season, Michael Mayer stepped in and caught nine passes for 89 yards on 10 targets against the Giants on Sunday. The 2023 second-rounder also had a big game when Bowers was sidelined in Week 6 (5-50-1 on seven targets). Though he posted a dud the following week in place of Bowers (1-10-0 on two targets), that was a bit of an outlier, with the Raiders running only 30 offensive snaps in a 31-0 loss. Across the three games, Mayer played 92% of the snaps and handled a massive 28% target share. He’s likely to work as Kenny Pickett‘s top target in Week 18 and can be viewed as a fringe TE1.
Over/under: 34.7 (16th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 56% (12th highest)
Projected score: Rams 32, Cardinals 19
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: It was reported last weekend that Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) would play limited snaps against the Bengals in Week 17. That proved true, and the results were even worse than expected, as Harrison was held without a single target while playing 31% of the snaps. This, after Harrison was held to 14 yards on three targets while playing 50% of the snaps in Week 16. Harrison was ruled out for Week 18, so we should expect Wilson’s dominance to continue, especially in a good matchup against a Los Angeles defense that has been fairly generous to receivers (top 10 in catches and yardage allowed).
Over/under: 51.3 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Rams 90% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, De’Von Achane, TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle
Fantasy scoop: With Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins (IR) out last week, the Patriots’ WR usage was as follows: Kyle Williams (22 routes, five targets), Efton Chism III (18 routes, two targets), Diggs (17 routes, six targets), DeMario Douglas (four routes, two targets). Diggs, who rested in the fourth quarter along with Maye and other starters, had a big game (6-101-1 on six targets) and remains a lineup lock. Williams was limited to 20 yards but was the de facto No. 2 receiver and should play that role again this week if Boutte remains out. In that scenario, Williams would remain a viable DFS punt ($4,300) despite the Week 17 dud. Miami has allowed 17 touchdowns (sixth most) to receivers this season and sits top 10 in points allowed to the position over the past eight and four weeks.
Over/under: 50.3 (4th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 81% (5th highest)
Projected score: Eagles 23, Commanders 19
Lineup locks: None
Fantasy scoop: The Eagles are expected to rest their starters this week, which means usual lineup locks such as Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will be out or severely limited. This would generally be a downgrade spot for the Washington offense, but facing the Eagles’ backup defenders makes Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel more palatable, even with Josh Johnson likely under center.
Over/under: 42.5 (11th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 87% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Steelers 23, Ravens 22
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: With DK Metcalf serving the first leg of his two-game suspension and Calvin Austin III sidelined with an injury last week, the Steelers’ WR usage was as follows: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (38 routes, nine targets), Adam Thielen (37 routes, five targets), Scotty Miller (31 routes, six targets) and Roman Wilson (one route, zero targets). Granted, they were dealing with a tough Cleveland pass defense, but the receivers were not productive, combining for 60 yards and zero touchdowns on 20 targets. Neither MVS, Thielen nor Miller has posted a double-digit fantasy game this season. Even in a better matchup this week against a Ravens defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers, the Steelers’ WR group should be avoided.
Over/under: 45.1 (8th highest)
Win probability: Steelers 54% (14th highest)
