MBB Preview: Mizzou hosts the Florida Gators to open SEC play

Mizzou vs Florida

When | 7:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, January 3rd

Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, MO

TV | SEC Network

Radio | Tiger Radio Network

Twitter | @MizzouHoops

ESPN win probability | 33.2% chance

The Starters

Mizzou (10-3)

G: Anthony Robinson II (JR, 10.9 PPG)

G: Annor Boateng (SO, 4.9 PPG)

G: Jacob Crews (SR, 13.9 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.2 PPG)

C: Shawn Phillips, Jr. (SR, 8.0 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Sebastian Mack (JR, 91. PPG)

No. 22 Florida (9-4)

F: Alex Condon (JR, 14.3 PPG)

F: Thomas Haugh (JR, 16.7 PPG)

G: Boogie Fland (SO, 11.4 PPG)

G: Xaivian Lee (SR, 12.2 PPG)

C: Reuben Chinyelu (JR, 10.7 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Urban Klavzar (JR, 8.9 PPG)

Note: these starting lineups are projected.

Get to know the Florida Gators

First, a quick excerpt from Sam Snelling’s preseason preview:

Clearly you can expect the interior to be every bit as good as they were last year. Florida’s offensive rebounding was 5th in the country, their 2-point shooting was 29th, and they were in the 94th percentile at the rim. All the things the Florida bigs were last year, you expect them to be again. Then this experiment all comes down to the talented Boogie Fland …. If Fland is the guy, the Gators are contending for a second national championship. If he’s a slightly altered version of who he was last year, the Gators will still be good. But they’ll take a step back.“

The NCAA champions enter Mizzou Arena looking to chomp the Tigers, who didn’t end 2025 on a good note and are reeling from one of the worst defeats in school history against Illinois.

A Christmas break later, Mizzou hasn’t faced competition since December 22nd, but will a week of practice and reset be enough to face a goliath of the SEC?

Heading into the season, Florida was heavily favored to win the conference and according to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Gators have the 11th-best odds to claim the crown of the NCAA once again. The 2025 Gator team was able to dominate its opponents with a loaded roster, most of which is returning this season. Unlike many previous national champions, Florida will look quite similar, minus the loss of the backcourt. Plus, Arkansas transfer Boogie Fland enters the fold.

Each starter on the roster averages at least ten points per game and the bench also possesses a load of talent.

Regardless of who starts and what evolves with the rotation, the Gators’ three main big men should see the floor a lot, and when they’re not they still have Micah Handlogten available as well. There is no issue here with the Gators depth on the interior.

Alex Condon, one of the biggest names on the roster, also averages 8.9 rebounds per game alongside his 14.3 points. His rebound efficiency lands him in the top 45 of players across the country. On the road, the forward averages a field goal success rate of 41.9 percent, about 17 percent lower than when at home (Condon has played nine games at home, but only three on the road).

Averaging double digit boards, sitting at ninth nationally, is returner Rueben Chinyelu. This year he’s also figured out how to make a weapon of himself offensively.

The Gators’ leading man as of late is Thomas Haugh. The junior is currently averaging 16.7 points per game with no hint of slowing down. Unlike Condon, he’s lethal from beyond the arc and actually averages higher success rates on the road versus home. In three away games, Haugh sees 57.5 percent of his shots fall from the field and north of 40 percent from three.

Additionally, the Gators are putting up these numbers against other good teams. According to KenPom, Florida’s strength of schedule lands them at #33. Meanwhile, Mizzou’s noncon play has the Tigers all the way down in the 350’s.

Overall, KenPom also lists Florida as the 13th best team in the NCAA.

The Gators’ three losses this season come with a four-point defeat on Thanksgiving to TCU, a one-point thriller to then-No. 4 Duke and another four-point blow from then-No.5 UConn. Florida can hold its weight against top tier teams, and unfortunately Mizzou can’t say the same about themselves quite yet.

Three Keys to the Game

Rebound.

Florida comes to Mizzou Arena highly efficient on the glass. With Mizzou’s height, it’s an area of the game they win quite often and it’s even more important to find any advantage possible against a team like Florida. The Gators have made countless opponents pay the price off of second-chance points as well. It will be crucial for Mizzou to try to limit damage on the rebounding margin to keep themselves in the game. When Mizzou has fallen behind greatly on the boards, it’s shown in multiple facets of the game and a key problem in losses.

From three.

If you couldn’t tell from the first key, the margin for error for Mizzou is quite slim. Another way to keep them alive? Success from the perimeter. Last year, Caleb Grill had 22 points, eighteen of which were from beyond the arc. If Jacob Crews, Anthony Robinson II and others can step up in place of Grill, Florida will face a closer game than they think. When Mizzou struggles from further than field goal range, the offense has a tendency to become quite stagnant. The offense needs to be not only consistent, but also creative.

Don’t take your foot off the gas.

Along the lines of being effective from three, the Tigers also need to stay consistent offensively. A dry spell for Mizzou could lead to a lethal Florida run that can easily change momentum in favor of the visitors. Another issue for the Tigers this season has been the inability to excel for a full 40 minutes, and as SEC play starts, Mizzou will have a long road ahead if they don’t get that squared away. After the loss to Illinois, the Tigers will want to prove they are still an elite team and what better way to do that than to play a full, aggressive game against the Gators.

Game Prediction

Final Score: Florida 82 – Mizzou 68

While I think Mizzou has the talent to be competitive in this matchup, I don’t think it’s enough to lift them on top of the Florida Gators. Multiple areas need to be top notch for the Tigers to pull off a win and I’m not confident that Mizzou’s game is at that level quite yet. However, it will be necessary growth for this team as they progress into SEC play and continue to face elite competition within the conference.

Source link