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Seth Walder
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Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics
- Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
The Week 18 NFL schedule brings some exciting matchups to wrap up the 2025 regular season.
Carolina-Tampa Bay and Baltimore-Pittsburgh are winner-take-all games for the final spots in the playoffs (though Sunday’s Saints-Falcons game could impact that NFC South race). The Broncos, Jaguars and Patriots are all playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Seahawks and 49ers will duel for the No. 1 seed.
We have you covered with everything you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and ESPN Research provides a key stat to know as well as a betting nugget for each contest. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Walder — give us final-score picks for every game.
Let’s get into the full Week 18 slate, which culminates with the “Sunday Night Football” matchup between the Ravens and Steelers. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
CAR-TB | SEA-SF | IND-HOU
GB-MIN | CLE-CIN | DAL-NYG
TEN-JAX | NO-ATL | LAC-DEN
ARI-LAR | DET-CHI | WSH-PHI
MIA-NE | KC-LV | NYJ-BUF
BAL-PIT
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | TB -3 (43.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Panthers: “We’ve actually got one game left, and it’s for everything,” DB Nick Scott said as the Panthers prepared for the regular-season finale. It’s the attitude they plan to keep in the playoffs. It’s a cliché “Let’s go 1-0 each week” mentality that has allowed Carolina to bounce back from bad performances and losses to win the next week, as the Panthers have done consistently since mid-October. — David Newton
What we’re hearing on the Buccaneers: It’s amazing to think that the Bucs still have a shot at the playoffs after losing seven of their past eight games. But it’s a possibility if they can win for the first time since Nov. 30. “[You] have to have a short memory, and I do. I know what the priority is, and that’s winning [on] Saturday,” QB Baker Mayfield said. “To be able to completely forget what’s going on? No, being the competitor I am, [I am] frustrated with where we’re at. I am able to compartmentalize and be able to focus on Saturday.” — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Buccaneers’ defense has allowed a score on 21 of 22 opponent red zone drives over the past eight games (16 touchdowns, five field goals). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Panthers QB Bryce Young will throw an interception against the blitz. The Bucs blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the league (33%), and the Panthers have the fourth-worst EPA per play when facing the blitz (minus-0.14). — Walder
What’s at stake: The Panthers can clinch the NFC South and a playoff berth with a win/tie or a Falcons win. The Bucs can clinch with a win and Falcons loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Panthers | Buccaneers
Betting nugget: The Panthers are 7-0 against the spread after a loss this season. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their past six after a loss (2-6 ATS overall after loss). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 13
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 21
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 22, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: TB, 61.7% (by an average of 4.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jansen, Moton only vets who experienced Panthers in playoffs … Buccaneers CB Dean, LB Nelson out
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | SEA -1.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Seahawks: The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Seahawks. “It’s in our hands and all we have to do is grasp it,” OLB DeMarcus Lawrence said. But grabbing the NFC’s No. 1 seed would be harder if Seattle is down to its No. 3 LT in Amari Kight, an undrafted rookie. Starter Charles Cross (hamstring) has missed the past two games and was listed as a nonparticipant Tuesday. His backup, Josh Jones (ankle/knee), is hurt as well and didn’t practice Tuesday. — Brady Henderson
What we’re hearing on the 49ers: The last time these teams met with this much on the line, the 49ers won a classic when LB Dre Greenlaw stopped Seahawks TE Jacob Hollister a yard short of the winning touchdown in 2019. That San Francisco team appeared in Super Bowl LIV. There aren’t many coaches or players on either side still in the league, so coach Kyle Shanahan hasn’t tapped into it much this week, but it’s expected to be the kind of hard-hitting matchup that has defined this rivalry. And though home-field advantage is important for the victor, the real prize is what amounts to a free playoff win. “Football, out of all sports, home-field advantage is the biggest advantage because I think crowd noise truly affects the game in terms of pass rush and things like that,” Shanahan said. “But, the main thing is just it’s one less game. … That’s our goal.” — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The Seahawks’ defense ranks top 10 in the NFL in sacks (44, ranked eighth) and pressure percentage (35%, fifth) this season. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense ranks last in sacks (18) and pressure rate (25%). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey will record at least eight receptions. Running backs get 22% of targets against the Seahawks’ defense — the highest rate in the NFL. And because Seattle has such a good run defense, the 49ers will have to get McCaffrey the ball through the air. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Seahawks can clinch the NFC West, No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with a win or tie. The 49ers can clinch with a win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:00
Ryan Clark: Sam Darnold has an opportunity to reshape his entire perception
Ryan Clark breaks down the Seahawks’ win over the Rams, saying Sam Darnold can entirely reshape how he’s perceived with a playoff run.
Betting nugget: The 49ers are 7-1 outright and 6-2 ATS when QB Brock Purdy starts this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: 49ers 35, Seahawks 31
Moody’s pick: 49ers 23, Seahawks 17
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 27, 49ers 24
FPI prediction: SEA, 50.5% (by an average of 0.1 points)
Matchup must-read: Niners’ Kittle expects to face Seahawks; McCaffrey practices
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS | HOU -10.5 (38.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Colts: Indianapolis will start rookie QB Riley Leonard against an aggressive Houston defense. Leonard takes over for Philip Rivers, whose short-lived return from retirement did not produce a playoff berth for Indianapolis. The Colts made the prudent decision to go with Leonard this week, but the challenge is significant. “We’ve just got to be efficient,” coach Shane Steichen said. “Running the football, getting the ball out of our hands quick. Like I said, they’re really good on defense.” — Stephen Holder
What we’re hearing on the Texans: Coach DeMeco Ryans said Monday that the Texans are playing their “guys” because they “still have an opportunity to win our division.” Houston has a chance to win the AFC South title for the third consecutive season. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: Texans’ Danielle Hunter has four games with multiple sacks this season. He is tied for second most in the NFL with Myles Garrett, trailing only Brian Burns (five). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Colts WR Josh Downs will have his highest receiving yards game of the season (meaning at least 66 receiving yards). Though it will be Leonard starting at QB, Downs has demonstrated that he can get into space. He has a 67 open score in ESPN’s receiver scores, which ranks well above average. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Texans can clinch the AFC South with a win and a Jaguars loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Betting nugget: The Texans are 11-5 to the under this season, tied for the second-best record in the NFL. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Texans 30, Colts 24
Moody’s pick: Texans 26, Colts 13
Walder’s pick: Texans 34, Colts 17
FPI prediction: HOU, 69.1% (by an average of 7.2 points)
Matchup must-read: What the Colts’ historic collapse could mean for their future
1 p.m. ET | CBS | MIN -7.5 (35.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Packers: This isn’t a preseason game — even though the matchup has no playoff implications — so coach Matt LaFleur doesn’t have the luxury of holding out all of his starters. But some won’t play to get them (or keep them) healthy for the playoffs. “There’s going to be some starters that aren’t going to play,” LaFleur said. “Shoot, they may not suit up, they might suit up. And then, you’re going to have some starters that are going to play. So basically, you guys will find out on Sunday who’s playing.” — Rob Demovsky
What we’re hearing on the Vikings: In a game with no playoff implications, the most dramatic development will be whether WR Justin Jefferson gets the 53 yards he needs to hit 1,000 receiving yards this season. Reaching the milestone is important to him. He has done it in each of his previous five seasons, including in 2023, when he missed seven games because of a hamstring injury. He hasn’t missed a game this season and has played 95% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps. Players and coaches want him to get it, too. But the team’s offensive struggles this season have left him with fewer than 50 receiving yards in seven of his past nine games. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Packers have 13 takeaways this season, tied for the sixth fewest in the NFL after having 31 takeaways last season (fourth most). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Jefferson will close out the regular season with a 100-yard receiving game. But it will fuel debate over whether it’s really a sign of a connection between J.J. McCarthy and Jefferson going forward, considering the Packers were already locked into the No. 7 seed entering Week 18. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Packers have clinched the No. 7 seed, and the Vikings — who are eliminated — are projected to pick No. 15 at the draft, per ESPN’s FPI. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:03
Jason McCourty: Packers must score fast to make a playoff run
Jason McCourty and Peter Schrager explain what the Packers must do to have a chance of making a run in the playoffs.
Betting nugget: The Packers are 0-5 ATS after a loss this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Vikings 20, Packers 13
Moody’s pick: Vikings 26, Packers 23
Walder’s pick: Vikings 20, Packers 9
FPI prediction: GB, 75.2% (by an average of 10.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Love clears protocol, but Packers to sit QB until playoffs … Packers claim ex-Cowboys CB Diggs off waivers
1 p.m. ET | CBS | CIN -7.5 (44.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Browns: With 22 sacks this season, Myles Garrett has one more chance to record a sack and break the NFL’s single-season record. He’ll get the opportunity to do it against a QB who has become well-acquainted with him over the years. Garrett has sacked Joe Burrow 12 times in his career, tied with the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson for the most of any QB in Garrett’s career. — Daniel Oyefusi
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: TE Harold Fannin Jr. has had a great season. The rookie has been a productive part of Cleveland’s offense. But after slowing down the Cardinals’ Trey McBride a week ago, Cincinnati looks to continue the new trend against Fannin. Said Bengals defensive coordinator Al Golden: “[Fannin] matches what they do really well.” — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Bengals have allowed 29.5 points per game this season, second worst in the NFL ahead of only the Cowboys (29.8). Cincinnati is on pace to have the team’s most PPG allowed in a season in franchise history. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Browns will hold Bengals RB Chase Brown to under 4.0 yards per carry. The Bengals run duo 33% of the time, the second-highest rate in the league, but Cleveland is particularly adept at stopping duo runs, allowing a league-best 3.4 yards per carry when facing them. — Walder
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their past six games (4-1 ATS since Burrow returned). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bengals 24, Browns 20
Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Browns 16
Walder’s pick: Bengals 20, Browns 17
FPI prediction: CIN, 79.8% (by an average of 12.6 points)
Matchup must-read: Burrow on Bengals’ drought: ‘Something’s got to change’
1 p.m. ET | Fox | DAL -3.5 (51.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: Dallas wants to close the season with a win for a number of reasons: avoid its first consecutive losing seasons since 2000 to 2002, and finish 5-1 in the NFC East to build momentum into 2026. But does that work? Four times in team history, the Cowboys have ended a non-playoff season with a victory, and only once did they make the playoffs the following season. In 1963, they finished 7-7 and then went 10-3-1 in 1964, making it to the NFL championship. In 1965, 1987 and 2019, they won their season finales and failed to make the playoffs the next season. — Todd Archer
What we’re hearing on the Giants: The Giants plan to approach this matchup as if it’s a normal game. That means all the starters play, with no regard for draft positioning. The Giants are projected to have the No. 3 pick, per ESPN’s FPI. “Going straight through. Straight through all 60 minutes or whatever it takes,” interim coach Mike Kafka said. The Cowboys also plan to play QB Dak Prescott, who hasn’t lost to the Giants since his rookie season. New York has dropped nine straight in the rivalry. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Prescott leads the NFL with 4,482 passing yards this season. He is seeking to be the first Cowboys QB to lead the NFL in passing yardage. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Giants QB Jaxson Dart will throw for more passing yards than any other game this season (so, 284-plus) in a Giants victory that will infuriate the (rational) portion of the team’s fan base that hopes the Giants lose to maximize their draft pick. — Walder
1:19
Why McElroy thinks Giants should consider drafting a QB
Greg McElroy says the Giants should consider moving on from Jaxson Dart and drafting a QB.
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 12-5 ATS against the Giants since 2017. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 21
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 35, Giants 17
Walder’s pick: Giants 28, Cowboys 23
FPI prediction: NYG, 51.7% (by an average of 0.3 points)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | JAX -12.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Titans: Titans interim coach Mike McCoy described the rivalry with the Jaguars as a “professional hatred.” Having previously served as the QBs coach in Jacksonville, McCoy said, “I know a lot of those guys over there on that team, and I understand when they play the Tennessee Titans, what this game means to them. You watch the game the last time, the saltiness of the game.” The Titans would like nothing more than to beat the Jaguars to deny them the AFC South title and knock them down a spot or two in the playoffs. — Turron Davenport
What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: The Jaguars are trying to beat the Titans for the fourth consecutive time, which would be their longest winning streak in the series. Doing so would give them the AFC South title for the second time in four years. It also would be the Jaguars’ eighth consecutive victory since they blew a 19-point fourth-quarter lead against Houston. “We’ve come a long way, and we’re just going to keep building on that,” WR Parker Washington said. — Michael DiRocco
Stat to know: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has accounted for 35 touchdowns this season (26 passing, 9 rushing). That’s the second most in a season in team history (2015 Blake Bortles had 37). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Titans DT Jeffery Simmons will record a sack, closing a campaign that should earn him first-team All-Pro honors. Simmons ranks second in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (16.3%) this season. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Jaguars can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with a win, along with losses by Denver and New England. They can win the AFC South with a win/tie or a Texans loss/tie. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Betting nugget: The Jaguars have covered seven straight games, the longest streak in the NFL this season and tied for the longest streak in Jacksonville’s history (2007). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Jaguars 34, Titans 17
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 33, Titans 23
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 27, Titans 23
FPI prediction: JAX, 77.5% (by an average of 11.3 points)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ATL -3.5 (43.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Saints: The futures of several Saints will be up in the air Sunday — 36-year-old Demario Davis, 36-year-old Cameron Jordan and 35-year-old Taysom Hill all have voiding contracts in the offseason. That means there are no guarantees the longtime veterans will be back in New Orleans next season, giving a final game against the Saints’ biggest rival special meaning this weekend. Jordan had fun with the rivalry when asked recently: “Trashlanta, Cant-lanta, Aint-tlanta. It’s all about the same. 28-3,” Jordan said. — Katherine Terrell
What we’re hearing on the Falcons: Coach Raheem Morris said it’s “really upsetting” that his team and the Saints have been the hottest teams in the NFC South despite both being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs several weeks ago. It’s not because Morris doesn’t want his team to finish strong — “You can’t ever get tired of winning,” he said — he was just hoping the success would have happened sooner. Atlanta figures to unleash RB Bijan Robinson, who needs 255 scrimmage yards to set the single-season record. — Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: Saints QB Tyler Shough has three straight games with at least 250 passing yards and zero interceptions, tied with the Texans’ C.J. Stroud and Chargers’ Justin Herbert for the longest streak by a rookie QB in NFL history. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Falcons WR Drake London will catch a touchdown from the slot. Saints nickel corner Alontae Taylor has been targeted more times this season (84) than any other slot corner. — Walder
Betting nugget: The Saints have covered five straight games, their longest cover streak since 2020 (five). They have also covered four straight road games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Falcons 17, Saints 13
Moody’s pick: Saints 21, Falcons 20
Walder’s pick: Falcons 27, Saints 24
FPI prediction: ATL, 54.6% (by an average of 1.6 points)
Matchup must-read: Source: Saints’ Olave out for finale due to blood clot
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | DEN -12.5 (37.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chargers: L.A. has a chance to go undefeated in the AFC West for the first time in franchise history with a win, a feat coach Jim Harbaugh will leave up to his backups. QB Justin Herbert and other yet-to-be-named starters won’t play. The Chargers have their playoff spot secured, and a win would be only for seeding positioning, which Harbaugh doesn’t care much about. “One game doesn’t define us, but soon it will,” Harbaugh said. — Kris Rhim
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: Denver wants, and needs, recent history to repeat itself. Coach Sean Payton said he has conveyed to his team the importance of the No. 1 seed — so much so that he didn’t discuss clinching the AFC West title last week. So, the Broncos need the pedal-to-the-metal effort they got in last season’s finale, when they routed the Chiefs’ backups 38-0 to earn a wild-card spot. And Payton wants that bye: “The first reason would be, you skip a game in which you’re at risk to not play well or an opponent all of a sudden has a great game. You skip the threat of potentially losing a game, if that makes any sense, you skip right to the next round.” — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks while also having the fewest sacks allowed (19). Their plus-45 differential in sacks and sacks allowed is currently the largest in a season since team sacks were first recorded in 1963. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Broncos edge Nik Bonitto will record multiple sacks. Going against QB Trey Lance with the Chargers, Denver is heavily favored. That should work into Bonitto’s hands, as the team forces Los Angeles into passing situations. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with a win or losses by the Patriots and Jaguars. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Betting nugget: The Chargers are 4-0 outright and ATS as underdogs this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Broncos 30, Chargers 24
Moody’s pick: Broncos 21, Chargers 20
Walder’s pick: Broncos 26, Chargers 16
FPI prediction: DEN, 68.6% (by an average of 7.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: How the Chargers’ offensive line turned into a woe … DT Allen’s interior push integral to Broncos’ pass rush
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | LAR -7.5 (46.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Cardinals: With their offseason days away, the Cardinals haven’t started thinking about their vacation plans yet, QB Jacoby Brissett said. It helps that Arizona is playing a division rival, and it’s motivated to notch its first NFC West win of the season. “They’ll maximize their last opportunity here,” coach Jonathan Gannon said. — Josh Weinfuss
What we’re hearing on the Rams: L.A. might be locked into the No. 6 seed before it kicks off Sunday against the Cardinals, but coach Sean McVay said his starters will play in Week 18. It’s a departure from his philosophy for the past two seasons, but after back-to-back losses, McVay said his starters need to be out there. “We need to play,” McVay said. “We need to play better football. So, I don’t know what the consequences are in those different types of things, but we got to play better.” — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Rams WR Puka Nacua has four games this season with at least 150 receiving yards, one shy of tying the most in a season in NFL history, done by Roy Green (1984), Jerry Rice (1995), Tim Brown (1997), Antonio Brown (2017) and Tyreek Hill (2023). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Rams DT Kobie Turner will record a sack. Turner has a 13% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, fifth best in the NFL at the position. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win and a Seahawks win. The Rams would clinch the No. 6 seed with a loss or a 49ers win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:38
Can the Rams win three road playoff games?
Dan Graziano and David Dennis Jr. discuss whether the Rams can win three road playoff games.
Betting nugget: The Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games (0-4 ATS in their past four). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Rams 33, Cardinals 15
Moody’s pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 19
Walder’s pick: Rams 34, Cardinals 13
FPI prediction: LAR, 78.4% (by an average of 11.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stafford ‘not worried’ about MVP talk entering Week 18 … Injury-plagued sophomore season over for Cards’ Harrison
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | CHI -3 (50.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Lions: Detroit cruised past the Bears 52-21 in their Week 2 meeting. But things have drastically changed, with the Lions eliminated from playoff contention and the Bears having won two of their past three games while sitting atop the NFC North. Coach Dan Campbell said the team’s mindset entering the finale is to finish on a high note. “They’re more polished. They’re a better team,” Campbell said of the Bears since facing them earlier this season. “Really since that team, they lead the league in takeaways on defense. I mean, they’re getting them. It’s like we talk about, it’s contagious for them.” — Eric Woodyard
What we’re hearing on the Bears: Caleb Williams is 270 yards from being the first QB in the Bears’ 105 seasons to throw for at least 4,000 yards. Reaching that figure was one of Williams’ preseason goals and seems attainable, considering he’s coming off a season-high 330 yards against San Francisco. “I think for me, it’d be cool just in the sense of, there’s never been one here,” Williams said. “I think I was brought here for those types of things and those types of moments, the things that haven’t been done here, to try and be able to accomplish.” — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears have scored 425 points this season. Chicago is 32 points shy of breaking the franchise single-season record set in 1985. (The 2025 team will play 17 games to 1985 team’s 16). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Lions will score at least 30 points. Even though it’s a meaningless game for Detroit, it’s safe to assume Campbell still will want to score plenty on his division rivals. And incredibly, on plays when there are no turnovers, the Bears rank 30th in EPA allowed per play on defense. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Bears can clinch the No. 2 seed with a win or an Eagles loss. Chicago would clinch the No. 3 seed with a loss and an Eagles win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
0:57
Orlovsky: The Bears have a championship-caliber offense
Dan Orlovsky has high praise for the Bears’ offense, but is also concerned about their defense heading into the playoffs.
Betting nugget: The Lions are 0-4 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bears 34, Lions 24
Moody’s pick: Bears 27, Lions 20
Walder’s pick: Lions 33, Bears 28
FPI prediction: DET, 54.1% (by an average of 1.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Out of playoffs, Lions playing for ‘respect’ in season finale … Williams gets shot to be Bears’ first 4,000-yard passer
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | PHI -4.5 (38.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Commanders: With LT Laremy Tunsil unlikely to play because of an oblique injury, Washington would be without 11 players who were projected starters this season. But even in a lost season, the Commanders have a few things at stake: LB Bobby Wagner needs five tackles to become the third player to reach 2,000 for his career; DE Von Miller needs another sack to give him nine and another $500,000. The Commanders can’t finish lower than seventh in the draft, but a loss Sunday could improve their pick. — John Keim
What we’re hearing on the Eagles: Philadelphia is planning to sit QB Jalen Hurts and other starters as the Eagles gear up for the playoffs. Coach Nick Sirianni is prioritizing giving some of his key players rest after another marathon season. “For the guys who are actually down this week, it’s a mental break. They need the mental break,” tackle Jordan Mailata said. “And that physical break is a huge aspect; now they can just focus on getting right for playoffs. For us, it’s the biggest advantage possible. It’s like another bye week.” — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt has scored a rushing touchdown in each of the past three games. He could join Antonio Gibson, Alfred Morris and Skip Hicks as the only Washington rookies with a rushing score in four or more consecutive games. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin will not catch a pass against Quinyon Mitchell. Mitchell has been exceptional this season, allowing just 0.7 yards per coverage snap, seventh best among outside corners with at least 300 coverage snaps. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles can clinch the No. 2 seed with a win and a Bears loss. The Eagles would clinch the No. 3 seed with a loss or Bears win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Commanders | Eagles
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 3-0 ATS in their past three games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 16
Moody’s pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 13
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Commanders 12
FPI prediction: PHI, 73% (by an average of 9.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Source: Eagles likely to rest Hurts, others in finale
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | NE -10.5 (45.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Dolphins: QB Quinn Ewers gets his third career start, this time against a Patriots team still in the hunt for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The rookie faces a tough test against a New England defense that owns the league’s second-highest EPA on blitzes. One of Ewers’ strongest traits, according to teammates, is his calmness in the pocket — and they feel he’ll be ready for what New England throws at him. “I always said that about Quinn, you could tell his swag in the pocket,” RB De’Von Achane said. “He isn’t anxious, ready to move. He can stay in the pocket, take a hit, and that’s something you like about it. He also is great with throwing when he’s got a defender in his face.” — Marcel Louis-Jacques
What we’re hearing on the Patriots: In an ideal scenario, coach Mike Vrabel would like to have DT Milton Williams (ankle, missed the past five games) and LT Will Campbell (knee, missed the past four games) knock off some rust with game action before the playoffs. The Patriots still have a chance to earn the No. 1 seed, so they are expected to play their healthy starters and go for it. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson needs 142 rushing yards to become first rookie in New England with 1,000 rushing yards in a season since Robert Edwards (1,115 yards in 1998). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Dolphins LB Jordyn Brooks will record 12 or more tackles or assists. If the Patriots get out to a big lead, I expect they’ll run the ball plenty, and Brooks — who has the fifth-highest tackle rate on run plays among linebackers with at least 300 snaps — will be there to record tackles. And even if the Patriots fall behind, they might do the same thing to preserve health for the playoffs. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Patriots can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with a win and a Broncos loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
0:53
How should you approach the Patriots’ RB options in fantasy?
Daniel Dopp explains why both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson will be productive in fantasy moving forward.
Betting nugget: Four straight Patriots games have gone over the total (overs are 8-2 in their past 10 games). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 34, Dolphins 13
Moody’s pick: Patriots 31, Dolphins 14
Walder’s pick: Patriots 27, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: NE, 80.1% (by an average of 12.5 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | KC -5.5 (36.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: The biggest subplot for the Chiefs is the strong possibility that Sunday could be TE Travis Kelce‘s last game in his illustrious 13-year career. Kelce is expected to play his usual snaps, and the Chiefs will be eager to get him a touchdown against the rival Raiders. “Honestly, I’ve just been trying to win games,” Kelce said last week about his future. “I’ll let that be a decision I’ll make with my family, friends and the Chiefs organization when the time comes.” — Nate Taylor
What we’re hearing on the Raiders: With QB Geno Smith (ankle) doubtful to play in the season finale, Carroll plans to play Kenny Pickett and Aidan O’Connell. The Raiders might favor Pickett to start because he has been QB2 throughout the season. But both players are looking forward to the opportunity to get reps, especially O’Connell — who started the season on injured reserve because of a wrist injury. “I think it’s been hard to sit back and watch,” O’Connell said. “It weighs on everyone when they lose like this, and so just trying to stay patient and wait for my opportunity.” — Ryan McFadden
Stat to know: The Chiefs have gone four straight games with one or zero touchdowns, tied for their longest streak since seven straight in 2012 and the longest streak of any team this season. One more such game would tie the longest streak in the NFL over the past three seasons, joining the 2024 Dolphins, 2023 Jets and 2023 Panthers. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Chiefs will record a pick-six on a screen pass. The Raiders have run screens at the fourth-highest rate in the league this season, and the Chiefs have allowed just a 24% success rate to opponents on screens, second best among all defenses. — Walder
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS the past seven times they have been favored. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 21, Raiders 10
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 17
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 17
FPI prediction: KC, 60.3% (by an average of 4.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Reid says he plans to return as Chiefs coach next season
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | BUF -7 (37.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Jets: It’s all about draft position for New York, currently projected for the No. 2 spot, per ESPN’s FPI. The Jets could be as high as No. 2 or as low as No. 7, a wide variance that would have a huge impact on their pursuit of a QB. Rookie QB Brady Cook makes his fourth start. His 10.0 QBR ranks last among 52 players with 50-plus attempts this season. — Rich Cimini
What we’re hearing on the Bills: With the Bills locked into a wild-card spot, the odds are high that Sunday will mark the final game at the currently named Highmark Stadium, which opened in 1973. Injuries and rest will factor into the Bills’ decision regarding who will play as the franchise prepares to honor the stadium. “As it relates to the game and different things, there’s obviously a lot of different paths and approaches we could take,” coach Sean McDermott said. “But at the end of the day, the one I always come back to is what’s best for the team.” — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Bills QB Josh Allen has 14 rushing touchdowns this season. He is one away from tying the NFL single-season record for the most by a QB (Allen and Jalen Hurts both rushed for 15 touchdowns in 2023). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Cook will attempt fewer than 30 passes for the first time in a game this season. Even though Cook has reached that mark, the Jets have been the most run-heavy team in the league relative to expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats), and the Bills have the second-most run-inducing defense. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Bills can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win and losses by the Texans and Chargers — or a win, plus Chargers and Jaguars losses. Buffalo would clinch the No. 6 seed with a win, plus a Chargers win and a Texans loss — or a win, plus a Chargers loss and wins by the Texans and Jags. The Bills could also clinch the No. 6 seed with a win, plus Chargers and Texans wins, a Jags loss and then five wins from either Cowboys, Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, Eagles, Steelers, Seahawks or Bucs. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
2:36
Dennis: Josh Allen needs to prove himself this postseason
David Dennis Jr., Jason McCourty and Dan Graziano debate what Josh Allen’s legacy would be if the Bills fail to win the Super Bowl this season.
Betting nugget: The Bills are 1-5 ATS as home favorites this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bills 24, Jets 9
Moody’s pick: Bills 27, Jets 16
Walder’s pick: Bills 26, Jets 16
FPI prediction: BUF, 90% (by an average of 19.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bills’ Oliver injures meniscus during rehab, has procedure … Highmark Stadium’s single tunnel in Buffalo is one for ages
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | BAL -3.5 (40.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: Coach John Harbaugh said winning the turnover battle is the No. 1 priority. The Steelers have forced the third-most takeaways in the NFL with 26. Since Harbaugh became the Ravens’ coach in 2008, Baltimore is 4-11 (.267) when losing the turnover battle to Pittsburgh. “The team that wins the turnover battle is going to have a real edge in winning the game,” Harbaugh said. “So, we know that. That needs to be us.” — Jamison Hensley
What we’re hearing on the Steelers: Pittsburgh’s biggest offseason priority revolved around stopping the run after Ravens RB Derrick Henry rushed for 186 yards and two touchdowns in the Steelers’ wild-card loss. Though Pittsburgh won the first meeting a month ago, the Steelers were still outrushed by 183 yards. This time, though, rookie DT Derrick Harmon will play. The Steelers’ run defense has improved by 80 yards when Harmon plays, but he’s downplaying his impact. “I’m ready to play ball, dog,” he said. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Steelers have been outgained by 903 yards this season, the sixth-worst yards differential in the NFL. Since the 1970 merger, only four teams have made the playoffs despite being outgained by 800-plus yards during the regular season: the 1989 Steelers, 2010 Seahawks, 1983 Seahawks and 2017 Bills. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Ravens will win in a blowout. Without WR DK Metcalf (suspension), the Steelers’ offense is limited, and though the Ravens have not been themselves this season, Baltimore remains the more talented team. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Steelers can clinch the AFC North and a playoff berth with a win or tie. The Ravens can clinch with a win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Betting nugget: The Steelers are 7-2 outright and ATS against the Ravens since 2021. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Ravens 20, Steelers 17
Moody’s pick: Ravens 24, Steelers 14
Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 57.4% (by an average of 2.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Ravens-Steelers winner takes AFC North: ‘Going to be a slugfest’ … Ravens’ Jackson says he’s playing in must-win game … Steelers QB Rodgers, 42, to ponder future after season
