A look back at last year’s contribution on this very topic didn’t make for pretty reading.
Although I was wrong in terms of who I thought would hold onto their UFC belts over the course of 2025, I absolutely nailed who wouldn’t leave the year as champion.
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Apologies to Jon Jones and Juliana Peña.
In my defense, how was I to know that Ilia Topuria would exit featherweight in the second month of 2025? And again, who would have predicted Islam Makhachev’s lightweight exodus just a few months later? Of course, both men are still champions today, so was I really wrong? Like, really wrong? I could make an argument for myself, but that would be an obnoxious showing of my intelligence.
There is no doubt that I will win the ire of more of the UFC elite with my 2026 forecast — a cross I’m willing to bear in the name of Uncrowned’s intrepid journalism.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with The Danger Scale, let’s get you up to date.
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The 11 current UFC champions will fall under one of the following categories:
Immovable Objects: This champion is perceived to be untouchable.
Hints of Doubt: It would be a surprise if this champion lost his or her belt.
Hazardous Terrain: There’s a strong probability this champion is losing the title.
Clear and Present Danger: This champion is going to be dethroned.
Let the games begin.
Immovable Objects
Khamzat Chimaev (middleweight champion)
He may not have had the most spectacular inauguration with his one-sided, laborious domination of Dricus du Plessis, but Khamzat Chimaev is finally where we all knew he would end up one day: Atop the UFC mountain.
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A look through the current middleweight rankings only strengthens 12 belief that Chechnya’s terrifyingly explosive wrestler will not be forced from his throne over the next twelve months. Nassourdine Imavov is currently in pole position to get the next shot at the middleweight king but another contender could emerge from February’s clash between Anthony Hernandez and Sean Strickland.
Although there are some interesting style clashes within the title mix, it seems highly unlikely that any of the aforementioned players could dethrone “Borz.”
Valentina Shevchenko (women’s flyweight)
I’m done doubting Valentina Shevchenko. We all did it ahead of her meeting with Weili Zhang. Heck, some of us even did it before her defense against Manon Fiorot. On both occasions, the most dominant female champion in the history of the UFC made it look easy, and at the same time, made her critics look very stupid.
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Ben Fowlkes wrote a brilliant piece about how long she has been competing in high-level martial arts. It really brought it crashing home to me how lucky we are to have witnessed her reign. Although the brace of defeats she suffered to Amanda Nunes in 2016-17 eliminated her from the GOAT conversation for many people, she is certainly on the Mt. Rushmore of women’s mixed martial arts.
Shevchenko’s 2025 performance against Zhang highlighted how significant the gap is between the champion and everyone else. She’s effectively lapping the field now, even as she nears age 38, and I expect that to continue through 2026.
Islam Makhachev (welterweight)
Ah yes, there he is again in the “Immovable Objects” section, the pound-for-pound greatest fighter on the planet, Islam Makhachev.
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I know what some of you are thinking. “Petesy, you looked like a fool last year for this exact forecast, why would you possibly do it again?”
Here’s the thing.
Islam Makhachev believes he will be fighting Kamaru Usman. I’m as big a fan of “The Nigerian Nightmare” as the next guy, but with just one win in four years at welterweight, it doesn’t feel like the kind of challenge that will put Makhachev in immediate danger.
Although there are an abundance of new title contenders in the division like Michael Morales, Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates, none of them look like obvious candidates to hand the Dagestani champion his first loss since October 2015.
Is this Alexander Volkanovski’s final year as a UFC champion?
(Chris Unger via Getty Images)
Hints of Doubt
Alexander Volkanovski (featherweight)
Although the chances of Diego Lopes unseating the featherweight king at UFC 325 are slim given that Alexander Volkanovski beat him soundly just nine months ago, there are some intriguing challenges on the horizon for the reigning two-time champion.
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Whether Movsar Evloev or Lerone Murphy ever get title shots remains unclear, but they are two surging undefeated prospects who could push the 37-year-old champion back into the red. While Volkanovski would probably be the bookmaker’s favorite in the event of either fight happening, it doesn’t seem completely beyond belief that either could take the belt from him in his second reign as the division’s top dog.
Tom Aspinall (heavyweight)
Although my belief in Tom Aspinall remains unwavering, there has been clear evidence of the fan base’s emerging doubt ever since the eye-gouging debacle that marred his first undisputed title defense against Ciryl Gane in October.
As he revealed on his latest interview with Uncrowned’s Ariel Helwani, Aspinall is not entirely out of the woods in terms of his eyes. With no return date in sight (no pun intended), new contenders like Waldo Cortes-Acosta have emerged, someone who would have been previously scoffed at as a challenge to the Wigan heavyweight.
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To add to that, Gane surprised a lot of people with the effort he put forward against Aspinall before the fight’s untimely ending. Some are giving Gane the edge in a rematch, which will lead to way more interest in their clash should they run it back in 2026.
Kayla Harrison (women’s bantamweight)
Most people can’t take three years off, return to the highest level of the sport and be successful, but Amanda Nunes’ GOAT status means we cannot fully commit Kayla Harrison to the “Immovable Objects” category in good faith.
When George St-Pierre returned to the UFC in 2017 after a four-year hiatus, many believed he saw a winnable fight in front of him in the shape of Michael Bisping. Comparatively, Nunes is returning to face someone in Harrison who looks like they can have a dominant reign akin to that of Nunes’ own legendary run.
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Who are we to doubt that Nunes could claim another highly-touted scalp with her brutal stopping power? She’s done it plenty of times and Ronda Rousey can speak to her ability to make once exceptional talents look mediocre.
My money is with the hot hand, as I truly believe Harrison’s takedowns will nullify “The Lioness” and prove that three years is just too long a time to stay away from the game.
Can Petr Yan do it all over again in 2026?
(Ian Maule via Getty Images)
Hazardous Terrain
Alex Pereira (light heavyweight)
Alex Pereira is the best light heavyweight in the world, but it seems as though he has no interest in sticking around to prove that point any longer. “Poatan” is one of the UFC’s modern superstars and I don’t think anyone would begrudge him an opportunity to move up to challenge for a championship in a third weight class.
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It remains unclear whether his move to a new weight division hinged on fighting at the White House against Jon Jones. In December, he claimed the bout was a no-go, so there is a chance that changes the course of his 2026 and his aspirations at heavyweight.
Petr Yan (bantamweight)
Petr Yan’s dominant win over Merab Dvalishvili was the performance of 2025, but despite that, he is in a precarious position as two men who have previously defeated him may be next in line for a crack at his title.
If Sean O’Malley gets a win over Son Yadong early next year, fans will finally get an opportunity to see a rematch between “Suga” and “No Mercy.” The result of their three-round meeting in October 2022 is debated to this day, as O’Malley left the event with a split decision nod that paved his way to the title. In a true meritocracy, Dvalishvili would be guaranteed an immediate rematch, but it’s likely that O’Malley’s star power will win out if he can regain winning momentum.
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Should the second leg of Yan and O’Malley come to be, something tells me the longer five-round bout would suit the Russian.
Ilia Topuria (lightweight)
Ever since he revealed he would not be defending his title until further notice due to alarming personal problems, doubts have surfaced regarding a timely return for Ilia Topuria. It’s a pity for UFC fans to see one of the most exciting stars in the sport sidelined, but his recent post highlighted the severity of the situation.
The reason why “El Matador” appears in this section is primarily due to concerns that personal issues will lead to him vacating his title. He cited a judicial process that needed to play out when he announced his hiatus from the sport, which could prove to be a very lengthy process.
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As well as that, many fans and media see the grappling ability of Arman Tsarukyan as a very serious threat to the champion’s crown should he return before a decision is forced on the title.
“Sorry, Mackenzie. Celebrate now while you can.” — Petesy, probably.
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
Clear and Present Danger
Joshua Van (flyweight)
Arguably the breakout star of 2025, it feels like a slight to have the monumentally talented Joshua Van this far down the list. But here’s the thing — he became the champion without beating Alexandre Pantoja in a fight.
As soon as the Brazilian is ready to return from his gnarly elbow (and/or shoulder) injury, he should be given an immediate rematch. Pantoja is considered one of the best fighters in the world and the disparity in experience between him and the Myanmar talent is drastic. As well as that, setting aside Pantoja due to the freak nature of the result, the only fighter in the flyweight top-10 Van has defeated is Brandon Royval. Despite his stunning striking style and amazing ascent in the sport, it’s easy to still feel uncertain about the longevity of his first reign as flyweight champion.
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Mackenzie Dern (women’s strawweight)
The only person who was more disappointed than Zhang Weili on the night she lost to Valentina Shevchenko was Mackenzie Dern.
Why, you ask?
Well, because the queen of modern day mixed martial arts, Shevchenko, dominated the former strawweight champion, Zhang, to the point that the natural thing for Zhang to do is to move back to her former 115-pound stomping grounds, which are currently being overseen by Dern.
Again, Dern had a great year in 2025. However, she didn’t have to look down the barrel of “Magnum” to gain her gold. I expect Zhang to move back down with a point to prove, which won’t bode well for the jiu-jitsu phenom.
