Conference play leaves little time to dwell on the past as the Virginia Cavaliers (11-2, 0-1) look to flush away what was a thrilling, and all-around disgusting triple-overtime loss in Blacksburg. The ’Hoos travel south to Raleigh on Saturday to take on an NC State (10-4, 1-0) team that’s riding high on a three-game winning streak, most recently beating Wake Forest 70-57 on New Year’s Eve.
Tipoff is set for 11 AM from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh. ESPN2 will have the broadcast.
Advertisement
The Wolfpack is led by star forward Darrion Williams, who entered the 2025-26 season as the ACC preseason Player of the Year after being one of the most highly-touted guys throughout portal season. Williams has been up and down as of late, averaging 14.2 points per game on the year, but has scored double-digit points just once in the past five games and has combined for only nine in the past two games against Wake and Ole Miss. Will Wade was recently asked whether or not he was concerned about Williams’ lack of scoring, to which he delivered one of the better rants you’ll find anywhere:
The Wolfpack owns one of the highest scoring offenses in the ACC, averaging 87 points per game, the same as the
’Hoos. Defensively, things haven’t been as solid, but still serviceable, with Wade’s bunch surrendering 71 points per night, though they held their last two opponents well below that average.
This should be a fun one. Here are two keys and a prediction as the ’Hoos eye what could shape up as a huge road win come March.
Advertisement
Two Keys
Defend the 3-point line
Duh, of course. The Wolfpack shoots the three especially well, though. Through 14 games, Wade’s team ranks first in the ACC in three-point percentage (39%) with five players averaging 40 percent or better from deep. Paul McNeil has been especially solid, nailing eight of his last 17 attempts. He even drilled 11 threes in a game versus Texas Southern in December en route to a 47-point night. Quadir Copeland is another capable shooter for the ’Pack, though his attempts remain low with only 24; he’s remained efficient, making 13 of them — enough to earn the respect of defenses.
The ’Hoos defended the three well enough to win against the Hokies, holding Tech to 9-of-28 from long range in 55 minutes of game time, but were ultimately unable to muster enough points of their own. Saturday should be a great barometer to tell us just how well the ’Hoos can defend from deep going forward against more talented squads in league play.
Advertisement
Limit second chances
The ’Hoos have been one of the better rebounding teams in the country so far, though that was hard to believe while watching the Tech game.
Tech helped itself to 22 second-chance points on 20 offensive rebounds and won the battle on the boards by six in total. Limiting a similar performance for the ’Hoos starts with being the aggressor in the paint and the guards not getting beat off the bounce and needing help from the shot-blockers around the hoop, hindering their ability to block out opposing bigs right around the rim.
NC State’s top two rebounders, Ven-Allen Lubin and Williams, stand at 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-6, respectively, so the ’Hoos will have the clear height advantage in the frontcourt with seven-footers Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso occupying the paint. State’s overall rebounding ranks in the bottom half of the ACC, while UVA sits dead last in offensive rebounds allowed. With a substantial height advantage, the ’Hoos need to capitalize and limit the Wolfpack to ‘one and done’ possessions.
Advertisement
The Hokies feasted on the boards by simply having more numbers right around the bucket at times and against a team like NC State that loves to hunt threes, another bad offensive rebounding performance could be especially costly.
Prediction
UVA and NC State are mirror images of each other in offensive stats, both in the top five in the ACC in points per game, three-point shooting, and overall shooting efficiency. I doubt we see 40 minutes like whatever it was that unfolded in Blacksburg. There will be plenty of points in this game and more than enough three pointers, that’s for sure. With two teams so evenly matched from those perspectives, it’ll be the small plays that prove big in the end. I think UVA’s offensive rebounding steals just enough extra possessions to pull the win. Give me the ’Hoos in another barn burner, by a bucket.
Prediction: ’Hoos 79, Wolfpack 77
