Team that will be most missed in the playoffs
Melissa is right about the Lions (see below), but how about the Dallas Cowboys? Their defense was nauseating, and nobody wants a playoff weekend spoiled watching that. But their offense was electric. They finished fifth in the league in EPA/play in the regular season. And with Dak Prescott, a solid o-line and George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, they had the potential to drop 30 points on any playoff group. If they’d snuck in and managed to knock off a top seed, it would have convinced Jerry Jones that he was on the right path. And nothing is funnier than Jones failing to recognize that the reason why Dallas is stuck is the reflection in his mirror. Oliver Connolly
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Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has defined the NFL’s January rhythm for nearly a decade. With his ACL tear punctuating the Chiefs’ annus horribilis, the playoffs lost their most creative force and familiar reference point, leaving this year’s tournament the most wide-open in recent memory. Bryan Armen Graham
Related: Kicking zones and a ban on losing teams: NFL playoff tweaks we’d like to see
Detroit Lions. No defender in the postseason disrupts a game like Aidan Hutchinson, who had a career season. While the Lions regressed in some areas this season, they have a collection of dynamic playmakers. Their four losses to playoff teams since November were each by less than one score, highlighting Detroit’s competitiveness. Melissa Jacobs
Joe Burrow, a quarterback with finesse and two dynamite receivers – Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – is someone you wish was locking horns with this season’s best. That trio is what the playoffs need, shame about the rest of the Cincinnati Bengals. Graham Searles
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High-seeded team at risk of going out early
The gap between the No 2 seed and No 7 seed in the NFC is slim. And the Chicago Bears are reliant on turnovers to get off the field on defense. Their four-man pass-rush group, the key to postseason success, ranks 31st in the league in pressure rate and has the slowest average time to pressure. With Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson, they’re a fun, explosive team – and a joy to watch. But relying on turnovers to survive is rarely sustainable. OC
New England Patriots. Drake Maye has played at an MVP level, but a 14-3 record built on a soft schedule can flatter to deceive. In the playoffs, protection issues and a lack of battle-tested weapons could surface quickly against a physical, well-coached opponent with a disruptive pass rush. BAG
The Chicago Bears have had a rebirth in Johnson’s first year in charge. He has transformed Williams, given the offense a shrewd playbook, and is living his best life in the process. It’s comparable to Jim Harbaugh’s first year in San Francisco, with one major exception. Have you seen Chicago’s defense? 24.4 points allowed per game is the most by any team in the postseason. MJ
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Denver Broncos. Sean Payton is happy to have his offense avoid turning the ball over while scoring just enough to let his monstrous defense carry the day. That’s a great plan against weaker opponents (only New England had a softer strength of schedule this season). But when the Broncos faced a Super Bowl contender in the Jaguars last month they came up short. If the Broncos face the Texans, who are armed with a defense better than either Denver’s or Jacksonville’s quality unit, in the divisional round they will test whether the Jags flub was the Broncos’ real level or an aberration. GS
Long shot to win
What counts as a long shot this season? No team feels complete. Even the No 1 seeds have pretty pronounced flaws. But let’s go with the Houston Texans. They have a dominant four-man pass-rush, the hallmark of Super Bowl champions. There is a world in which the offense is good enough to keep games close, with CJ Stroud taking over in key spots and putting together a legacy stretch. OC
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Los Angeles Chargers. They may have slipped in as the No 7 seed, but a Jim Harbaugh team with an elite quarterback is never a comfortable draw. The Chargers’ combination of coaching experience and high-end quarterback play gives them real spoiler potential in an AFC bracket ripe for disruption. BAG
It’s weird to consider the Buffalo Bills a long shot, but they’re the No 6 seed and nothing about this season has been expected. The path to the Super Bowl will be harder than ever, starting with the fact that Buffalo haven’t won a road playoff game since the 1992 season. This weekend the Bills travel to Jacksonville – the NFL’s hottest team – with virtually no receivers of note, an inept run defense, and major issues with their kicking game. But they have Josh Allen and a boatload of playoff experience. Other AFC teams look better on paper, but the postseason is a whole different ballgame. MJ
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a rough watch at times this season, so they could easily flame out. But the returning DK Metcalf could dominate if Aaron Rodgers can lock in at his belligerent best. The Steelers have a more clear X-factor in the experience of head coach Mike Tomlin though. He can galvanise a defense that at times has been very good. GS
Most important player this postseason
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills. The AFC is wide open. But the Bills are rolling with the best, most proven player in the field (with apologies to Maye, who should be this year’s MVP). The Bills are flawed; they have been awful in the first half of games and played at a championship-level in the second half; their run defense is a sieve; and they’ve never won a road playoff game (0-5) with Sean McDermott as head coach. But if they’re going to win multiple rounds, it will be Allen reminding us he’s the best all-around player in the league. OC
Lane Johnson, RT, Philadelphia Eagles. The first-ballot Hall of Famer has been Philly’s best player for more than a decade; the Eagles are 110-57-1 (.658) when he plays and 18-27 (.400) when he doesn’t. Expected to return from a Lisfranc sprain that has sidelined him since November, his presence (if truly fit) stabilizes everything from Jalen Hurts’ protection to what’s been a inconsistent run game, making him the clearest swing factor in the Eagles’ repeat bid. BAG
Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks. Will the postseason pumpkin return for Darnold? It was just about this time last year when Darnold, then the Vikings quarterback, had his worst performance of the season in the wildcard round. Darnold was sacked nine times, several of those came when he held on to the ball for too long. Darnold has again been a regular season gem this time around, topping 4,000 yards and shining when it matters most. He has, however, thrown 14 interceptions, third behind only Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith. He’ll need to step up in the playoffs if he’s to alter the nagging doubts around his game. MJ
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills. Epic back-to-back comeback wins in December over the Bengals and Patriots highlighted the extent to which Buffalo’s talisman can drag them from the mire. No lead is safe with Allen in full flow. GS
AFC Championship Game
Jaguars over Texans. OC
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Jaguars over Broncos. BAG
Broncos over Bills. MJ
Patriots over Texans. GS
NFC Championship Game
Rams over Eagles. OC
Rams over Seahawks. BAG
Rams over Eagles. MJ
Seahawks over Eagles. GS
Your Super Bowl champion will be …
Rams over Jaguars. LA have every ingredient to sweep through the playoffs: an MVP-level quarterback, a dynamic pass-rush, elite coaching and a quality offensive line. They have fewer question marks than any team in the field. The only flaws are in their secondary and on special teams. But they’re healthier on the back-end now, and they’ve switched out their special teams coordinator. Plus, no other team can win in such a variety of ways. If it’s a rock fight, they have the defensive front. If it’s a shootout, they have the weapons on offense. It’s tough to pick against the Seahawks – and a Jags title would be exceptional – but the Rams are the most complete team. OC
Jaguars over Rams. Trevor Lawrence caps Jacksonville’s rapid rise by matching and then surpassing Matthew Stafford when it matters most. In a Super Bowl decided in the margins, the Jaguars’ defense and poise late provide the separation, confirming this run as a breakthrough rather than a premature arrival. Jason Mendoza rejoices. BAG
Rams over Broncos. At their best, the Rams dominate both sides of the ball. Stafford is playing the best football of his life. Sean McVay has a track record of winning tough playoff games on the road. Denver will be at home until the craziness of Super Bowl week, which can throw even great teams atilt. The Rams also are getting key players back at the right time including LT Alaric Jackson and WR Davante Adams. But ultimately it will be the Rams’ underrated run defense that will hold the Broncos down. MJ
Patriots over Seahawks. Chaos will grip the playoffs. It has to after the mad 18 weeks we have just witnessed. And yet the body of work these franchises have put together inspires confidence that they can fight through the wreckage. Seattle run a defense mean enough to win it all while New England are blessed with a diamond quarterback in Maye driving the most explosive passing attack in the NFL. It would be a spectacular chess match, one that the likely MVP, Maye, will conquer. GS
