So many meaningful MLB transactions took place over the holiday season. I am here to recap them all and provide some analysis for each.
Let’s take a trip around the league and catch up on what you may have missed.
Advertisement
Don’t forget: Keep a close eye on the Rotoworld Player News page so you don’t miss any of the action.
MLB: Toronto Blue Jays Kazuma Okamoto Press Conference
MLB Free Agent Tracker 2025-26: Blue Jays sign Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai lands with Astros
Stay up to date with the MLB free agent market this offseason, including player signings, contract details, and team fits as the 2025-26 Hot Stove heats up.
-
DJShortBW.jpg
D.J. Short
,
▶ Cubs Take a Shot on Edward Cabrera
The most recent news was big trade between the Marlins and Cubs with the mercurial Edward Cabrera heading to Chicago in exchange for outfielder Owen Caissie and two other prospects.
It’s been a long, winding road waiting for Cabrera to break out. He wields some of the best stuff in baseball with upper-90s velocity on two different fastballs, two plus breaking pitches, and a mid-90s changeup that may be one of the most unique individual pitches in the game.
Yet, success has mostly eluded him so far. Through 2024, his career walk rate sat above 13% – five percentage points higher than the league average – and he’d never thrown more than 100 innings in a single season.
Advertisement
Things may have finally clicked this past year. Cabrera dropped his arm angle from 42° to 36° and that paved the way for two huge adjustments.
First off, his sinker became a meaningful piece of his repertoire. Its usage rate jumped up from 9.5% to 20.4% and it wound up as Cabrera’s most thrown pitch against right-handed batters.
While it got crushed for a .589 slugging percentage, it was the first time in his career a single pitch had a zone rate above 53%. That sinker had a nearly 65% zone rate courtesy of Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard. If you’re ever looking for per pitch data, that’s the best public tool to do so.
Next, he was able to create separation between his breakers. He struggled to get drop on his curveball in the past and the movement profile of it and his slider blended together a bit too often.
Advertisement
This past season, that curve dropped an additional six and a half inches as its Run Value went from -1 in 2024 to +7. Check out the difference between them here.
Cabrera rode these adjustments to his best season yet. He had a 3.53 ERA on the season with a 25.8% strikeout rate and career-low 8.3% walk rate.
After a poor April, he had a sub-three ERA for the rest of the season. His 137 2/3 innings were a new high water mark too and he shook off a late season elbow strain to enter the offseason healthy. Although, there were some questions about the health of that elbow during his medical review.
The Cubs are betting on both his health and upside. Their rotation had a very stable floor led by Cade Horton with Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon as steady veterans. with Justin Steele due back from Tommy John surgery plus Javier Assad and Colin Rea as capable swing-men.
Advertisement
That depth allowed Chicago to take this risk on Cabrera. If it pays off, he could blossom into a top of rotation type arm through his late-20s and has three years of team control remaining.
They had to part with a decent package to take that risk too.
Caissie is a tooled up corner outfielder and former second round pick who’s entering his age-23 season. He’s taken nearly 1,000 plate appearances in Triple-A with a logjam in the Cubs’ outfield and gotten his swing-and-miss in control at that level in the process.
That could be key because his raw power is apparent. A 74.8 mph average swing speed would’ve been in the 86th percentile of qualified hitters and he has a 115.5 mph max exit velocity in the minors.
Advertisement
His small sample MLB data is ugly, but the Marlins turned Kyle Stowers into a stud this past year with similar flaws and Caissie should have the playing time to prove himself. He is a fun late round flyer.
▶ Tatsuya Imai Lands in Houston
After being projected to garner a deal near $200 million, Japanese star Tatsuya Imai signed with the Astros for three years and $54 million. That contract includes innings-based bonuses that start at 80 IP and could give him an extra $3 million per year. It also gives him the opportunity to opt-out after the first year.
Despite coming off a career season with a 1.92 ERA and NPB-best 27.8% strikeout rate the league was clearly skeptical as to whether or not Imai’s unique stuff would successfully port over to the majors.
Advertisement
He has a fastball that sits in the upper-90s from a low slot with a solid shape that should play. Yet, switching from the slightly smaller and tackier ball in Japan to the MLB ball will likely kill a bit of its vertical action.
Those types of fastballs are also more susceptible to fly balls and ergo, home runs. The NPB has been stuck in a deadball era, so that potential problem has never presented itself.
More so, Imai relied on a unique backwards slider as his outpitch in Japan. It had better than a 53% whiff rate against righties last season and was one of the most dominant individual pitches in the NPB.
That pitch is straight up crazy. Only Trey Yesavage, Chase Petty, Dauri Moreta, and Brock Burke threw sliders with at least one inch of average arm-side movement last season. It is incredibly unique.
Advertisement
Those two offerings were basically it though. They combined to make up 93% of his total pitches against righties and 71% against lefties. He’s shown a nasty splitter too plus a more traditional changeup, cutter, and vulcan (which acts like a sinker) at various points in his career as well.
The problem is when he had a more diverse repertoire, he was less effective. He walked more batters and struck out fewer. His MLB success will be tied to first how good his fastball and slider can be along with which of his other, more sparely used pitches can be effective.
If you want a more in-depth breakdown of Imai, check out this video I made about him.
His ADP has hovered around pick 150 in the few drafts since he signed with the Astros. That’s right between Bubba Chandler and Nathan Eovaldi. While I’m a bit skeptical of Imai’s long term success, it’s more likely his obscure stuff helps him find success early as the league adjusts to him.
Advertisement
▶ Kazuma Okamoto Joins Blue Jays
Somewhat surprisingly, the largest deal by total guaranteed money for this winter’s posted Japanese stars went to Kazuma Okamoto who signed a four-year, $60 million with the Blue Jays.
Okamoto is considered a relatively low-risk option to find MLB success with incredibly high contact rates, low swing-and-miss, six seasons of more than 30 home runs, and high-end corner infield defense in the NPB.
There are questions about all of those skills though.
His bat-to-ball ability may be the most secure despite the fact that he’ll see better stuff and much, much more velocity stateside. With that, Okamoto had an 84% contact rate against fastballs 94+ mph last season according to Eric Longenhagen. That’s a great sign.
Advertisement
There may be sneaky upside in his power production too. He scorched a 112.2 mph double off Cubs’ closer Daniel Palencia (on a 98 mph fastball) in an exhibition game last March.
According to Baseball Savant, his swing speed on that batted ball was 83 mph. That gives the inkling that he could have plus bat speed. He also had another 78 mph swing in that game. There’s an inkling of real power there! The Bat X believes so too, projecting Okamoto for 27 HR in 130 games.
Funny enough, teams seemed to be the most split on his defensive abilities after that was perceived to be one of his safest skills. He played mostly third base in the NPB and was considered a plus defender there and at first base while mixing in at left field some.
Advertisement
This contract and the existence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base tells us that the Blue Jays were more confident than his other suitors that he can not only be a solid defender, but capable at all of these spots. The expectation is that he’ll get the bulk of his playing time at third base and hold a super-utility role.
There is some playing time downside though. Okamoto is a right-handed batter. So, if he struggles against right-handed pitchers, he could fall into the small-side of a platoon with him, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, Nathan Lukes vying for two spots. And this doesn’t consider the chance of Toronto still signing Bo Bichette or Kyle Tucker.
Okamoto has a chance to be a really good player. There are just ample questions with him on both sides of the ball that make his playing time a bit shaky.
Advertisement
▶ More Hot Stove Quick Hits
◆ The Red Sox acquired Willson Contreras from the Cardinals for Hunter Dobbins and two minor league pitchers to be their new first baseman.
The 33-year-old Contreras still has top-end bat speed and fantastic underlying batted ball metrics that should play up in the right-handed hitters haven that is Fenway Park. He’ll join Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran in a top of the order that should produce plenty of runs.
Dobbins is coming off a torn ACL in July, but has a great chance to find space in a Cardinals rotation that’s devoid of any type of reliability once he’s healthy. A deep repertoire with three solid breaking balls should give him mid-rotation upside in St. Louis.
Advertisement
For my deep dynasty league players, the key piece in this trade was prospect Yhoiker Fajardo. He was a big riser this past season as an 18-year-old in Low-A with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, two-seamer to play off, and a firm slider that’s his out-pitch. He could generate Top 100 prospect buzz by mid-season if he maintains his helium.
◆ The third member of the trio of NPB stars that posted this offseason and first to sign a contract, Munetaka Murakami shocked the world by signing a two-year, $34 million contract with the White Sox.
I wrote an in-depth profile on Murakami here. His raw power could rival the league’s best, but his poor hit tool and rampant swing-and-miss gives him a floor so low that most teams didn’t even consider him a viable option.
Winding up the White Sox ensures him enough playing time to possibly work through these flaws and become a
Advertisement
◆ The Orioles pushed their chips in the middle of the table by acquiring Shane Baz for a package that included their two first round picks from the 2025 draft, a 2026 Competitive Balance Round A pick (number 33 overall), and two other intriguing prospects.
This is a massive bet on Baz. He’s coming off a rough season (4.87 ERA) and has had a tough battle back from elbow issues after recently being considered one of the most promising young pitchers in the game.
Multiple surgeries took most of his 2022, all of his 2023, and half 2024 season away. When he finally got going two years ago, his velocity and strikeouts were down.
Both of those bounced back this year, which was great. He managed to throw 166 1/3 innings too, which was also great.
Advertisement
A lot of his struggles could also be tied to the Rays moving from the pitcher friendly confines of Tropicana Field to the uber hitter friendly Steinbrenner Field, which is an exact replica of Yankee Stadium with dramatically more wind.
His 18.9% home run to fly ball rate would’ve been the highest among all qualified starters and led to a 5.90 ERA at home. Compare that to a 3.86 ERA at home and you begin to see a reasonable floor. Add in his three years of team control and this looks like a fun bet by Baltimore.
◆ The Pirates might finally be building a lineup to support Paul Skenes and their strong rotation. They acquired second baseman Brandon Lowe from the Rays in a three-team trade that also included the Astros and signed first baseman Ryan O’Hearn.
Those are two left-handed, run producers who will slot into the middle of their order and give them what actually resembles a major league caliber lineup for the first time in years.
Advertisement
In that trade for Lowe, Mike Burrows went back to the Astros and will fill a vital role as a mid-rotation starter for them. They hope to coax more potential out of him by adding a two-seamer to his repertoire too.
Otherwise, Jacob Melton went back to the Rays and figures to be their long term centerfielder. He’s always had exciting tools, just without the consistency to playing time runway to show them off. The 90th percentile outcome here is a 30-30 player.
The last fun piece involved, Mason Montgomery will bring his 99 mph heat from the left side and questionable control to a Pirates bullpen that’s devoid of a true closer. If he finds his command, there’s a good chance he’ll fill that void.
◆ Pete Fairbanks signed a deal with the Marlins to presumably be their closer in the wake of Ronny Henriquez’s surprising season-ending elbow surgery.
Advertisement
Fairbanks doesn’t have the same caliber of stuff he did a few years ago, but should have relative safety in his role plus a good park to pitch in and a new cutter that came on strong last September.
◆ The Mets’ exodus continued with Jeff McNeil being shipped out to the Athletics for a teenage pitching prospect. McNeil can still hit (111 wRC+ last season) and is slated for a full-time role in Sacramento’s incredibly hitter friendly Sutter Park. He’s a potentially worthwhile dart throw at second base or outfield in deeper leagues.
◆ There’s plenty more offseason action ahead with Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman and more great players still on the market. Make sure to keep up the Rotoworld Player News page so you don’t miss any of the action plus live stream and video content here all next week!
⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
