This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
TORONTO — The Blue Jays’ offseason won’t feel final until Kyle Tucker signs … wherever he signs.
While Bo Bichette remains an option for the Blue Jays at the right number, their recent addition of Okamoto to the infield shifts the likelihood towards Tucker, especially with Bichette reportedly set to meet with the Phillies soon. Tucker’s market has played out just as slowly, with some clubs hoping for an openness to a shorter-term deal at a higher annual value, but Toronto is well positioned to go long.
There’s nothing complicated about fit when it comes to players at the top of the market. Tucker fits the Blue Jays because he’s a very good baseball player, just like George Springer did back when Toronto made him a cornerstone signing five years ago. Looking beyond the obvious, though, we can see the challenges the Blue Jays face … and why it’s all worthwhile.
The Blue Jays are spending at record levels for this organization, emboldened by their World Series run and all of the profits that came with it. They’ll have one of the highest payrolls in Major League Baseball this season, which brings us to everyone’s favorite topic, the Competitive Balance Tax.
The basics, as they apply to the Blue Jays, are:
The result? Signing Tucker — or any top free agent from here — will cost the Blue Jays much more than just that player’s salary in 2026. It’s an oversimplification to call that a 90% tax on Tucker’s salary alone, though. This payroll is an accumulation of the entire roster, which the Blue Jays have built into a legitimate World Series threat and have done so without a true albatross contract on the books. Sure, Anthony Santander’s deal isn’t off to a flying start, but they aren’t sinking $40 million a year into him.
Money matters: Down the road
The Blue Jays have a handful of big contracts coming off their books a year from now, which includes:
This is the key moment in any conversation about money. Yes, the Blue Jays would be hit hard by the CBT in 2026, but there’s an opportunity to soften that a year from now, if needed.
This is also where player development comes in, more important than ever. To balance out this top-end spending, the Blue Jays will need to develop some contributors internally. If Trey Yesavage can pitch like a No. 2 behind Cease for the next five years, that’s an incredible advantage not only on the diamond, but in the spreadsheets. Even development stories like Braydon Fisher are crucial, giving Toronto a legitimate MLB reliever without spending $10 million on a veteran.
It’s easy to look at the Blue Jays’ books and say, “Trade Santander, trade Berríos.” This isn’t a video game, though, and this organization is not at all eager to part with a prospect in order to make a deal work. Savvy financial planning with some development success stories is the answer here.
The future of the outfield
The Blue Jays have done well enough acquiring outfielders like Springer, Varsho and Teoscar Hernández over the years. They’ve nailed some later-career development in players like Nathan Lukes, too, but it’s been ages since this organization drafted and developed a star outfielder, stretching all the way back to Vernon Wells.
Dollars aside, the Blue Jays’ outfield needs another cornerstone, especially with two on their way out in Springer and potentially Varsho. The upgrade to Tucker in 2026 would be noticeable, but in 2027 and beyond, that grows even more valuable.
The money needs to work, which is no simple thing, but the Blue Jays are still in Tucker’s market for a reason, trying to land the whale after a winter of reeling in big fish.
