Boston College Eagles 7-9 (0-3) at Clemson Tigers 14-3 (4-0)
7:00pm Eastern
ACC Network
Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, SC
Clemson is off to their second consecutive 4-0 start to ACC play. It has raised expectations from “fringe tournament team” to “how good of a seed can they get.” This Tiger squad had an emotional win against Cincinnati to end non-conference play that may have had a profound impact on their psyche and season-long trajectory. Clemson held a 23-3 lead before the 10-minute mark, led by 22 early in the second half, and then allowed the margin to dwindle down to 1 point before Dillon Hunter knocked down four clutch free throws to salvage the win.
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Who knows where this team would be had they blown that game like they did against BYU. Certainly one loss worse, but would it have created doubts that led them to wilt when SMU or Syracuse made their late runs? We’ll never know, but this team now seems to embody their “grit” slogan and has developed some mental toughness to go along with their tough, physical brand of basketball.
The Tigers have no bad losses (a Quad 2 loss at Georgetown is their worst) and are already 4-2 in Quad 1 games. With Boston College, a team ranked 176th in the NET, coming to town, they must avoid a Quad 4 loss to the Eagles to keep the train rolling.
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Getting to Know the Boston College Eagles
The Eagles offense is downright paltry. They average 69 points per game which is 325th nationally. Even those numbers are inflated from OT losses to FAU (78 points) and Tulane (90 points). In their three ACC games, they’re averaging only 62 points per game. When adjusted for tempo, they still rank just 274th in offensive efficiency. Clemson’s defense comes in ranked 18th nationally in efficiency. The Tigers really should hold them under 60 points.
Part of their issue is they can’t shoot the 3-ball. In modern college basketball, you can’t really get away with that. They’re under 30% on the season. Guards Fred Payne and Luka Toews are their primary threats, but they also let their leading scorer, Donald Hand, hoist them up and he is only making 22.1% on 104 attempts. A year ago he shot 36.8% on 190 attempts. Clemson has suffered a similar fate with Nick Davidson who shot 37.1% on 124 attempts last year but is only making 29% of his 3s this year. The huge difference is Davidson has only attempted 31 3-pointers. If they start falling for Davidson, Clemson will get a boost, but in the meantime, he isn’t killing possessions with low percentage looks.
Perhaps a lack of options explains why Donald Hand is shooting at such high volume while earning a remarkably poor 92.3 offensive rating and a 32% FG percentage overall.
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On defense, the Eagles are actually rather good. In that sense, they’re much like the 2012-13 Clemson Tigers that ranked 59th defensively but 198th on offense. It was a squad that couldn’t shoot the 3 efficiently (other than Jordan Roper), and kept games at least close by slowing the tempo and blocking some shots. KJ McDaniels was a block machine for that squad as some may recall. They finished 13-18 and that very well be where this year’s Eagles land.
Boston College currently ranks 62nd in defensive efficiency by defending the 3-point line well, blocking shots, and forcing teams to extend possessions. Jayden Hastings is averaging an impressive 1.4 blocks per game which is 0.8 blocks per game higher than Carter Welling, the leader for Clemson. Here’s the catch, he is averaging 6 fouls per 40 minutes of game time. Get him in foul trouble and you open up the inside. If you start scoring with any real efficiency, Boston College can’t keep up.
Big Picture
Clemson is given a 93% chance to win this game by KenPom. Given the Tigers are at home and facing the worst team in the ACC (see power rankings video below and please consider subscribing to the Youtube Channel), this would be literally the most shocking ACC loss the Tigers could possibly take. Unless Donald Hand has a breakout performance, it shouldn’t be a close contest. Donald Hand was 1-10 shooting the last time he faced Clemson and will have Jake Wahlin guarding him this time so I don’t see that happening.
KenPom picks Clemson winning 73-57 and I think that is spot on. Winning by double-digits while holding them under 60 points would be a success. Clemson just needs to show some maturity. They struggled against Mercer (but ultimately won) after an emotional loss to BYU. Clemson just broke the AP Top 25 and has a big showdown with Miami on Saturday. They need to avoid reading their own press clippings and looking ahead to Miami. If they can manage that, they should win handily.
