The Yankees and Giants open the 2026 MLB season on March 25. We’ll be counting down to that date with our annual preview series, with each story looking ahead to the coming season by breaking down a particular topic, division by division.
Today: Ranking the reigning division winners’ chances of repeating
Quick trivia question, trusted readers: How many teams repeated as division champions last season? That’s to say, who won division titles in both 2024 and ’25?
The number of repeat champs is a little high but hardly unusual. Here are the numbers of defending champs to win again in the previous eight seasons:
2025: 4
2024: 3
2023: 3
2022: 2
2021: 2
2020: 3
2019: 3
2018: 4
So, six out of the past eight seasons, we’ve had at least three repeat division champions. As we head into 2026, should we expect to see that many again?
Here’s a look at the six division champions from last season, ranked by the likelihood that they’ll defend their division title. (Each club is listed with its 2025 record and margin of victory in the division.)
1. Dodgers (NL West)
93-69, 3 games over Padres
There are reasons to be somewhat skeptical of the Dodgers, at least how they currently stand. First, they’re getting older: Most of their key players are in their 30s, including four key lineup pieces who have already turned 33. Second, their outfield projects to rank in the bottom half of the Majors unless they make a significant move to add to it. Third, they won this division by fewer games last season than in any of their other division title seasons since 2018. (They didn’t win the division at all in ’21.)
The Padres, Giants and Diamondbacks might not necessarily be that settled right now, but they’re hardly packing it in. Those three clubs clearly all plan to contend this season, and challenge the Dodgers. But these are still the two-time defending World Series champs, they’re still stacked and they’re still likely to make some moves that make them even better. They’re my pick to win the World Series again this year. So, obviously, they’re the easy choice to top this list. Again. Always, really.
2. Mariners (AL West)
90-72, 3 games over Astros
Now that they’ve finally won that first, ever-so-elusive division title since 2001 — 2001! — why not pick them to do it again? They’re pretty clearly the favorites in the AL West heading into ’26. Part of that is because of their competition. The Astros missed the playoffs last season, and Houston’s roster looks less imposing now. The Rangers look like they’re in all sorts of limbo, the A’s have an exciting offense but still have big pitching questions and the Angels haven’t been a factor here in a long time.
But there’s no reason to think Seattle shouldn’t be even better this season, with a healthy pitching staff, two MVP candidates in Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh and a full season of Josh Naylor. The Mariners could presumably also make another offensive upgrade or two. They finally broke the seal last season, and they look like the obvious favorites in this division moving forward.
3. Phillies (NL East)
96-66, 13 games over Mets
A lot of things actually went wrong for the Phillies last season. Bryce Harper wasn’t quite his MVP self. Nick Castellanos’ production fell off a cliff, and J.T. Realmuto declined as well. Aaron Nola had a nightmare season. The bullpen was better, but hardly deep. And yet, they still cruised to a division title — easily.
It should be more difficult for them this season, at least theoretically. The Braves have had rotten luck the past couple of years, and that’s bound to turn around at some point. The Mets have lost some franchise icons but are still loaded with talent, with more moves likely to come. The Marlins and Nationals are young, plucky and interesting.
But Philadelphia still looks to be the class of this division, and it is highly motivated to win as many games as possible and finally get the title it is so desperate for before the roster has nothing to show for itself but AARP cards. I’m not sure I’d pick the Phillies in 2028, or maybe even ’27. But ’26 still feels like their time.
4. Blue Jays (AL East)
94-68, won tiebreaker over Yankees
Where exactly do we put the Blue Jays here? On one hand, they’re clearly better than they were last season, a year, one feels obliged to remind, in which they came so, so, so close (multiple times!) to winning the World Series. They now have Dylan Cease in the rotation, Tyler Rogers in the bullpen, Kazuma Okamoto in the lineup and, frankly, it would be sort of shocking if they don’t add somebody else, probably somebody big, before Spring Training.
But the division around them is leveling up across the board. The Red Sox added Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray and aren’t done. With all their young talent, they look for all the world like the team we have always thought Boston was supposed to be. The Orioles’ front office is finally making aggressive moves like their fans have been demanding for a while now. The Rays are fascinating and have an offense so sneaky good that they won’t miss Brandon Lowe or Jake Mangum. Oh, and the Yankees — yes, the Yankees, the team that actually did tie with the Blue Jays last season atop this division — still have Aaron Judge and have all the urgency on the planet to win, right now, immediately.
This looks like the best division in baseball. I still think Toronto is the best team in it, but it will get challenged from all corners this season.
5. Brewers (NL Central)
97-65, 5 games over Cubs
Hey, look, it’s another know-nothing media member downplaying the Brewers’ chances again. Seriously, how many division titles does this team have to win to get a little respect around here? (They’ve now won three in a row, and four of the past five.)
As always seems to be the case, there are reasons to be skeptical of the Brewers. They might trade staff ace Freddy Peralta. They can’t possibly get out-of-nowhere contributions from some of the no-name guys who emerged last season. They really did have just about everything land perfectly for them in 2025.
But now: The Cubs are still good, and the Reds and Pirates should be better. I’m not sold on the Brewers this season, just like I wasn’t in 2025 and ’24 and ’23, when I was wrong every single time. I am sure I will be this season as well.
6. Guardians (AL Central)
88-74, 1 game over Tigers
Your guess is as good as mine in this division. Is it possible that every team in this division — with the possible exception of, uh, the White Sox — is going to be worse than it was last season? Every team has huge questions, particularly on offense, and picking a winner feels like a roll of the dice.
Will the Royals push forward? Will the Twins surprise? Will the Tigers have Tarik Skubal all year? Will the White Sox keep improving? Will the Guardians basically just do the same thing they did last season? I have no idea. It could be the Guardians, sure. But honestly: Pick a name out of a hat.
