Kansas State Basketball: UCF Preview – Stats, Analytics, Analysis

UCF Knights

Game Information

When: Wednesday, January 14th, 2026

Where: @ Bramlage (formerly known as The Octagon of Doom)

What Time?: 7 P.M. CT

2025-2026 Season

Overall Record: 13-2

Advertisement

Big 12 Record: 2-1

Previous 3 Games

1/11: W – 73-72 vs Cincinatti @ Home

1/6: L – 76 – 87 vs Oklahoma State @ Away

1/3: W – 81 – 75 vs Kansas @ Home

UCF Personnel

Starters

Bench

Key Analytics

(Per KenPom.com – National Rank in ())

KenPom Ranking – 46

Offense

Adjusted Efficiency: 120.2 (39)

Adjusted Tempo: 69.3 (114)

Average Possession Length: 15.6 (24)

Effective Field Goal%: 55.4 (47)

Offensive Rebound%: 38.9 (13)

Three Point%: 37.5 (26)

Two Point %: 54.9 (87)

Defense

Adjusted Efficiency: 103.9 (85)

Adjusted Tempo: 69.3 (114)

Average Possession Length: 18 (307)

Advertisement

Effective Field Goal%: 55.4 (47)

Offensive Rebound%: 27.5 (55)

Three Point%: 33.3 (153)

Two Point %: 50.2 (135)

UCF Advantages

Adjusted Efficiency

UCF Offense: 102.2 (39)

K-State Defense: 105.1 (102)

Notes

UCF is interesting. In general, teams that like to push the pace on offense tend to sacrifice some efficiency, but the Knights have found a happy medium. They push the ball in transition and score early in the clock, but still run a relatively efficient offense with senior point guard Themus Fulks pulling the strings.

Kansas State is not a good defensive team, but maybe UCF’s fast pace helps? I can’t tell if the Wildcats have bad individual defenders or if their team defense is bad. The longer a team moves the ball against this defense, the more opportunity there is for a breakdown. UCF is going to shoot early in the clock, which, in theory, means the Wildcats should only have to guard a single action before the Knights pull the trigger. Maybe that cuts down on the egregious mistakes I’ve seen late in the clock?

Advertisement

Offensive Rebound %

UCF Offense: 38.9 (13)

K-State Defense: 32.4 (242)

Notes

It’s never a good thing when the opponent’s strength is directly correlated with your weakness.

UCF is a good offensive rebounding team. Jamichael Stillwell is one of the best in the country at tracking down his own team’s misses.

Kansas State is a bad defensive rebounding team.

It’s hard to win games when the opponent gets up more shots than you do.

Three Point %

UCF Offense: 37.5 (26)

K-State Defense: 31.6 (93)

Notes

The good news is that Kansas State is better at defending the three than the two. The bad news is they’re really bad at defending the two.

Advertisement

Riley Kugel (39%), Jordan Burks (38%), and Themus Fulks (48% on low volume) can all light it up from deep. UCF hits its 3’s at an impressive clip, but some of that comes down to UCF being selective about the 3’s it takes. Most are wide open in transition off drive-and-kicks. They drive the ball until the defense collapses, and then they start finding wide-open shooters.

Kansas State has to play connected, inside-out defense. They can’t let UCF dominate the paint, but they can’t pack it in; otherwise, the Knights will shoot them out of the building. It’s all about containing the ball, keeping Fulks out of the paint, and recovering to shooters. That should make you nervous.

K-State Advantages

Effective FG%

K-State Offense: 55 (58)

Advertisement

UCF Defense: 50.1 (134)

Notes

As always, PJ Haggerty is an efficient player, and since he’s the Kansas State offense, the Kansas State offense is efficient. It’s up to the Wildcats All-American to control this game on offense. It’s hard to play fast if you’re taking the ball out of the net. If Kansas State can score, it slows down the UCF offense, and that’s the goal.

3-Point %

K-State Offense: 37.4 (28)

UCF Defense: 33.3 (153)

Here’s the Wildcat’s shot in this game. They shoot it well from deep, and UCF doesn’t defend the 3-ball (they don’t defend the two-ball either).

Nate Johnson and Abdi Bashir both shoot the deep ball at over 40% on high volume, and David Castillo can get hot and drain multiple threes as well. Haggerty isn’t a great outside shooter, but he’s serviceable at 36%, and he’s taking off-the-dribble, high-level-of-difficulty shots.

Advertisement

These are two teams with questionable defenses. That’s a good thing for the Wildcats. I think they can win a shootout, but I know they lose a rock fight.

Brief Thoughts

Kansas State should kidnap Johnny Dawkins. He plays the type of up-tempo basketball the Wildcats attempt to employ, but does so while winning basketball games.

These are two average-to-below-average defensive teams that lean on their offense to win games. Kansas State’s playing at a fast tempo helps paper over some of its shortcomings in half-court execution (both on offense and defense), and UCF.

UCF isn’t going to overwhelm Kansas State with talent. They’re good, but they’re not BYU or Arizona good. This is another winnable game. I said Arizona State was a “must-win” for the NCAA Tournament. I think that loss put the Wildcats’ odds of making the tournament under 10%. They need to win this one to maintain a faint glimmer of hope.

Advertisement

Predictions

KenPom

Kansas State: 85

UCF: 84

Drew

Kansas State: 91

UCF: 87

I’m going to try this one more time. KenPom likes the ‘Cats, and I like the matchup. UCF wants to play fast, and Kansas State needs to play fast.

Haggerty goes off for 20+, and the pace frees up Bashir and Johnson from deep. This one could go either way, but my opportunities to pick the Wildcats to win are rapidly dwindling. This is one they can win. I have no faith in this pick, but I’m making it anyway.