By Richard Pagliaro | Thursday, January 15, 2026
Photo credit: Daniel Pockett/Getty
Major finals are now as exclusive as members-only celebrations.
World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 2 Jannik Sinner have split the last eight straight Grand Slam championships and are riding an Open Era record of three consecutive major final meetings.
The gap between the New Two and the rest of the pack is so wide, closing that chasm looks about as easy as leaping the Yarra River in a single bound.
Former world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev suggests it’s mission impossible to displace the world’s top two in 2026 for a simple reason: They’re that much better than everyone else.
“Hey, when someone hits stronger than you, puts everything in the court, runs definitely not slower than you, serves not worse than you, it’s tough to beat him,” Medvedev said. “But you can always try. But in terms of consistency that they both showed last year, it’s probably almost impossible for anyone to get to this No. 2 spot.
“But then, you know, the slams [are] most important, and they were in three out of four finals last year. But you can always beat them in one match.”
ESPN analyst Patrick McEnroe told Tennis Now he believes the chasm between Alcaraz and Sinner and the rest of the ATP is even greater than the divide the Big 3 enjoyed in their primes.
“To me they’ve distanced themselves even more so than the big three did just in the last two years, and that’s saying something because those guys dominated, but there was Murray, there was Wawrinka, there was Delpo, Cilic, there was guys that got into the mix,” McEnroe told Tennis Now on an ESPN Zoom call on Tuesday afternoon.
“But at the moment, it’s hard to imagine anyone else getting into the mix even someone like Ben Shelton, who’s getting closer.”
There’s a strong likelihood we will see reigning AO champion Sinner, playing to become the first man since Novak Djokovic to three-peat in Melbourne Park, and Alcaraz, aiming to become the youngest man to complete the calendar Slam, square off in the February 1st Australian Open final.
However, if one of the top two falters, who are the most likely party crashers to reach the final?
Here are our choices for the Top 5 Party Crashers in Melbourne Park.
(4) Novak Djokovic
Ad In:
The 10-time AO champion is the most successful player in Open Era history and returns to his favorite court driven to capture a record-extending 25th Grand Slam crown. Arguably still the most complete player in the game, Djokovic defeated Alcaraz on Rod Laver Arena in the 2025 Australian Open quarterfinals—and looked good doing it—reached the semifinals of all four Slams last year and won the last tournament he played in Athens last fall. Despite advancing age, the Serbian superstar remains a supreme problem solver who is energized by skeptics. If I had $10 for everytime some yokel declared “Stick a fork in Djokovic—he’s done” I could buy you lifetime box seats to the AO and a house on the Gold Coast as well. You must hold serve to master majors. Djokovic was fourth on the ATP Tour in service games held in 2025 trailing only Sinner, Taylor Fritz and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard—and ahead of Carlos Alcaraz, who was sixth in service games held. Djokovic is the last man not named Alcaraz or Sinner to raise a major title trophy.
Ad Out:
Time is the only unbeaten adversary in tennis. At age 38, Djokovic is still remarkably resilient, but can his body, wracked by nearly 1,400 career matches, recover round-to-round in the best-of-five set format? Given Djokovic has lost five matches in a row to Sinner and resides in the two-time champions bottom half of the draw, is it realistic to really think Djokovic can beat two dominant champions 14 and 16 years his junior to rule Melbourne again? The fact Djokovic opted against playing a tune-up tournament means he’ll need to take the Serena Williams route of playing yourself into a tournament without recent match play, which can obviously be hazardous at his age.
(11) Daniil Medvedev
Ad In:
Working with coaches Thomas Johansson (the 2002 AO champion) and Aussie Rohan Goetzke, the cerebral Medvedev showed the power of positive thinking rolling to the Brisbane title. Medvedev should arrive in Melbourne Park with the confidence that comes from that title—and the fact he’s reached the AO final in three of the last five years, including 2024 when he held a two-set lead over Sinner before hitting the wall and 2022 when he led Rafa Nadal by two sets before the Spanish warrior’s epic comeback. Medvedev knows how to win Down Under and could thrive in the second quarter of the draw where third-seeded Alexander Zverev and seventh-seeded Felix Auger-Aliassime are the two only seeds above him. Medvedev looks fit and his flat strikes can present a maddening challenge at the AO.
Ad Out:
Though Meddy Bear has roared in Melbourne Park, he’s coming off an abysmal 2025 Slam season that saw him upset by American Learner Tien in the AO second round before suffering three consecutive major first-round Slam losses, including his infamous US Open meltdown defeat to Benjamin Bonzi. Guess what? Medvedev could potentially face the 25th-seeded Tien in the fourth round. Tien punished Medvedev building a 5-7, 7-5, 4-0 lead when the former No. 1 tapped out of the Beijing semifinals in September. Medvedev largely remains net averse so if he’s not landing his first serve, shortening points can be a problem. He’s coming off one of his poorest recent serving seasons. While Medvedev was 10th in aces, he was only 24th in service games held in 2025, which is not a recipe for success.
(3) Alexander Zverev (GER)
Ad In:
Riding one of the biggest first serves in the sport, the former Olympic gold-medal champion reached the 2025 AO final. When world No. 3 Zverev is landing his first serve, he can dictate play against almost anyone. Remember, Zverev nearly knocked Sinner out in the Vienna final last fall before losing 6-3, 3-6, 5-7. Zverev moves well, can crack his two-handed backhand crosscourt or down the line and likes the conditions in Melbourne Park having reached semifinals in 2020 and 2024. After Roland Garros, the AO is Zverev’s best Slam—he owns a 31-10 record there for a 76 percent winning percentage. Though he continues his hunt for a maiden major title, don’t forget: Zverev has twice won the prestigious ATP Finals as well as Olympic gold so clearly he can handle big-match pressure when he’s on his game.
Ad Out:
While Zverev says all the right things about winning a Grand Slam, does he really believe it? Sinner crushed Zverev in the 2025 AO Final handing the powerful German his third loss in as many Slam finals. A bigger issue is Zverev’s forehand can be spinny and land short in the court leaving him vulnerable and defensive given his penchant for playing further back beyond the baseline. Ask yourself this: If Zverev is facing Sinner or Alcaraz at 5-all, 30-all, do you really believe in his chances of winning a pivotal forehand exchange? Though Zverev’s brother Mischa was an excellent volleyer, his younger brother is not nearly as comfortable in the front court and would rather bang away from behind the baseline. Zverev’s draw, on the surface, looks more problematic than Djokovic or Medvedev as he faces big-serving Gabriel Diallo in his opener followed by a second-rounder vs. either Alexandre Muller or Aussie Alexei Popyrin, who upset Djokovic at the US Open a couple years ago.
(8) Ben Shelton (USA)
Ad In:
Big Ben looms large in majors. Empowered by that electric lefty serve, Shelton soared to the AO semifinals last year. That run came two years after Shelton made the quarterfinals in his Melbourne debut. In fact, though he’s only played 13 Grand Slam main draws, Shelton has reached quarterfinals or better at three of the four majors. On his worst surface, Shelton took a set off of eventual-champion Alcaraz in the Roland Garros fourth round last June. When Shelton is landing that lethal lefty serve, he’s a handful for anyone on any surface. Shelton is a rarity in that he’s willing to attack net on key points and will keep coming even if you pass him. Given his 2025 US Open ended painfully and prematurely when he retired with an arm injury vs. Adrian Mannarino, you have to think the explosive Shelton will be super pumped for his return—particularly coming off a season that saw him win the Masters 1000 championship in Canada and qualify for the ATP Finals.
Ad Out:
Shelton’s return game and two-handed backhand are both works in progress. In fact, Shelton broke only about 16 percent of the time last season, which was 43rd on the ATP Tour. As a result, he plays a lot of tiebreakers, which can be crap shoots. While he’s worked hard to develop his slice backhand, Shelton still tends to stiff-arm his two-handed backhand and sometimes pushes that stroke rather than snapping it. Consequently, if you’re playing Shelton on a big point you must be willing to force him to pass you with a backhand because it often looks like he doesn’t fully trust that shot. Shelton faces a tough draw that features fellow lefty Ugo Humbert in his opener, possibly retiring Gael Monfils in the second round and potentially either Mannarino or 30th-seeded Valentin Vacherot, who stunned the tennis world winning Shanghai in a fairy-tale run last fall. Even if he gets through that gauntlet, Shelton would play Sinner in the quarterfinals if seeds hold true to form.
(5) Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)
Ad In:
The 2019 Australian Open boys’ champion has a meager 3-4 AO record with two opening-round exits in four appearances. So why is Musetti on this list? He’s among the most gifted players when it comes to shifting spins and racquet skills and Musetti has a major track record. The Muse Man has contested semifinals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and lost to Sinner in the US Open quarterfinals last September. Musetti tuned up for the AO reaching the Hong Kong final and cracking the Top 5 for the first time—this after he made the ATP Finals field thanks to Djokovic’s withdrawal. In fact, Musetti has contested quarterfinals or better at seven of his last 10 tournaments. Musetti, who owns one of the most dynamic one-handed backhands in tennis, resides in the third quarter of the draw that’s a one-hander’s heaven featuring Grigor Dimitrov, Stefanos Tsitsipas and three-time major champion Stan Wawrinka.
Ad Out:
The AO is the only Slam where Musetti has a losing record (3-4). When he doesn’t employ his all-court skills and allows himself to be pushed back behind the baseline, heavy hitters can overpower him on faster surfaces. Musetti has physically faded in some punishing major majors tapping out at times. He told Tennis Now in a pre-season interview strengthening his physicality was a focus during the offseason. Taylor Fritz, who Musetti beat en route to 2024 Wimbledon semifinals, is favorite in this quarter, however the American has been battling knee issues that limited his offseason training, which is one reason why we’re putting Musetti on this list along with the fact we love Musetti’s style of play when he’s in full flow.
(25) Learner Tien (USA)
Ad In:
If the ATP had a stat for wrong-footing opponents, Tien would surely be among the Tour leaders. The left-handed Tien is a smart, savvy player, who has the uncanny skill of holding the ball on his racquet before striking. Tien’s strokes are tough to read and he showed it upsetting three-time finalist Medvedev at the 2025 AO. Working with Hall of Famer Michael Chang, Tien made great strides last season. He was 12th on Tour in return games won, he beat Musetti and Medvedev back to back to make the Beijing final, falling to Sinner then won successive championships in Metz and the Next Gen ATP Finals.
Ad Out:
The Tien serve is pretty pedestrian compared to other players on this list. He doesn’t consistently curl the left slider serve wide in the ad court as much as you might think he could. The 20-year-old Tien is listed at 5’11”, 160 pounds and can be vulnerable against stronger players and heavy hitters. Still, he’s a creative shotmaker, a blast to watch and he’s a fierce competitor who rarely shows any negative emotion on court, which is rare for such a young player.
