Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for the NFL divisional playoffs.
All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last week, Farmer posted a 2-4 (.333) record. He has a 173-99 (.636) record over the regular season and playoffs.
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Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in last week would have been 1-5 (.167). For the season, his record against the spread is 127-151 (.457).
All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area.
No. 6 Bills at No. 1 Broncos
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix scrambles during a win over the Chargers on Jan. 4. (David Zalubowski / Associated Press)
Today, 1:30. TV: CBS, Paramount+.
Line: Broncos by 1½. O/U: 46½.
It will be huge for the Bills if they can get a timely turnover or two against an offense that struggled against the Chargers’ second-string defense in a regular-season finale. The concern is the idea of Josh Allen, as beat up as he is, putting the team on his back yet again, this time against a rested team and at altitude. Sean Payton is the kind of coach who makes good use of an extra week of preparation, and the Broncos have proven this season they can close out tight games.
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Pick: Broncos 27, Bills 24
No. 6 49ers at No. 1 Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold passes during a win over the San Francisco 49ers on Jan. 3. (Jed Jacobsohn / Associated Press)
Today, 5 p.m. TV: Fox, Fox Deportes.
Line: Seahawks by 7. O/U: 44½.
The Seahawks beat the 49ers soundly in their finale and now they’re coming off a week’s rest. San Francisco just traveled across the country and won a physical game in which they lost star tight end George Kittle. These division opponents know each other well so this is likely to be a fairly close game. The edge goes to the healthier and more-rested team, and it helps that Seattle will have that deafening crowd.
Pick: Seahawks 24, 49ers 20
No. 5 Texans at No. 2 Patriots
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye passes during a playoff win over the Chargers on Jan. 11. (Greg M. Cooper / Associated Press)
Sunday, noon. TV: ABC, ESPN.
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Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 40½.
Although the Texans roughed up the Steelers in the first round, C.J. Stroud had a difficult outing. New England’s defense doesn’t have great pass rushers but can stop the run and put the pressure on Stroud to make plays. Drake Maye is outstanding and Mike Vrabel is an elite coach. The Patriots will need their best performance against the NFL’s top defense. This feels like a low-scoring game between two of the league’s best-coached teams.
Pick: Patriots 20, Texans 17
No. 5 Rams at No. 2 Bears
Rams wide receiver Davante Adams, left, tries to run past Carolina Panthers linebacker Christian Rozeboom during the Rams’ playoff win on Jan. 10. (Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)
Sunday, 3:30 p.m. TV: NBC, Peacock, Universo.
Line: Rams by 3½. O/U: 48½.
Weather could be a significant factor here, and this game figures to be cold. Chicago has lived off of turnovers and late-game heroics, and that could come into play. The Rams are certainly capable of a letdown. But they also have Matthew Stafford, who should win league MVP and has been to the mountaintop before (unlike all the other remaining playoff quarterbacks). The Rams’ defense needs to contain Caleb Williams without over-pursuing him.
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Pick: Rams 28, Bears 23
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
