2026 is here, and while we’re still a couple of weeks away from UFC action, it’s time to look ahead.
One of the things we love about MMA is its unpredictability, and never was that more prominent than in 2025. Ten of the eleven UFC titles changed hands at least once last year, with only Valentina Shevchenko holding onto an undisputed title from January through the year. It’s unlikely we have another year like that, but it’s also unlikely that all the current champions remain that way until 2027.
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So, who is most likely to lose their belt this year, who is most likely to keep theirs, and who is the best bet for an out-of-nowhere title run as Joshua Van gave us?
Join MMA Fighting’s Mike Heck, Jed Meshew, and Alexander K. Lee as they look ahead to 2026.
1. Which UFC champion is most likely to lose their title in 2026?
Heck: Joshua Van
This one seems like the chalk answer, but I’m mostly saying this because, despite it being a legit win at UFC 323 over Alexandre Pantoja, I learned nothing new about Joshua Van, nor am I confident he’s the best flyweight in the world. The beauty of this sport, and this division in general, is that Van can answer that question in two fights or less.
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With Pantoja likely to return no later than the third quarter, the second-best flyweight of all time will get his chance to regain the title. But Van may end up fighting before that against Manel Kape or Tatsuro Taira, and those are both super tough fights.
Meshew: Alexander Volkanovski
Here’s the harsh truth about Volkanovski: the man may be an all-time great, but he’s also 37 years old.
Last year, Volkanovski reclaimed the featherweight title, beating Diego Lopes for the vacant belt after Ilia Topuria moved up. It was an impressive performance and achievement from Volk, given his age and the fact that he was coming off a pair of brutal KO losses. But for as impressive as he was, that was also the worst I’ve ever seen Volkanovski look.
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Make no mistake, Volkanovski won the fight clearly, but the gap between him and Lopes in technical skills was vast, and Lopes still made a fight of it because Volkanovski was obviously not the same athlete he used to be. That’s not a problem that gets better with time, but worse. Volkanovski is rematching Lopes in a few weeks, and while he’s a justified favorite, there’s also a real chance that another year of age means Lopes catches him this time. And if Lopes doesn’t, the next guy will.
Father Time is undefeated in MMA. The greats, like Volk, can delay it for a while, but eventually, he always wins out.
Lee: Tom Aspinall
There are so many ways Tom Aspinall could lose his belt.
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First of all, this is heavyweight, we’re talking about. Yes, the contender field is currently a horror show, but when the big boys come to play, chaos tends to follow, and Aspinall is one slip of a banana peel away from being caught by, I don’t know, a Waldo Cortes-Acosta flurry or a Valter Walker heel hook and it’s all over. Heck, according to Aspinall critics, not dominating Ciryl Gane in the first five minutes of their fight means Aspinall was headed to certain doom.
Speaking of Gane, his fateful eye poke also has to be considered, as there is no timetable for Aspinall’s return as he addresses lingering issues with his vision. It would suck if Aspinall misses out on another chunk of his competitive prime, but if the UFC receives any indication he can’t fight in 2026, they’ll tear that title from his waist tout suite.
2. Which UFC champion is most likely to retain their title in 2026?
Heck: Tom Aspinall (???????)
Look, this question is incredibly tough because this year could go off the rails in several divisions (including my out-of-the-box) answer for the next question. After weighing everything out, Tom Aspinall ends up being my answer.
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Aspinall may not fight at all this year, and after everything they put this man through during the Jon Jones heavyweight championship era, benching him for most of a 24-month stretch in the prime of his fighting career, if there’s any hope this guy can fight, stripping him is straight ridiculous.
My guess is the UFC will throw Ciryl Gane in an interim title fight — perhaps against Alex Pereira in “Poatan’s” quest to become a three-division champ. Either way, a big fight would present itself for Aspinall by the end of the year, and truth be told, I would probably pick Aspinall against either guy. So for me, it’s the safest pick on the board, even though there is a more obvious answer, but again, a curveball is incoming.
Meshew: Islam Makhachev
This is an incredibly difficult one to choose, because every champion right now either seems vulnerable or has already talked about moving weight classes. As such, my initial reaction was to pick the only champion who didn’t lose a belt in 2025, Valentina Shevchenko, but she’s also getting up there in years, and there’s a chance she moves up as well.
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So, given all that, I’ve settled on welterweight champion Islam Makhachev.
Makhachev is extremely unlikely to move up to 185 pounds, so that’s one concern out of the way, and he also might be staring at a relatively easy 2026 schedule. It’s completely up in the air what the UFC will choose to do at 170 pounds, but Makhachev has been lobbying for Kamaru Usman and may well get his wish. And while that would be a travesty of justice, it also should be an easy win for Makhachev.
After that, fights against Michael Morales, Ian Machado Garry, or Shavkat Rakhmonov are all possibilities (Makhachev has a good chance against any of those fighters), but it seems like this may be the year we get Makhachev vs. Ilia Topuria. I have always believed that was a pretty straightforward win for Makhachev, even at lightweight, and at welterweight, he’s simply far too big for Topuria. So Makhachev may go all of 2026 without ever fighting a legit top contender.
Lee: Kayla Harrison
Barring a somewhat-of-a-surprise retirement, I’ve got Kayla Harrison keeping the good times rolling into 2027.
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We’ll have to wait a little longer than expected to see this one play out, but I’ll tell you now that I’m picking Harrison to beat the returning Amanda Nunes whenever that fight is inevitably rescheduled. It’s been a long layoff for “The Lioness” and even though Harrison might not be anywhere near as well-rounded as Nunes in her prime, this ain’t Nunes in her prime. As Henry Cejudo recently learned, the game is unforgiving for athletes who think they can dictate when they come and go, and that’s going to apply to Nunes as well.
After that, we’re talking about women’s 135, an absolute wasteland of a division with zero compelling contenders. Harrison loses this belt when she decides it’s time to let go of the belt.
3. Which dark horse candidate is most likely to win a UFC title in 2026?
Heck: Valentina Shevchenko
I can see it now, ‘Heck is officially off his rocker. Valentina Shevchenko? She’s already the flyweight champion, so how could she be the dark horse?‘
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Well, because she won’t be the flyweight champion at the end of the year, she’s going to be the 135-pound champion. Here’s the deal: Everything lines up pretty decently for Valentina to go for a second belt. Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes are about to fight. Whoever wins that one, the only interesting fight for either — outside of an immediate rematch — is Valentina Shevchenko. I’d give Shevchenko a pretty good chance to beat Nunes in a third fight at this point in their lives.
Harrison? That’s a bit of a different story. Obviously, it’s a tougher matchup due to the physicality, but Shevchenko just might catch her on the right day. And who knows? If Harrison thumps on Nunes, what else is there for her to accomplish outside of facing the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world? Or, maybe she will have checked off that final box, she can be an ambassador for the UFC, and not have to cut to 135 pounds anymore. I’m taking an outside shot on something crazy, but it can happen for the woman who, in my opinion, was the sport’s overall Fighter of the Year in 2025.
Meshew: Bo Nickal
Initially, I wanted to say Alex Pereira at heavyweight, but that’s no longer a dark horse pick; plenty of people think it’s happening. Then I thought about Mackenzie Dern, but since she’s the champion, she doesn’t count, even though everyone alive is going to pick Zhang Weili to beat her (not me, I still believe). So, with a dearth of other options, I’m going with Bo Nickal.
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Nickal entered the UFC as one of the best prospects in the sport, and while he lived up to that billing early on, he faltered somewhat in 2025. Fortunately, he got back on track with a win at UFC 322, and I envision a big 2026 for him.
Nickal is the two most important things in MMA: incredibly talented and popular with management. Because the UFC likes him, he’s going to get opportunities, and because he’s talented, he can capitalize on those opportunities. Plus, he and current champion Khamzat Chimaev have been quietly building a beef, so it won’t take much for Nickal to get the shove. A convincing win in the spring sets up Nickal competing against a ranked opponent at UFC White House. Say, Israel Adesanya. If Nickal shows out there, the man might be fighting Chimaev for the title by December.
Lee: Alexia Thainara
I’m actually expecting a ton of title changes this year with faces both fresh and familiar at the top. Arman Tsarukyan, Umar Nurmagomedov, Kyoji Horiguchi, Azamat Murzakanov, Michael Morales, Lerone Murphy, and Natalia Silva are all among the names I believe have a great chance to become first-time UFC champions.
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But if we’re talking dark horse candidates, they don’t come much more overlooked than budding strawweight talent Alexia Thainara.
“Burguesinha” made a big splash in 2025, retiring Molly McCann and then winning a decision over Loma Lookboonmee. At 28, Thainara is in her prime and due to her octagon inexperience, flying well under the radar. Look for her to score another win or two in the first half of 2026 to set herself up as a fresh challenger for Zhang Weili. And as indomitable as Zhang is at 115 pounds, the future comes at you fast, in this case in the form of a lethal Brazilian submission specialist.
