Ranking the top 50 players in the Olympic hockey tournament

Neil PaineJan 21, 2026, 07:00 AM ET
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The 2026 Winter Olympics are a celebration of international hockey at its peak again. For the first time since 2014, NHL players will be participating in the event next month in Milan, Italy — and for most of the players headed to the Games, that means they’ll be making their Olympic debuts as well. The tournament’s two weeks will be a career highlight for everyone involved.

And with the league’s top stars returning to the Olympic stage, what better way to judge which players might be the biggest difference-makers in Milan Cortina than to rank them off of their recent production in the NHL?

That’s where adjusted Goals Above Replacement (GAR) comes in, my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats such as Tom Awad’s Goals Versus Threshold and Hockey-Reference’s Point Shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position, reflecting how top hockey talent actually gets paid: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders. Then, the adjusted part prorates every player’s production to an 82-game schedule.

Finally, to turn that into a measure of who has been the most productive in recent NHL seasons, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “Established Level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons. Specifically, we assign a weight of 3 to 2025-26, 2 to 2024-25 and 1 to 2023-24, then divide by 6 to get each player’s overall average.

To keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: No player’s Established Level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR. And in a special modification to make sure inactive and/or injured players — such as Matthew Tkachuk — don’t take too much of a value hit, I also applied the same 75% rule to last season’s output if a player logged too few games (fewer than 12 for skaters or seven for goalies) in 2025-26 to date.

The result is a blend of peak, recent and sustained performance, which tells us who has been the most productive for their NHL teams recently — and perhaps who will carry that over to their national teams as well. With that in mind, here are the top 50 NHL skaters and goaltenders participating in the Olympics, according to their three-year Established Level of recent value:

Note: All stats are as of Jan. 17.

GAR: 2025-26: 39.0 | 2024-25: 24.2 | 2023-24: 31.0
Three-year avg.: O: 26.1 | D: 6.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 32.7

MacKinnon has been on a real tear since the holiday break, averaging 2.1 points per game over his past 10 games, adding to his lead over Connor McDavid on the GAR leaderboard. That’s a place he has occupied before — back when he won MVP in 2023-24 — and it’s not hard to build a case for the Avs’ star as the best player in the world ahead of the Olympics.

Of course, that might not translate to a spot as C1 in the Canadian lineup, but given the rapport he built centering a line with Sidney Crosby and Sam Reinhart at the 4 Nations Face-Off (MacKinnon led all tournament goal scorers with four in four games), there probably won’t be many complaints coming from MacKinnon in Milan Cortina, either.

GAR: 2025-26: 27.7 | 2024-25: 30.1 | 2023-24: 22.9
Three-year avg.: O: 19.8 | D: 7.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 27.7

Joining MacKinnon on Team Canada to continue one of the game’s greatest-ever forward-defenseman combos into the Olympics, Makar ranks so highly here because of his reliably elite production. He’s currently tracking to set a new career high in adjusted points — with 93, the second highest by a defenseman since Paul Coffey in 1994-95 — for the third consecutive season, and he continues to log nearly 25 minutes per game on the blue line for a Colorado team that ranks sixth in fewest expected goals allowed per 60 minutes.

No defenseman has come close to consistently challenging Makar’s performance in recent years.

GAR: 2025-26: 31.2 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 27.4
Three-year avg.: O: 22.3 | D: 4.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.9

McDavid would be neck-and-neck with MacKinnon for No. 1 if he hadn’t missed 15 games last season, leading to a “down” season by his standards. Of course, a down season for McDavid still meant hitting the century mark in adjusted points for a ninth straight season and ranking 14th in the league in GAR. We should all hope our “down years” are so good!

This season, McDavid is back to the business of dominating, tracking for his most adjusted goals, points and GAR since winning MVP — and notching his first 50-goal season — in 2022-23. The fact that Canada has each of the three most productive NHL players at the Olympics speaks to the incredible talent it is sending to Italy next month.

GAR: 2025-26: 25.2 | 2024-25: 27.1 | 2023-24: 23.3
Three-year avg.: O: 20.5 | D: 5.1 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.5

If we’re going to hail Makar for his consistency from the blue line, we have to extend the same praise to Draisaitl, whose metronomic ability to produce a new version of the same great season year after year is nothing short of astounding.

Hes had between 41 and 53 adjusted goals and between 104 and 128 adjusted points every single season from 2018-19 through 2025-26 — a level of output by which you can set your watch. Now making his first Olympic appearance, Draisaitl will anchor Germany’s scoring attack as they try to approach their silver medal heights of 2018.

GAR: 2025-26: 18.2 | 2024-25: 22.2 | 2023-24: 24.9
Three-year avg.: O: 18.3 | D: 2.4 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.7

Over the past three seasons, only Nikita Kucherov, McDavid, MacKinnon and Draisaitl have averaged more points per game than Pastrnak, the Bruins’ offensive engine. While he hasn’t been quite as prolific as usual so far this season — his 96 adjusted points would be the fewest he has posted in a season since 2021-22, and he ranks just 32nd in adjusted GAR — Pastrnak gets boosted here by top-10 GAR showings in each of the previous two seasons.

With Kucherov not participating in the Olympics due to Russia’s IIHF ban, it’s probably fair to call Pastrnak the most dangerous offensive winger in this year’s Games.

David Pastrnak scores power-play goal vs. Kraken

GAR: 2025-26: 10.8 | 2024-25: 31.1 | 2023-24: 28.1
Three-year avg.: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 20.5 | Total: 20.5

It’s been a rough season at the NHL level for Hellebuyck, who missed a month with a knee injury — then has struggled (.887 SV%) since returning — and whose Jets are in the midst of suffering one of the worst year-over-year declines in NHL history, with just a 28% chance to make the playoffs a year after winning the Presidents’ Trophy.

Having said all that, though, few netminders in the game can compete with Hellebuyck’s overall résumé, which included an MVP win and the league’s top GAR finish last season, and that track record still lifts him up here.

7. Zach Werenski, D, United States (CBJ)

GAR: 2025-26: 23.2 | 2024-25: 20.5 | 2023-24: 10.4
Three-year avg.: O: 16.9 | D: 3.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.2

Though he didn’t score a single goal in the tournament, the points leader at last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off was none other than Werenski, one of the standard-bearers for the modern golden age of defensemen.

Werenski made a huge statistical leap last season — improving upon his career high for adjusted points by 50% — and he has continued to improve his individual production this season to near-Makar levels of offensive output, something he’ll potentially bring to a USA D-pairing with his more defensively oriented former teammate Seth Jones.

GAR: 2025-26: 25.7 | 2024-25: 16.8 | 2023-24: 9.9
Three-year avg.: O: 14.9 | D: 5.2 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.1

The Avs’ big 3 of MacKinnon, Makar and Necas has been historically productive together this season — now they’ll all be at the Olympics together, though not all on the same side.

With his teammates playing for Canada, Necas will slot into the Czech lineup with Pastrnak, Tomas Hertl and more NHL talent, and they’ll have a good chance to not only improve upon their ninth-place finish last Olympics, but also perhaps match (or better) their trip to the bronze medal game in 2018. Necas is finally getting his due in the midst of a career year in Colorado, so anything he does here will add another chapter to his breakout story.

GAR: 2025-26: 20.7 | 2024-25: 18.0 | 2023-24: 21.5
Three-year avg.: O: 16.2 | D: 3.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.9

It is a cosmic coincidence that Rantanen is directly next to Necas in the three-year production rankings, as the two will forever be linked by the trade that sent the latter to Carolina and the former to Colorado last January.

For Necas, that’s an impressive placement given his previous production, particularly before the trade, when he had never eclipsed 68 adjusted points in a season. For Rantanen, it’s bit a downgrade — as he’s averaging fewer adjusted GAR this season and last (19.4) than he had in any of the previous four seasons with Colorado — but the Finn remains a dangerous offensive threat on the wing.

He’ll also have good chemistry with his top Olympic linemates (Mikael Granlund, Roope Hintz) from their time in Dallas together.

GAR: 2025-26: 26.4 | 2024-25: 7.5 | 2023-24: 0.0
Three-year avg.: O: 16.8 | D: 3.0 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.8

For all of the established star power on Team Canada, the most buzzed-about player on the roster might just be Celebrini, the 19-year-old phenom making a remarkable MVP bid in just his second NHL season.

After finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting last year, the former No. 1 overall pick has leveled up his game even further this season, ranking 12th in goals, second in assists, third in points and fourth in GAR despite being one of the youngest players in the league.

At the same time, Celebrini’s Sharks have gone from the NHL’s worst record to being in the thick of a playoff race. It’s an amazing story — and as long as NHL players are allowed at the Olympics going forward, Celebrini will be adding chapters to his tale on this stage as well.

Celebrini makes nifty, no-look pass to set up Regenda’s goal

11. Jack Eichel, C, United States (VGK)

GAR: 2025-26: 21.5 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 13.7
Three-year avg.: O: 14.9 | D: 4.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.8

With Jack Hughes and Matthew Tkachuk’s ratings limited here by injuries, Eichel goes into the Olympics as arguably Team USA’s most proven recent producer at forward.

Though he has also missed seven games with a lower-body injury, Eichel is still on pace for new single-season career highs in adjusted points (96) and adjusted GAR (21.5) with the Golden Knights, and his experience at the 4 Nations bookended on a line with the Tkachuk brothers (Brady and Matthew), the trio of whom combined for five goals and 10 points in that tournament, will make Eichel a center of attention in Milan Cortina as well.

12. Kyle Connor, LW, United States (WPG)

GAR: 2025-26: 20.0 | 2024-25: 21.8 | 2023-24: 12.3
Three-year avg.: O: 15.8 | D: 3.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.3

Of all the factors leading to Winnipeg’s huge year-over-year drop-off, Connor’s play isn’t really one of them. He’s tracking for almost identical adjusted scoring numbers — 39 goals and 96 points, versus 41 and 97 a year ago — and his GAR has held steady enough to remain among the top 25 players in the league.

Sometimes Connor has had a tendency to fly under the radar during his career, but he was voted the best LW in the league last season, and it would be nice to see him get more playing time than the 12:27 per game he had in three contests at the 4 Nations a year ago.

GAR: 2025-26: 19.8 | 2024-25: 18.1 | 2023-24: 19.1
Three-year avg.: O: 11.2 | D: 7.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.1

Another Jets player shows up highly in the rankings, with Morrissey continuing to place among the league’s most productive handful of defensemen in spite of Winnipeg’s struggles.

He’s on pace this season for career highs in adjusted goals (16) and GAR (19.8), despite averaging his fewest shots per game since 2018-19. Morrissey brings just about every element there is to the art of playing defenseman, from his puck-moving and scoring to blocking shots and logging time both on the power play and penalty kill. He’ll be one of the anchors of Canada’s blue line.

GAR: 2025-26: 25.4 | 2024-25: 14.3 | 2023-24: 9.3
Three-year avg.: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 19.0 | Total: 19.0

After a good debut with Washington in 2024-25, Thompson has been even better this season, with a save percentage 17% better than league average and the NHL’s best Goals Saved Above Average mark (+16.6).

It’s unclear whether that will be enough to earn Thompson Canada’s starting nod in net, as Jordan Binnington had a tremendous performance in the 4 Nations final a year ago. But if the decision was based on NHL stats between Thompson and Binnington, who has been one of the league’s worst goalies this season, it would be no decision at all.

GAR: 2025-26: 20.0 | 2024-25: 20.0 | 2023-24: 13.4
Three-year avg.: O: 13.8 | D: 5.0 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.9

Hagel has traded passing for goal scoring this season, falling from 55 to 35 adjusted assists, but rising from 35 to 39 adjusted goals while further improving his association with strong puck possession for Tampa Bay when on the ice. The result has been the exact same adjusted GAR production (20.0 both seasons), part of a good run of years for a player reaching his peak.

He was also already a huge part of Canada’s emotional core after fighting Matthew Tkachuk immediately after puck drop in their matchup against Team USA last year.

GAR: 2025-26: 20.1 | 2024-25: 15.4 | 2023-24: 19.5
Three-year avg.: 18.5

GAR: 2025-26: 16.8 | 2024-25: 19.3 | 2023-24: 20.2
Three-year avg.: 18.2

GAR: 2025-26: 15.6 | 2024-25: 18 | 2023-24: 25.1
Three-year avg.: 17.9

19. Jake Guentzel, C, United States (TB)

GAR: 2025-26: 17.4 | 2024-25: 18.6 | 2023-24: 16.8
Three-year avg.: 17.7

GAR: 2025-26: 16.9 | 2024-25: 19.2 | 2023-24: 17.1
Three-year avg.: 17.7

Mitch Marner nets goal for Golden Knights

Mitch Marner tallies goal vs. Predators

GAR: 2025-26: 14.3 | 2024-25: 16.7 | 2023-24: 29.4
Three-year avg.: 17.6

GAR: 2025-26: 17.4 | 2024-25: 24.3 | 2023-24: 4.8
Three-year avg.: 17.6

23. Quinn Hughes, D, United States (MIN)

GAR: 2025-26: 11.7 | 2024-25: 20.6 | 2023-24: 26.5
Three-year avg.: 17.1

GAR: 2025-26: 16.8 | 2024-25: 15.3 | 2023-24: 21.6
Three-year avg.: 17.1

GAR: 2025-26: 17.1 | 2024-25: 17.5 | 2023-24: 11.4
Three-year avg.: 16.3

26. Matt Boldy, LW, United States (MIN)

GAR: 2025-26: 19.9 | 2024-25: 12.3 | 2023-24: 13.1
Three-year avg.: 16.2

27. Tage Thompson, C, United States (BUF)

GAR: 2025-26: 17.4 | 2024-25: 16.3 | 2023-24: 11.2
Three-year avg.: 16

28. Mark Stone, RW, Canada (VGK)

GAR: 2025-26: 19.8 | 2024-25: 13.6 | 2023-24: 8.8
Three-year avg.: 15.9

GAR: 2025-26: 16.8 | 2024-25: 13.7 | 2023-24: 12.2
Three-year avg.: 15

GAR: 2025-26: 10.3 | 2024-25: 19.5 | 2023-24: 18.7
Three-year avg.: 14.7

GAR: 2025-26: 14.6 | 2024-25: 15.8 | 2023-24: 12.7
Three-year avg.: 14.7

GAR: 2025-26: 17.4 | 2024-25: 12.5 | 2023-24: 9.8
Three-year avg.: 14.5

GAR: 2025-26: 15.1 | 2024-25: 16 | 2023-24: 9.7
Three-year avg.: 14.5

34. Dylan Larkin, C, United States (DET)

GAR: 2025-26: 16.2 | 2024-25: 11.8 | 2023-24: 13.9
Three-year avg.: 14.4

35. Tim Stutzle, LW, Germany (OTT)

GAR: 2025-26: 16.5 | 2024-25: 13.7 | 2023-24: 8.9
Three-year avg.: 14.3

36. Tom Wilson, RW, Canada (WSH)

GAR: 2025-26: 17.5 | 2024-25: 14.8 | 2023-24: 3
Three-year avg.: 14.2

GAR: 2025-26: 11.6 | 2024-25: 16.7 | 2023-24: 15.4
Three-year avg.: 13.9

38. Roope Hintz, LW, Finland (DAL)

GAR: 2025-26: 13.3 | 2024-25: 14 | 2023-24: 14.9
Three-year avg.: 13.8

39. Brock Nelson, C, United States (COL)

GAR: 2025-26: 16.6 | 2024-25: 10.1 | 2023-24: 12
Three-year avg.: 13.7

GAR: 2025-26: 18.2 | 2024-25: -1.6 | 2023-24: -0.2
Three-year avg.: 13.6

GAR: 2025-26: 17.4 | 2024-25: 8.5 | 2023-24: 12.1
Three-year avg.: 13.6

GAR: 2025-26: 13.5 | 2024-25: 13.9 | 2023-24: 12.9
Three-year avg.: 13.5

GAR: 2025-26: 12.6 | 2024-25: 17.3 | 2023-24: 8.3
Three-year avg.: 13.4

GAR: 2025-26: 17.6 | 2024-25: -6.5 | 2023-24: 1.4
Three-year avg.: 13.2

GAR: 2025-26: 17.5 | 2024-25: 2.4 | 2023-24: 15.9
Three-year avg.: 13.1

GAR: 2025-26: 9.3 | 2024-25: 17.1 | 2023-24: 15.6
Three-year avg.: 13

GAR: 2025-26: 12.4 | 2024-25: 20.7 | 2023-24: -1.7
Three-year avg.: 12.8

GAR: 2025-26: 15.9 | 2024-25: 13.2 | 2023-24: 2.5
Three-year avg.: 12.8

GAR: 2025-26: 9.7 | 2024-25: 12.7 | 2023-24: 21.3
Three-year avg.: 12.6

GAR: 2025-26: 15.8 | 2024-25: 10.3 | 2023-24: 7.3
Three-year avg.: 12.5

Moritz Seider nets game winner in OT for Red Wings

Moritz Seider sinks a game-winning slap shot to put the Red Wings ahead of the Capitals in overtime.

Other notables

These name-brand players might be surprisingly low on the list, but they reside here mostly due to injuries limiting their playing time — or, in some cases, underperformance limiting their value — in recent seasons.