The NFC South hasn’t had a Super Bowl contender since the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers made back-to-back appearances in the 2015-16 seasons.
The division hasn’t produced a double-digit regular-season winner in three of the past four seasons, with the Panthers limping to a wild-card berth after the Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints in the 2025 regular-season finale, eliminating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from the playoffs.
But after four years of divisional mediocrity, there’s finally reason for hope as the offseason approaches and with it free agency and the 2026 NFL draft.
All four teams have promising rookies, including potential rookie of the year candidates such as Saints quarterback Tyler Shough and Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, while Falcons defensive end James Pearce Jr. and Buccaneers wideout Emeka Egbuka also drew early recognition for that award.
Is there reason for hope that the NFC South will turn things around in 2026?
NFC South beat writers Katherine Terrell (Saints), Jenna Laine (Buccaneers), Marc Raimondi (Falcons) and David Newton (Panthers) answer three pressing questions about the division.
Jump to a question:
Impact rookies | Confidence in QBs
Renewed rivalries
What’s the impact potential rookie superstars are having on elevating the NFC South?
Newton: The Panthers will lean on McMillan to help quarterback Bryce Young rise above a bad first two seasons (he won six games as a starter). McMillan gives Young a legitimate No. 1 receiver that 2024 first-round pick Xavier Legette wasn’t able to be — and might never be. McMillan is a bona fide superstar in the making, following in the footsteps of other elite rookie receivers such as Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans, who each topped 1,000 yards receiving in their first seasons.
Superstars create interest, and there’s no reason to think McMillan, who was the No. 8 overall pick, won’t get better with time and will raise Carolina’s profile even more. As good as he was this season, catching 70 passes for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns, he still disappeared at times and didn’t make the spectacular one-handed catches he was known for in college at Arizona. The most important thing McMillan did was give Young a dependable receiver capable of explosive plays, and there’s expectations he’ll do the same in 2026.
Terrell: Shough and offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. were the two Saints players who made the PWFA All-Rookie team, but most of the 2025 rookie class saw extensive playing time. However, nobody generated more hope from the fanbase than Shough. The 26-year-old led the team to a four-game win streak (including wins against the Buccaneers and Panthers) at the end of the season and provided hope for fans who have been desperate for the team to find its permanent quarterback since Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season.
It’s too early to know if Shough is that guy, but he has certainly done all the right things so far. Shough now has a full offseason to work with Saints coach Kellen Moore, and New Orleans can surround him with more pass catchers in free agency and the draft. If all goes well, that could give the Saints a greater chance to be contenders in 2026.
Laine: Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, the Bucs’ 19th overall pick, wasn’t in the final conversation for rookie of the year, but in Weeks 1-10 of the regular season, he was that guy with 677 receiving yards and six touchdowns in that span. He had to shoulder a considerable load as the lone healthy receiver, and things deteriorated for the offense down the stretch (it was the first time since 2011 that the Bucs didn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver).
Egbuka’s season was reminiscent of Evans’ sophomore season when Tampa Bay’s then No. 1 wideout Vincent Jackson missed six games, the team’s No. 3 WR Louis Murphy went on injured reserve after six games, and Evans struggled commanding all the attention. Like with Evans, there is value in Egbuka in fighting through that experience.
Despite his 5-foot-10 stature, cornerback Jacob Parrish could become a good pro cornerback. He played both nickelback and outside corner because of injuries and finished the season with two interceptions and a fumble recovery, with the pick happening in their must-win Week 18 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Coach Todd Bowles believes he’s the fastest guy on the team and you can see that when he blitzes.
Raimondi: Pearce, the No. 26 overall pick, had the most sacks in the league from a rookie (10.5) since Micah Parsons recorded 13 for the Dallas Cowboys in 2021. Jalon Walker was second among Falcons rookies in sacks (5.5), and safety Xavier Watts led all rookies in interceptions (5). On top of them, cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. was having a very good season before tearing an Achilles in November.
There’s a reason why the Falcons badly wanted to retain defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich despite firing coach Raheem Morris. Atlanta had a franchise-record 57 sacks and has a young defensive core that could be its identity for a long time. With new head coach Kevin Stefanski, who favors a heavy running attack, the new vision for the Falcons could be ground-and-pound and a fearsome defense.
On a scale of 1-10 — with 10 being most confident — where would you rate how are the teams feeling about their quarterback position, including depth/backups?
Newton: 7.5. Young was good enough that general manager Dan Morgan announced at his end-of-season news conference the team will pick up the fifth-year option of the top pick of the 2023 draft. What Morgan couldn’t say was the team feels confident enough in Young to give him a long-term extension before his fourth season. As good as everyone felt about Young’s performance in a 34-31 playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Panthers still lost their final three games and four of their last five. Young didn’t put up solid back-to-back games — or wins — since mid-October. His Total QBR (47.6) still ranked 22nd in the NFL.
One week Young threw for a franchise-record 448 yards, the next he had a season-low 14.2 Total QBR. His inconsistency was concerning.
“Bryce has shown flashes of greatness this year against high-level competition,” Morgan said. “Just as a team we weren’t as consistent as we want to be on a game-to-game basis, but that’s part of what happens with a young team.
“Bryce did a great job this year, and I’m just really excited about moving forward and still developing chemistry with our receivers and just the pieces around him.”
Terrell: 7. There’s a lot of excitement surrounding Shough and what his future could look like after he went 5-4 as a starter following Spencer Rattler’s benching. Saints GM Mickey Loomis gently toned down some of the optimism recently, reminding everyone Shough has yet to play a full season, and is still in development heading into Year 2.
“We’re excited about Tyler, but we have to remember that he hasn’t had 17 starts yet, so we’re going to go into next season with these high expectations and there’s nothing wrong with that, but we also have to temper that by the fact that … he’s a second-year quarterback and he’s had less than full season to start,” Loomis said. “So we got to keep that in mind as we go forward.”
The Saints allowed Jake Haener and Hunter Dekkers to become free agents, so Rattler is currently the only other full-time quarterback on the roster. Loomis said at the end of the season that there had been no discussions at that time about trading Rattler this offseason. With Taysom Hill’s future also up in the air, there could potentially be some shaking up in this room if he retires or Rattler is traded.
Laine: 7. A year ago, this rating would have been even higher, with Mayfield having finished with 41 touchdowns in 2024, the second-most in the league, and having led the Bucs to a 10-win season. And even in the first half of the season in 2025, Mayfield looked like an MVP candidate, in the way he led the offense in a near-record number of last-second comebacks. But he was hampered by left and right shoulder injuries and a knee injury.
Still, Mayfield saw his accuracy drop, and he had uncharacteristic overthrows with his receivers. His performance showed on third down, where his third down off-target percentage went from 13.6% in 2024 and 13.3% in 2023 to 22.4% in 2025. It was less noticeable on other downs. The Bucs’ playcalling took a step backward in 2025 with Josh Grizzard not able to fill the void left by Liam Coen as well, which would have put Mayfield in more favorable down-and-distance situations, but there were moments when Mayfield simply didn’t execute.
Raimondi: 5. There is still plenty of belief among people in the organization about the bright future of Michael Penix Jr. New president of football Matt Ryan is one of those folks and owner Arthur Blank said two weeks ago that he still considers Penix the franchise QB. There’s no doubt that Penix, with his considerable arm talent and poise, has potential. But there are red flags around his injury history.
Penix tore his left ACL in Week 11 and could miss all or part of training camp — and perhaps more. The Falcons might need to be in the market for a bridge quarterback with Kirk Cousins’ days in Atlanta likely numbered due to his 2027 cap number. Penix has needed three ACL surgeries in eight seasons — he tore his right ACL twice in college — which raises real durability concerns.
With Baker Mayfield calling out new coach Kevin Stefanski on social media, is there renewed vigor for the rivalries that exist among the NFC South?
Newton: Mayfield adds that vigor. He has been clear that he didn’t appreciate the way the Panthers discarded him in 2022, taking a swipe at then-Carolina interim coach Steve Wilks this season for his role in his release. Mayfield also was clear he didn’t care for the Saints even though the Bucs needed New Orleans to beat Atlanta in the regular-season finale to make the playoffs. That didn’t happen.
But at least there was some drama and those storylines spice up rivalries, especially in the NFC South. So the Panthers and Bucs, because of the drama, should take on a new element in 2026. The Panthers and Falcons always have been rivals because of their proximity, and there’s extra fire as both teams have gotten better. Just don’t expect Mayfield-type drama out of Young.
Terrell: The Saints and Falcons have had a longstanding disdain for each other, but Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan ruffled feathers recently when he said offensive linemen aren’t athletic and called Buccaneers offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs “fat as hell.” Wirfs responded on social media by saying he lives in Jordan’s head “rent free.” While this isn’t the first back-and-forth between Saints and Buccaneers players (Mayfield said the Saints were dirty players in 2025), it does potentially add excitement to their next meeting in 2026.
Laine: Speaking of Jordan and Wirfs — here’s a reminder that Wirfs is Mayfield’s best friend. On top of all that, Mayfield has been very vocal about his disdain for the Saints.
“It has not exactly been clean play from their part when we play them,” Mayfield said of the Saints this past season, adding, “I do not like them.” One of his biggest grievances with New Orleans was a hit that he got rolled up on by Jordan and David Onyemata in 2023.
But the former walk-on-turned-Heisman has always played with a chip on his shoulder and it’s honestly something that, if he doesn’t have one that week, he finds one. Not making the postseason after two straight division titles for him and for the franchise for the first time since 2019 should be all the motivation they need.
Raimondi: Falcons vs. Saints is one of the best rivalries in the NFL, but rarely are both teams good at the same time, so it hasn’t gotten as much publicity leaguewide. The fanbases have legitimate hate toward each other. When the Saints hosted the Falcons this season, the in-stadium video board poked fun at Falcons controversies, like Ulbrich’s son prank-calling Shedeur Sanders. When the Falcons host the Saints, they don’t even refer to them by name on the scoreboard. They’re just simply “visitors.”
The recent Mayfield-Stefanski rift definitely makes things more interesting between the Falcons and the Bucs, but don’t expect the lowkey coach to feed into that at all.
