UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Stats and Prediction: Record, Age, Height, Walkaround Weight, Reach, & Rankings

The UFC is set to kick off its Paramount era with a star-studded card at UFC 324. Scheduled for January 24 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the stage features exciting fighters. However, one of the biggest spectacles of the night remains the headlining bout between Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje.

As former interim UFC champion Gaethje fights Pimblett for another interim lightweight title bout, it remains one of the most controversial matchups, given Arman Tsarukyan was not considered for the match. With that said, the bout features two opposing fighting styles and a clash between fighters from different generations inside the Octagon.

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Statistical comparison between Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje

Paddy Pimblett enters the cage with an impressive MMA record of 23-3, even though he is fairly new to the UFC scene with a 7-0 pedigree. While the Liverpudlian is significantly younger than Gaethje at 31 years, he is an inch shorter, too, at 5′ 10″ (178 cm). A reach of 73″ (185 cm) would help him hunt for strikes, even though, training out of Next Generation MMA Liverpool, the ‘Baddy’ has a foundation in grappling and BJJ.

By contrast, Justin Gaethje primarily dwells in striking, especially his numbing calf kicks. His extensive MMA record stands at 26-5, with an 8-5 record in the UFC. He is 5′ 11″ (180 cm) tall with a compromising reach of 70″ (178 cm), and an estimated walk-around weight of 170-180 lbs, compared to the upper figures of 200 lbs for Pimblett. At 37, Gaethje is not only seasoned but has proven his grit against the top challengers in the 155-lbs division.

A former D1 wrestler in college, Gaethje commands a hold over both grappling and striking, even though he has a preference for the latter. In fact, with his devastating power strikes and an aggressive fighting style, Gaethje has aced against the likes of Rafael Fiziev, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, and Tony Ferguson. Bearing the distinct advantage of experience, Gaethje has been constantly tested and hardened under pressure.

That is an edge hard to come by. But Pimblett isn’t worried about that. He intends to use his age to his advantage, dictating the pace and narrative of the bout with his explosive energy and cardio. Moreover, with a matching win over Chandler, the ‘Baddy’ is riding a 9-fight win streak and an impressive finishing rate at 7 KOs and 10 submissions. Gaethje, on the other hand, has had inconsistent results recently.

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Despite his years at the top, Gaethje still commands an aggressive, volume striking of 6.59 strikes landed per minute. Each hit is landed with intent, resulting in 20 KO wins for the ‘Highlight’.What flips the statistic on its head is his damage economy at 7.18 strikes absorbed per min. For someone with an equally pathetic takedown average at 0.10 every 15 minutes, Gaethje keeps taking damage as he remains on his feet. While his 68% takedown defense compensates for that, this is truly something Pimblett would like to capitalize on.

The Liverpudlian flashes a better hit-to-absorb ratio at 5.19 strikes for 3.14 absorbed. While his takedown attempts, too, aren’t as frequent, at only 0.96 every 15 minutes, once the fight hits the mats, it inevitably tilts towards Pimblett. He has a knack for finding his opponent’s back or grabbing their neck, arm, or leg for a terrifying submission. With an average fight time of 08:56, Pimblett gets to business quickly.

As a second-degree black belt in jiu-jitsu, Pimblett is more than just hype. However, what sets him apart from Gaethje is that the latter has consistently proven himself against the division’s elite. By contrast, Pimblett is fairly new, with some even suggesting that it’s his popularity that got him the interim title shot. Despite the odds, Pimblett has a real chance of winning the bout if we consider his fighting style.

Stylistic clash between Gaethje and Pimblett

The matchup brings a clash of different fighting styles and different generations. But more than anything, both fighters also bring two insanely different energies, with Gaethje being the embodiment of controlled violence and relentless pressure. Combined with his crushing leg kicks and punches thrown with ill intent, Gaethje will come into the fight quick and heavy, focus on keeping the fight standing, and cause as much early damage as he can.

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Pimblett, on the other hand, is a calmer yet equally threatening force who thrives in unpredictability. While striking isn’t his strong suit, the Liverpudlian is known for his grappling exchanges, transitions, and scrambles, and he capitalizes on defense lapses to hunt for the submission. As he enters the Octagon, he looks forward to surviving the early barrage of shots as he closes the distance to force a grappling match.

If Pimblett can mitigate the first-round threat, his chances of edging the bout increase significantly. The incessant rhythm of the early rounds would’ve worn down on Gaethje, providing ‘Baddy’ the opportunity to hunt for finishes. However, the real question is: How much of this will actually translate under pressure?

Final prediction for UFC 324 interim title fight

While both fighters vie for the interim belt with their own unique strengths, Paddy Pimblett comes in with higher odds, especially given his age advantage and submission pedigree. With betting sites placing Pimblett at -230 while Gaethje sits at +195, the former is a huge favorite, despite being the less experienced fighter. If Gaethje wants to win the bout, he would need to assert his tempo faster. Should the KO not come to fruition, Pimblett becomes a much harder equation to solve. So, who is your favorite to win the LW interim belt? Comment below.

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