The “ZiPS” projections from Dan Szymborski over at FanGraphs are one of baseball’s most tried-and-true projection systems — and the Cubs’ just came out for 2026.
You can see the detailed breakdown here, with full projections for every Cubs player for the upcoming season. Let’s take a look at a few of the numbers that stand out.
Obviously, anything can happen over the course of an MLB season, and players and teams can way outperform or underperform their projections. But they’re still fun, and useful, to take a look at before the season begins.
Here are five of the most interesting takeaways from the Cubs’ 2026 ZiPS projections.
1) They’re headed for another division showdown with the Brewers
Based on all the individual player projections, the Cubs “look like a team with a win total in the low 90s,” according to Szymborski — a similar projection to what they had going into the 2025 season, when ZiPS pegged Chicago as favorites in the National League Central.
The projections were right about the Cubs being a playoff team last year, but the Brewers vastly outperformed their own projections to win the division title. This year, Milwaukee’s projections are stronger. Which means the NL Central race is set up to be an exciting one.
ZiPS sees the Cubs and Brewers as the frontrunners in the Central again in 2026, with both teams having a realistic chance to win the division.
2) Bregman gives Chicago a great infield all around
The Cubs’ signing of Alex Bregman won’t just go a long way toward replacing Kyle Tucker’s lost production, it sets up the Cubs to have a stacked infield at every position in 2026.
ZiPS is projecting all four Chicago infield spots for over three WAR this season, which is pretty strong as far as projections go. Going around the diamond: The Cubs are projected for 3.7 WAR at third base with Bregman, 4.1 WAR at shortstop with Dansby Swanson, 3.9 WAR at second base with Nico Hoerner and 3.5 WAR at first base with Michael Busch (and Tyler Austin).
That’s a very well-rounded infield. There are no weaknesses at any position. The Cubs’ infield stacks up well against the other strongest projected infields around the Major Leagues.
3) PCA’s best comp is Dawson
The ZiPS projections include each player’s closest age-appropriate historical comparisons. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s top comparison is a Cubs icon, Andre Dawson.
That’s cool not just for the Cubs connection, but because Dawson is, well, a Hall of Famer, and when he was around Crow-Armstrong’s age, he was emerging as a superstar.
PCA is entering his age-24 season. When Dawson was at the same point in his career, he too had just broken out with the Expos and was about to become a perennial MVP contender. In Dawson’s age-24 season in 1979, he had 25 home runs, 35 stolen bases, 12 triples and 92 RBIs … sure sounds like a PCA season … and that kicked off a monster five-year run in Montreal. After Crow-Armstrong’s own breakout last year, the Cubs would certainly enjoy a followup season from him in 2026 that reminds them of a young Dawson.
Crow-Armstrong, the projections say, has the highest ceiling on the 2026 Cubs. His 80th percentile projection — that is, what he’d do in a high-end season for him — is 6.1 Wins Above Replacement, which would be an even better season than he had in 2025.
4) Steele could return to form
The Cubs are hoping for a big boost to their rotation once Justin Steele returns from Tommy John surgery, and the ZiPS projections think he can provide it.
ZiPS predicts the 30-year-old southpaw will be just about as productive as basically every other arm in the Chicago rotation — Steele, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton and Edward Cabrera are all projected for similar WAR totals, and all projected to be solid starters.
Steele is projected for a 3.52 ERA, the lowest of any starter on the team, and to strike out close to a batter per inning (8.4 K/9). His 115 ERA+ projection suggests Steele will be 15% better than a league-average pitcher once he returns to the mound. The Cubs would welcome that type of performance from their former ace.
5) Austin and Harvey might be valuable signings
There’ve been a lot of moving parts in Chicago this offseason. Two moves that didn’t seem like huge splashes, but which the projections think might pay nice dividends, are the Cubs’ signings of veteran slugger Tyler Austin and flamethrowing reliever Hunter Harvey.
The Cubs are taking a flier on Austin after he spent the last six seasons in Japan. Austin was a lot more productive in Nippon Professional Baseball than he was the last time he played in MLB, but the ZiPS projections like the 34-year-old to be a productive hitter for Chicago.
Austin is projected by ZiPS for a 125 OPS+ in 2026 (that means he’d be 25% better than an average hitter), which is actually the third-best offensive projection for a Cubs hitter behind Busch (projected for a 138 OPS+) and Seiya Suzuki (134 OPS+). Austin is just ahead of Ian Happ (123 OPS+), PCA (118 OPS+) and Bregman (114 OPS+).
Austin’s role will be much more limited than those other hitters, of course, but if he hits like ZiPS projects, that’s a pretty valuable backup first baseman and platoon DH.
As for Harvey, of the several new relievers the Cubs have brought in, ZiPS especially likes him, as long as he’s healthy. The 31-year-old right-hander was injured for a lot of the 2025 season, but Harvey has big stuff, mainly an upper-90s fastball and upper-80s splitter.
ZiPS projects Harvey for a 2.83 ERA this season, the lowest of any pitcher on Chicago’s staff. Harvey is also projected for 10 strikeouts per nine innings and a team-high 27.6% strikeout rate.
