It’s almost baseball season, which means we are well into projection season. Until we get to see it all play out on the field, we can take a look at how it may go.
Sometimes certain projected stat lines really stand out, and get us thinking about how remarkable the season might be for that player. Looking at FanGraphs Steamer projections, there are players whose numbers would reach the record books.
Here’s a look at 11 players who are projected to do something historic.
Juan Soto: ninth straight .395 OBP, sixth season with 25+ homers and 115+ walks
Soto’s projected .413 on-base percentage would lead the NL, trailing only Aaron Judge’s .417 in MLB. This would mark the ninth season of Soto’s career with at least a .395 on-base percentage. The only AL/NL players to have at least a .395 OBP in each of their first nine or more seasons are Ted Williams (first 17 seasons), Stan Musial (14) and Ferris Fain. As it stands, Soto’s streak of eight straight such seasons to start his career is tied for fourth, with Frank Thomas, Wade Boggs and Charlie Keller. Soto is projected for 34 homers and 117 walks. This would be his sixth season with at least 25 homers and 115 walks. His five such seasons already are tied with Jim Thome and Lou Gehrig for fourth most in a career, behind only Barry Bonds (13 seasons), Babe Ruth (10) and Williams (nine). Soto’s active streak of five consecutive seasons played with those totals is tied for second longest, with Bonds from 2000-04, behind Williams’ six from 1941-42 and 1946-49 (military service 1943-45).
Ohtani was incredible yet again last year, establishing a new 50-50 club with 55 home runs and 62 strikeouts as a pitcher. Now, in 2026, we get a full season of two-way Shotime. He’s projected for 136 strikeouts on the mound and 43 homers at the plate, tied with Judge for the most in MLB. There’s only one player in MLB history to have more than 15 home runs as a hitter and more than 30 strikeouts as a pitcher in a season: Ohtani, in 2018, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23 and ‘25. With his projected 43 home runs and 136 strikeouts on the mound, he would have the third season in history with 40 and 100, joining his output in 2021 (46 home runs, 156 strikeouts) and 2023 (44, 167). No matter how you slice it, he’s one of one.
Paul Skenes: NL leader in ERA for second straight year, NL leader in strikeouts
Skenes just keeps getting better. He’s already just the third pitcher to win both Rookie of the Year and a Cy Young Award by the end of his second season, along with Fernando Valenzuela and Dwight Gooden. He’s projected to lead the NL with a 2.92 ERA, which would be his second consecutive year doing so. At 24 years and 121 days old on the final day of the season, Skenes would be the youngest to lead his league in back-to-back seasons since earned runs became official in both leagues in 1913, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Currently, the youngest pitcher to do so is Clayton Kershaw, who was 24 years and 198 days old on the final day of games in 2012. Kershaw is the only pitcher to lead his league in ERA in consecutive seasons before turning 25. Skenes is also projected to lead the NL in strikeouts, with 237. He would be the fifth youngest to lead his league in both ERA and strikeouts by age at the end of the season, older than only 1985 Gooden (20 years, 324 days), 1940 Bob Feller (21 years, 331 days), 1965 Sam McDowell (23 years, 12 days) and 2011 Kershaw (23 years, 193 days).
Tarik Skubal: AL ERA leader for third straight year, MLB Triple Crown
What will the reigning and back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner do for another encore? Plenty, per his projections. He’s projected to lead MLB with a 2.81 ERA and 242 strikeouts, and tie for the lead in wins with 14, with Garrett Crochet and Cristopher Sánchez. This would be Skubal’s third straight season leading at least the AL in ERA. Just five pitchers have led their league in ERA in three or more consecutive seasons since earned runs became official: 1962-66 Sandy Koufax (five consecutive), 2011-14 Kershaw (four), 1929-32 Lefty Grove (four), 1993-95 Greg Maddux and 1990-92 Roger Clemens. Leading or co-leading in all three categories would give Skubal his second career Triple Crown. The only pitchers with multiple since earned runs became official are Koufax (three), Grover Alexander (three), Walter Johnson (three), Clemens, Grove and Lefty Gomez. And this would be an MLB Triple Crown, leading the Majors in all three, which has been done just three times since the mound was lowered (1969) — by 2020 Shane Bieber, 2006 Johan Santana and 1985 Gooden. And by the way, with Skenes and Skubal both projected to lead their leagues in ERA again: we’ve never seen back-to-back winners in both leagues in the same season.
To nobody’s surprise, Judge is projected for yet another monster year at the plate, tying with Ohtani for the MLB lead in homers. If he can hit at least two more than his projection, it would mark his fifth season with at least 45 home runs. Just seven players in MLB history have at least five such seasons: Ruth (nine 45-HR seasons), Bonds (six), Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire and Harmon Killebrew. He’s also projected to have a 172 wRC+ – meaning he would be 72% better than league average, offensively. This would be Judge’s fifth consecutive season with at least 35 homers and a 170 wRC+. The only players to do that in at least five straight seasons are 1926-32 Ruth (seven), 2000-04 Bonds and 1920-24 Ruth. As it stands, Judge’s four-season streak is the fourth longest.
Schwarber is projected for yet another 40-homer season, hitting that number on the dot. Schwarber has 187 home runs with the Phillies, third most by a player in his first four seasons with a team behind McGwire’s 191 with the Cardinals and Ruth’s 189 with the Yankees. And with his re-signing in Philly this offseason, that’s a list we can continue to track. 40 home runs this season would give him 227 in five years with the Phillies. The only player with that many home runs in his first five years with a team is Ruth, with 235 with the Yankees.
Currently, Steamer doesn’t project any players with at least 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases. But there are three players projected to have at least 30 stolen bases and 25 home runs: Carroll (27 HR, 33 SB), Ramírez (27-30) and Witt (26-31).
If any of them out-hits that home run projection ever so slightly, we’re looking at some 30-30 seasons. That would be a second consecutive for Carroll and third consecutive for Ramírez. Ramírez is just the ninth player to record at least two consecutive 30-30 seasons, joining Witt (2023-24), Ryan Braun (2011-12), Alfonso Soriano (2005-06, 2002-03), Vladimir Guerrero Sr. (2001-02), Barry Bonds (1995-97), Ron Gant (1990-91), Bobby Bonds (1977-78) and Willie Mays (1956-57).
The thing about that list? The only player with three straight is Barry Bonds, which means Ramírez would be the second to do so in baseball history. And Carroll would join the larger list. This would be the fourth 30-30 overall for Ramírez and third for Witt.
The only players in MLB history with at least three 30-30 seasons are Barry Bonds (five), Bobby Bonds (five), Soriano (four), Ramírez and Howard Johnson. Carroll is also projected to lead MLB with 10 triples. That would be his third season with at least 10 triples, 25 home runs and 30 stolen bases, most in MLB history. His two are currently tied with Witt and Mays for the most.
Last year’s home run king is projected for 38 home runs, and before anyone thinks the Big Dumper is being disrespected by not having a 60-homer projection, consider a few things, please. First, these systems are notoriously conservative — a projection is the most likely, not most incredible, outcome, based on numerous simulations. That’s why they play the game. Second, the 38-homer projection for Raleigh is the highest Steamer has had for a catcher in FanGraphs’ archive, which dates to 2012. This would be Raleigh’s fourth season with at least 30 home runs. The only players with at least four 30-homer seasons while primarily playing catcher are Mike Piazza (nine), Johnny Bench and Roy Campanella.
In leading the NL in batting average in 2024, Arraez became the first player to win a batting title in three consecutive seasons with three different teams (2023 Marlins, 2022 Twins). This year, he’s projected to lead MLB with a .305 average. Since he’s a free agent and has yet to sign, we don’t know which league’s batting title he would win. That also means he has a chance to set a record by winning one with a fourth team. As noted above, he’s the only player to win a batting title in three consecutive years with three different teams. But even if we remove the consecutive qualifier, just one other player has won one with three teams at any point, per Elias. The only player other than Arraez with batting titles for three teams is Dan Brouthers (1892 Brooklyn Grooms, 1889 Boston Beaneaters, 1883 Buffalo Bisons, 1882 Bisons).
