After a week off following the loss to Texas Tech, BYU returns to the Marriott Center for a rematch with Utah. BYU beat Utah in a competitive 89-84 game the first go around two weeks ago in Salt Lake City. BYU’s big three all scored 20+ points, while Utah’s guard duo of Terrence Brown and Don McHenry each scored over 20.
The game tips off at 3:30 MT on FOX.
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BYU and Utah by the Numbers
Utah KenPom: 115
NET ranking: 117
Record: 9-10
Best Wins: Ole Miss (N), Cal Baptist (H), TCU
Losses: Cal Poly (H), Grand Canyon (N), Cal (A), MS State (N), Washington (A), Arizona (H), Colorado (A), BYU (H), Texas Tech (A), Kansas State (A)
AP Ranking: N/A
BYU KenPom: 14
NET Ranking: 12
Record: 16-2
AP Ranking: 13
KenPom Prediction: BYU 92, Utah 73 — BYU 96% win probability
Point Spread: BYU -18.5
Point Total: 167.5
Utah Overview
Utah is just 1-5 in Big 12 play, but they look improved from a team that went 8-5 in non-conference play. Guard Terrence Brown scored 25 points versus BYU, and in his last two games put up 26 points vs TCU and 33 points at Kansas State Tuesday. The offense is in the top half of Big 12 teams, but Utah’s defense continues to be one of the weakest of any Power Conference team in college basketball. Utah doesn’t have a rim protector and allows lots of shots in the basket and has the worst two-point percentage defense in the Big 12. Utah was ultra aggressive doubling Dybantsa the first go around, and I expect them to do the same this game. Kennard Davis has really struggled shooting the ball in Big 12 play, and until he proves he can hit shots I expect Utah to send his help defender to the ball when Rob or AJ has it.
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Players to Watch
Terrence Brown, Guard — Listed at 6-foot-3 and 175 pounds, Brown is the clear focal point of Utah’s offense. After averaging 20.6 ppg last year at Fairleigh Dickinson, Brown now leads the Utes with 22.2 ppg and 3.8 assists per game. Brown is a ball dominant guard whose games relies on getting to the paint. He has the second highest usage rate in Big 12 play and the ultimate green light. BYU had some success with 6-foot-9 Khadim Mboup guarding Texas Tech’s dynamic point guard Christian Anderson, and I expect BYU will send Brown more looks this game.
Dom McHenry, Guard — Brown’s backcourt mate is listed at 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds. McHenry averages 18.51points and is more of a three-point shooting threat than Brown. McHenry averages 6.4 3PA per game and shoots 39.7%. He was just 2-8 from three against BYU, and if he gets hot he can keep Utah in the game.
Keanu Dawes, Forward — Utah’s most notable returnee averages 11.8 points and leads the team with 9 rebounds per game. Dawes shoots and incredible 79% on twos and is a strong forward at 6-foot-9 who will occasionally play the five. Dawes hasn’t been a big threat from outside this season, but the game after BYU he shot 4-6 from three at Texas Tech. If he can hit open shots then he will force BYU to change its defensive coverages.
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Prediction
BYU is a huge favorite, but Utah should be feeling confident after keeping the game close in SLC two weeks ago. BYU’s had a whole week off since their late collapse at Texas Tech to stew on that loss. The Cougars should feel motivated to win this one much more comfortably and show they are clearly the better team than Utah.
I am watching three main things in this game. First, does BYU look better defensively? BYU looked noticeably better defensively in non-conference play and at the beginning of Big 12 play, but Utah was able to get to the basket and Texas Tech broke things open. I want to see BYU give Brown and McHenry much more trouble.
Second, I want to see how BYU handles Utah’s aggressive double teams on AJ Dybantsa. AJ didn’t score late against Utah when Utah sent two and three guys at him. While Rob Wright was able to make them pay a handful of times to keep BYU ahead, BYU’s offense was a bit choppy. BYU’s had a week to think about how they handle aggressive defense on AJ; I am curious to see what they look like.
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Third, I want to see if BYU can get Kennard Davis going and what they will do if he’s not hitting shots. BYU needs Davis to hit shots. This team’s highest ceiling is when they can have spacing to give AJ and BYU’s big three room to operate. When Davis is hitting shots that can happen. If he’s not, then BYU may need a philosophy tweak by going more defensive and bigger with Mboup onboard. Davis has shown he can hit shots. I hope the week off was a good reset for him mentally.
Ultimately, I think BYU rides an energized home crowd and string together runs to win fairly comfortably.
Prediction: BYU 91, Utah 73
