UFC 324 betting tips
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Justin Gaethje to beat Paddy Pimblett via KO or TKO – 4/1 Bet365
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Sean O’Malley to beat Song Yadong via decision or technical decison – 21/20 Betway
Paddy Pimblett faces the biggest fight of his burgeoning MMA career this weekend as he takes on Justin Gaethje at UFC 324, with the interim lightweight title on the line in Las Vegas.
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Pimblett, who is unbeaten so far in a UFC career that has seen him rapidly rise up the lightweight rankings, comes into his first title fight off the back of recent wins over the likes of Tony Ferguson and Michael Chandler, with the 31-year-old now ranked fifth in the division ahead of his latest bout.
And the Liverpool-born fighter arrives in Nevada as heavy favourite for this one, with betting sites making him as short as 4/9 to land the first title of his career.
Gaethje, himself a former interim champion in this division, is ranked fourth after recent wins over Rafael Fiziev and Dustin Poirier, though he did lose via KO to Max Holloway in the BMF bout in April 2024.
While he recovered to beat Fiziev again in March of last year, the 37-year-old is a sizeable underdog, with UFC betting sites pricing him at 39/20 to win the belt for a second time.
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While Pimblett and Gaethje are a worthy headline act for the event, there are other intriguing bouts at the T-Mobile Arena, with ‘Sugar’ Sean O’Malley in action against Song Yadong in the co-main event and Derrick Lewis taking on Waldo Cortes-Acosta at heavyweight.
Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett prediction
Paddy Pimblett heads into his first UFC title fight looking to preserve his 7-0 record after his impressive win over Chandler, while Gaethje enters looking to win back the lightweight title he previously held in 2020.
Pimblett comes into the bout as a fairly heavy betting favourite due to his quick rise up the rankings, undefeated record and recent performances, but though Gaethje is edging towards the twilight of his career, he remains one of the UFC’s most dangerous fighters in certain scenarios.
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The American thrives in attritional fights where he can weaponise his power and durability, using a mix of boxing and low kicks to create chaos and deal plenty of damage.
Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett stats
Justin Gaethje
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Knockout win percentage: 73%
Paddy Pimblett
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Knockout win percentage: 26%
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Fighting style: Jiu-Jitsu
He is also by far the more experienced of the two fighters, especially in five-round bouts, and he has a clearer route to damaging Pimblett, especially early on.
While ‘The Baddy’ remains dangerous due to his submission threat, he is untested against this level of boxer and has previously shown himself to be defensively leaky at times, which could allow Gaethje in to use his power strikes and combos.
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‘The Highlight’ has a takedown defence of 68 per cent, which means Pimblett could well get the chances for the submission, though he will inevitably need to take some damage to get into those positions, potentially creating the exact type of fight in which Gaethje has typically thrived in the past.
If Gaethje can wear down the Briton and avoid his submission attempts, he could make his power and experience tell later on.
UFC 324 prediction 1: Justin Gaethje to win via KO or TKO – 4/1 Bet365
Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong prediction
Former bantamweight title holder Sean O’Malley looks to get back on track against Song Yadong this weekend after suffering back-to-back defeats to Merab Dvalishvili.
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The 31-year-old lost to the Georgian in September 2024, relinquishing his title, and then was unsuccessful in trying to win it back, falling to another defeat in June of last year.
It means the American, who held the strap for just over a year, is once again fighting to get back in contention in 2026, with his first fight coming against Chinese fighter Song Yadong.
Yadong, 28, is ranked fifth in the division and enters the fight off the back of a TKO win over Henry Cejudo just under a year ago, though he comes into this latest bout as a big underdog.
Yadong is a dangerous striker who often applies plenty of pressure, though this is something O’Malley has dealt with plenty of times before, and the American should be able to make use of his height and reach advantage on Saturday night.
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If O’Malley can land strikes at range and minimise the damage he takes, he should be able to control the fight and limit his own risk, though he’ll have to be careful against a powerful puncher.
While he has produced KOs before, it might not be the strategy that O’Malley looks for this time around, considering Song’s durability, though he certainly has the skills and patience to keep his opponent at arm’s length while providing enough to win the contest.
And to that end, we think a wager on O’Malley to win via decision is the most sensible bet on this one.
UFC 324 prediction 2: Sean O’Malley to beat Song Yadong via decision or technical decison – 21/20 Betway
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