TORONTO — The Blue Jays were held to a new standard this offseason, challenged to meet all of the expectations of a legitimate World Series contender, not just a team hoping to be invited to the party.
They’ve responded emphatically. It still feels like the Blue Jays are one move away from returning the same caliber of offense after watching Kyle Tucker sign with the Dodgers and Bo Bichette with the Mets, but there’s time, particularly on the trade market.
The Blue Jays’ rotation has taken a step forward, though, which hasn’t been given its proper share in conversations about the 2026 team. They’ve taken this group from good to great, with the potential to be one of the best in baseball.
Let’s simplify this and ask Dylan Cease to replace Chris Bassitt, clean and tidy. Bassitt was excellent for the Blue Jays last season, giving them a 3.96 ERA over 170 1/3 innings, but Cease was given a seven-year, $210 million deal for a reason. The Blue Jays envision Cease taking over the role Kevin Gausman played through 2025 and the postseason, leading the rotation with the ability to pitch deep into games and rack up strikeouts.
Max Scherzer is gone now, too, and while his postseason performance will be how he’s remembered in Toronto, he gave the Blue Jays a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts in the regular season. Don’t forget Bowden Francis and his 6.05 ERA over 14 starts, either. Those combine to represent one full season of poor starting pitching.
Expectations could not possibly be higher for Yesavage, who shot from Single-A to become a star of the Blue Jays’ World Series run in just seven months. Bieber will be another five months removed from Tommy John surgery, and there’s no motivation like a free-agent year. Ponce, who comes back to the big leagues from Korea on a three-year, $30 million deal, is quietly the Blue Jays’ most interesting move of the offseason, taking a big swing on the upside of a reinvented righty.
Even when we leave some room for health, bad days and all of the things that can go wrong over 162 games, the Blue Jays are coming out with a clear net positive here. If Gausman keeps pitching near the level he has and Bieber gives the Blue Jays a full, healthy season, this rotation is enough to drag a team to the postseason itself.
DEPTH MATTERS, AND IT’S BETTER
Whether José Berríos opens the regular season in the rotation is the No. 1 factor here, but even leaving Berríos aside for a moment, the Blue Jays are positioned well to weather some storms.
Eric Lauer, one of 2025’s biggest success stories, is projected to compete for a swingman role in camp and gave the Blue Jays a 3.18 ERA over 104 2/3 innings last season, including 15 starts. Frankly, he saved that rotation from what could have been a much uglier outcome.
Francis will be healthy in camp and could be a very valuable piece of starting depth from Triple-A Buffalo, if the Blue Jays choose, while No. 6 prospect Gage Stanifer could be with the Bisons by midsummer to give the Blue Jays another option. Lefty Ricky Tiedemann (No. 4) is back from Tommy John surgery, too, and while it’s likely he pitches in shorter stints, his long-term potential is still tantalizing.
This is why it’s important to remember names like Turnbull, Ureña and Lucas. The Blue Jays will need six, eight, maybe 10 starters this season, and they’re in better shape to handle that than they were one year ago.
WHAT TO DO WITH BERRÍOS?
The best answer is still the boring one … for now.
Berríos will ramp up in camp like he always has, and if the Blue Jays still have six healthy starters by late March, that’s when any uncomfortable conversations can happen. Berrios was “not happy” with how his season ended, being left off the postseason rosters after a trip to the IL (right elbow inflammation) for the first time in his 10-year career.
The Blue Jays still have time on their side here, meaning time to see if Berríos’ right arm bounces back. They are not at all eager to trade their own prospects to facilitate salary-dump trades, so any deal would need to make baseball sense. Right now, it makes baseball sense to see how Spring Training feels and go from there.
