BYU-Arizona is one of the biggest games in Marriott Center history. Arizona is undefeated and #1 in the nation. BYU is #13 and AJ Dybantsa is coming off a 43-point performance. A win for BYU would give them a signature win as they work to build a resume worthy of a top NCAA Tournament seed. This is ESPN’s first “Big Monday” of the college basketball season. On top of that, Monday is the 15-year anniversary of BYU beating San Diego State in a top 10 matchup and Jimmer dropping 43 points.
The game tips off Monday night at 7pm MT on ESPN.
Advertisement
BYU and Arizona by the Numbers
Arizona KenPom: 1
NET ranking: 1
Record: 20-0
Best Wins: Florida (N), UCLA (N), UConn (A), Auburn (H), Alabama (N), San Diego St (N), TCU (A), UCF (A), West Virginia (H)
Losses: None
AP Ranking: 1
BYU KenPom: 15
NET Ranking: 12
Record: 17-2
AP Ranking: 13
KenPom Prediction: Arizona 82, BYU 80 — BYU 40% win probability
Point Spread: Arizona -3.5
Point Total: 163.5
Arizona Overview
The tape and metrics both illustrate why Arizona is the #1 team in the country. The Wildcats have some great wins, highlighted by a road win at #2 UConn, and are top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Advertisement
Arizona is a balanced team, using an 8-man rotation where their top 7 scorers average between 8.9 and 14.7 ppg. All 8 players average at least 15 minutes per game and no one averages more than 30. Arizona has three All-Conference caliber bigs who the rotate between who are effective on the low block and glass. Arizona’s offense relies on owning the paint and getting to the free throw line. Arizona gets to the line more often than any team in Big 12 play, anchored by their three active bigs. Arizona’s starting guards can get to the rim and are good shot creators.
Teams with bigs that play on the low block often play at slower tempos, but Arizona plays at one of the fastest paces in the Big 12. This should be an up-tempo game on both sides.
If there is one area that is going to trip up Arizona this year, it’s probably the three-point line. Arizona does not rely on the three ball. They shoot the least amount of threes in the Big 12, and are bottom five nationally with only 25% of their field goal attempts coming from distance. For reference, BYU shoots 40% of its field goals from three, which is middle of the pack nationally. Arizona is coming off a 10-23 three-point shooting performance versus West Virginia, its best outside shooting day in Big 12 play, but even after that Arizona is shooting 33.6% from three in Big 12 play (#10 in Big 12). 17.8% of their points in Big 12 play come from three, which is also last in the league.
That hasn’t slowed down Arizona at all. They are winning conference games by an average of 19 points, and their two closest games were 7-point margins. The Wildcats are dominant and look every bit like the top team in the country.
Advertisement
Players to Watch
Koa Peat, Forward — Arizona’s star 6-foot-8 freshman is their starting four man and leading scorer at 14.7 ppg. Peat has made just four threes this season, and does a lot of his damage around the basket. Peat can post up on the low block, but he can also move with the ball on his hands and create action within Arizona’s offense. He’s had two 20+ point games in Big 12 play.
Brayden Burries, Guard — Burries is Arizona’s other big freshman and is right behind Peat with 14.6 ppg. The 6-foot-4 freshman is Arizona’s biggest three-point threat, leading the Wildcats with 4.6 attempts per game and shooting 36%. He is coming off a 4-8 three-point performance versus West Virginia. Burries can create his own offense and adds pop to Arizona’s offensive attack.
Motiejus Krivas, Center — Arizona’s starting center is a load in the middle at 7-foot-2 and 260 pounds. Krivas averages 11.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, and leads the Wildcats with 1.8 blocks per game. He is 38th nationally in offensive rebound percentage and 80th in defensive.
Advertisement
Jaden Bradley, Guard — Arizona’s 6-foot-3 senor point guard averages 13.5 points and leads the team with 4.5 assists and 1.9 steals. Bradley is often the main guy they lean on in crunch to either score or create. Bradley is just 14-33 (42%) from three in 20 games, but he averages just over 5 free throw attempts per game.
Tobe Awaka, Forward/Center — Arizona’s 6-foot-8 sixth man is one of the best rebounds in college basketball. Awaka leads Arizona with 9.8 rebounds per game and is #1 in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Arizona makes a lot of shots, and Awaka cleans up a lot of the ones they do miss. Awaka is a load inside.
Prediction
Arizona has some great wins on the season, but they’ve had a pretty soft start in Big 12 play through 7 games. BYU is the first KenPom top 40 team they have played in conference so far and is one of their three most likely games to lose this season, according to KenPom. Arizona is also coming off a stretch where they played Wednesday, Saturday, and will have to travel to Provo to play two days later. BYU didn’t play at all last week and get to stay home after hosting Utah Saturday.
Advertisement
Arizona does things that give BYU trouble. First, they are obviously just really good. Duh. But they have the personnel to make the paint crowded and force AJ into tough looks. BYU is #1 in Big 12 play in offensive rebound percentage, and Arizona has the bigs to limit BYU’s second chance points.
BYU can win without the three ball, but they’ll need to hit shots this game. I don’t mean that in that in a “well this team is an underdog so they better get hot from three” type of way. BYU needs to hit some shots to spread out Arizona’s defense. I think Arizona’s size and physicality can give AJ problems if they can just crowd the paint. AJ’s ‘spot’ is right at that Big 12 logo when he can rise up over a defender or use that elite footwork to draw fouls or get angles to the basket. If Richie and someone else isn’t hitting shots, Arizona could decrease the effectiveness of that. So while the points from threes are obviously important, I am looking at this from a spacing angle to open up 1-on-1 matchups and better looks at the rim for AJ and Rob. BYU needs Richie to have a game where he hits three or more threes not only to get those points, but also to stretch out Arizona’s defense.
Two x-factors for BYU this game are Khadim Mboup and Abdullah Ahmed. I wouldn’t be surprised if Khadim Mboup starts this game in place of Kennard Davis or gets starter like minutes. He’s been much more effective than Kennard Davis recently, and his size allows AJ to slide down to the three and give BYU the size to better matchup with Arizona. Mboup could matchup on Koa Peat and then switch onto Brayden Burries. BYU will need to be strong on the glass on this one, and Mboup’s motor, size and athleticism seem key for BYU to matchup with Arizona.
I think Brayden Burries is a big factor this game. BYU struggled the last two weeks versus Utah’s guard duo and Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson. Kevin Young has said the toughest teams to defend are ones with dynamic guards. He feels he can better scheme against teams that try to post you up in the paint with their bigs. If BYU can limit Burries’ efficiency and outside shooting, then I think BYU can scheme a defense to pack the pain and slow down Arizona just enough outscore the Wildcats.
Advertisement
The crowd will be electric. And Arizona has to lose at some point, right? However, I think Arizona can slow down BYU just enough and their bigs plus Burries give BYU enough trouble to win a close game.
Prediction: Arizona 84, BYU 82
