Purdue played an overall great game against the Illini but it was to no avail as Keaton Wagler had one of the greatest performances in Mackey Arena history on the way to an 88-82 victory for Illinois. It was an unfortunate loss for a team that has struggled to maintain leads in the last several games that have led to lots of questions from fans and pundits alike about Purdue’s ability to win the B1G and make a run in March. Can the Boilers get back on track? They’ll have a big opportunity to do so Tuesday night against Indiana inside Assembly Hall.
Let’s take a look at the loss to the Illini ‘By the Numbers.’
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46
It was an historic day for Illinois’ star freshman. Keaton Wagler entered the game against Purdue as the Illini’s leading scorer at 15.3ppg and tabbed as a possible lottery draft pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. Wagler elevated himself into rarified air with an amazing 46 point performance that showed the 6’6 guard may just be moving towards B1G player of the year and first team All-American.
Mackey Arena is typically a place where the best players can often struggle to get going. Steph Curry visited and found it difficult to do much of anything with Chris Kramer and the Paint Crew hounding him all game long. What kind of history did Wagler make? He now owns the highest single game scoring record for any opponent inside Mackey Arena and the third highest in any venue in Purdue’s entire program history.
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Simply put: This is what other teams felt like when Carsen Edwards would show up and hit everything once he crossed halfcourt.
27 & 12
Wagler’s performance was an all-time great one but Braden Smith had himself a day as well. The senior guard started off a little slow but when the Boilers needed someone to match Wagler’s scoring, he showed why he is likely to be a first team All American and win the Bob Cousy Award again. Smith would go for 27 points and 12 assists on just 1 turnover while playing 37 minutes and those three minutes were largely because he sprained his ankle in the second half.
Smith has continued to be stellar but simply isn’t getting the help he needs from teammates, specifically his fellow seniors in TKR and Loyer. Purdue still has the ability to attain their goals but it won’t happen with those two not playing up to what they should be as seniors.
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52.6%
Omer Mayer came to Purdue as a player who was known to have a bit of scorers touch to his game that may be above his age. He flashed that for Israel at FIBA and seemingly in the preseason but the season started off rather rough from behind the arc. That hasn’t deterred Mayer up to this point as he has played really good defense and seemingly continued to contribute in almost any other way.
In the first 12 games, Mayer struggled from nearly everywhere on the floor. The freshman shot just 30/77 (39%) from the floor and 11/41 (26.8%) from behind the arc. He isn’t expected to be a primary scorer but being someone who can clearly generate his own shot and showing an ability to catch and shoot lifts Purdue’s offense. In the last eight games though, Mayer has turned it around.
Mayer has seemingly found his form, shooting 10/19 from behind the arc for 52.6% while averaging 1.1 turnovers. That’s a big key for a player who will definitely shoulder a bigger scoring load next season. That need was seen somewhat after Smith went to the bench with an ankle sprain and Mayer responded with 5 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist in short span where he was needed more. He is actually scoring less but is much more efficient.
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14
It isn’t often that Purdue over the last 40 years is utterly dominated on the glass like it was against the Illini. A 14 rebound advantage of 33-19 is one thing but giving up 13 offensive rebounds that led to an 18-2 advantage in second chance points was devastating. Purdue had less turnovers, converted those into points (more on that later), and shot 57% from the field. Allowing the Illini to break their spirit on the glass was the one things that it couldn’t afford to let happen with Wagler’s performance.
That minus fourteen rebounding mark is the worst performance for Purdue since they did the same against Illinois on January 21st, 2020.
20
Purdue once again showed their ability in handling the ball in a high level manner by only turning the ball over for a program tying record (for a second time this season) of just three times. On the flipside, the Illini turned it over just ten times but Purdue converted those into 20 points. Purdue was +17 in that regard and it helped offset the rebounding and second chance scoring advantage the Illini had.
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25.9%
Nobody is going to question the impact that Fletcher Loyer can have on a basketball game. He is rarely in the wrong position on defense and always seems to be in the right place on offense. The issue over the last several games is that where he brings the most value on the offensive end as a dead-eye shooter and offensive mis-match just isn’t happening.
Over the last nine games, Loyer is shooting just 14/54 for 25.9% from behind the arc. In fact, this is probably the most difficult stretch of shooting Loyer has endured in his career at Purdue. The frustrating thing is that Loyer is playing at a high level everywhere else for the Boilers but his ability to make threes is what gives him the most value. He isn’t good enough to be a scorer inside the arc alone and he isn’t good enough defensively to warrant that being his primary role either.
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For Purdue to reach the goals it has for itself this season, it needs Loyer to figure out the shooting woes. In the struggles he has had in previous seasons, it was followed up with a long stretch of elite shooting, There is no reason that can’t happen again and it needs to happen if Purdue wants to win the B1G title.
5
Against the Illini, Purdue was very secure with the ball. In fact, it was the 5th consecutive game that Purdue kept their turnovers in single digits. That is the type of ball security CMP has known this team is capable of having with the level of ball handlers it has in Smith, Loyer, Cox, Mayer, Harris, and Benter. In fact, this isn’t even the longest stretch of this level of security Purdue has had recently.
Last season from the game against UCLA all the way to the first round matchup against High Point, Purdue went six straight games of turnovers in single digits. The Boilers did have a five game stretch in the 2018-2019 and 2011-2012 but their ability to limit turnovers appears to be the best of the CMP era this season.
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6
Since the start of the Keady-era, Purdue has rarely ever gotten through a season where it hasn’t suffered back to back losses. That has occurred in just 6 total seasons in that forty six year span and shows how difficult the grind of a B1G schedule truly can be. Those seasons were 2023-2024, 2016-2017, 1993-1994, 1989-1990, 1987-1988, and 1986-1987.
On the flipside of that, there have been some rough seasons that Purdue fans have had to endure as well. In the 2005-2006 season, the Boilers were just a bad basketball team that finished 9-19 and lost fifteen of their last eighteen games. Now, what about the worst losing streak for a Boiler squad that made the NCAA tourney? That would go to the 1990-1991 team that lost five straight games and made the tourney as a 7-seed but got beat in the first round by 10th seeded Temple.
Losses happen in long seasons and losing back to back games is more common than you may realize. Even really good teams in Purdue history have lost back to back games but that isn’t necessarily cause for worry. The key will be how the Boilers continue to use what they learn through the season to find ways to improve and that’s something this group and this coaching staff have shown a high ability to do.
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1007
With his nine points scored, Oscar Cluff surpassed the 1,000 point mark with 1,007 points for his career that has spanned three seasons at Washington State, South Dakota State, and now Purdue. Cluff isn’t likely to break his single season scoring record of 528 and he isn’t likely to break any other personal records, but he has been exactly what the Boilers needed (not withstanding the apparent scheme issue that came to a head against UCLA and Illinois).
943
With his twelve assists, Braden Smith now has 943 career assists. That places him twelfth overall just behind Doug Gottleib’s 947. Smith is now just 133 assists behind Bobby Hurley’s record with 11 games left. To break the record, here is where he needs to be:
11 games (no post season games): 12.1 assists per game
13 games (2 post season games): 10.23 assists per game
14 games (3 post season games): 9.5 assists per game
15 games (4 post season games): 8.9 assists per game
18 games (7 post season games): 7.4 assists per game
20 games (9 post season games-BTT Final & National Championship): 6.65 assists per game
