WEST LAFAYETTE — After two consecutive Purdue basketball losses highlighted by 3-pointers surrendered, a third perimeter challenge looms.
Tuesday’s game at Indiana marks a stretch of four road games out of five. It also marks Purdue’s first clash in a while with a Hoosiers team using the 3-point shot as a weapon again. They’ve put up 30 or more 3s in four of their last five games, including last week’s 15-for-35 shelling at Rutgers.
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Indiana does not appear to have a Keaton Wagler hidden on its roster. His once-in-a-generation performance, complete with step-back bombs over defenders of all size and shape, does not actually speak to Purdue’s bigger problem of late.
As IU trends up behind the arc, the Boiler defense has trended in the opposite direction.
At one point, the home drubbing at the hands of Iowa State on Dec. 6 seemed like a defensive turning point. Purdue held four straight opponents – Minnesota, Marquette, Auburn and Kent State – to 60 or fewer points.
None shot better than 28% from 3. All committed double-digit turnovers. The Boilers either dominated the defensive boards or thrived on the offensive glass at a rate higher than its opponent.
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Since the restart of Big Ten play, though, six of nine opponents have outshot their 3-point percentage in all other conference games. Focusing on the last five opponents, Penn State, Iowa, UCLA and Illinois combined to hit 46.3% behind the arc. (USC, a poor 3-point shooting team, lived down to that reputation in the fifth game.)
More to the point, opposing players 6-foot-7 or taller are shooting 51.7% over the past five games.
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That does not include the 6-6 Wagler. It does, though, include teammates such as Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic and Ben Humrichous. It includes Tyler Bilodeau, who was 3 of 7 from 3 before hitting the game-winner for UCLA. It includes Iowa’s Tavion Banks (3-3) and Tate Sage (2-4) and Penn State’s Eli Rice (3-4) and Josh Reed (3-4).
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If you cobble together enough small sample sizes, does it constitute a trend? While you ponder that question, know that 52.7% mark is actually dragged down by USC’s Chad Baker-Mazara shooting 1 of 6. Opponents 6-8 and taller are shooting 63.8% from 3 over the last five games.
Lengthy shooters give many defenses problems. Purdue had that element in its favor last season with Camden Heide (39.2%). It anticipates Raleigh Burgess providing a version of it when he’s back from redshirt next season.
In two postgame news conferences last week and another interview session in between, coach Matt Painter described in detail the personnel issues at play.
Purdue added ultimate height back to its lineup to correct last season’s rebounding deficiencies. Oscar Cluff or Daniel Jacobsen will be on the floor with Trey Kaufman-Renn the majority of the game. That’s an ideal lineup for interior scoring, rebounding and post defense – especially rim protection. It’s often a sub-optimal lineup for switching onto shooters.
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When opponents capitalize on those matchups, it puts more onus on Purdue to win inside. UCLA built an 8-1 edge in blocked shots. Illinois outscored 18-2 on second-chance points.
The Boilers also need more consistently solid defensive performances from the rest of the roster. They set the standard by which this season should be judged at championship potential. Their adjusted defensive efficiency score on KenPom is almost identical to last season’s final score: 99.2 to 99.3.
At the same time, most opponents do not have a Donovan Dent-Bilodeau combination. Most will not put as many lengthy shooters on the floor as Illinois. Fewer still will operate with anywhere near the instinct and execution of the Illini.
That showed up on the four 3s Illinois hit in Saturday’s closing minutes. Wagler made none of them, but his reads and awareness directly contributed to a couple.
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“They’re the No. 1 offense in the country for a reason,” Painter said. “That doesn’t start with elite talent as much as it starts with elite decision-making. They have very good decision-making. They have very good coaches as far as their offensive schemes and what they do.
“And they got the best of us today.”
Purdue also extended its winning streak to nine straight while those defensive 3-point numbers drifted south. Reed is a 32.2% career 3-point shooter on 177 attempts. Banks made 2 of 22 at Drake last season. Sometimes playing the percentages costs you in the short run while the plan succeeds as a whole.
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The first chance to push back on the narrative comes up quickly.
Indiana ranks second among Big Ten teams in 3-point shooting during conference games. Leading the way are 6-7 Nick Dorn (45%) and 6-6 Lamar Wilkerson (42%).
Purdue, by the way, ranks 14th in opposing 3-point percentage in Big Ten play.
“You jump right back into that beehive,” Painter said. “You’ve got to go guard and rebound – it’s the same thing. You want to answer the ball and compete, but it’s going to be tough. They’re a good team.”
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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Purdue vs Indiana basketball preview: 3-point shooting to test defense
