Xavier wasn’t supposed to be able to hang with either of their last two opponents. Creighton had run them off their own home floor a month ago, and St. John’s is two games clear of anyone not named UConn in the Big East. Both teams figured to make short work of the Musketeers. The fact that Xavier was in both games until the horn was emblematic of the fight they’ve shown under Coach Richard Pitino in his first season at Xavier. The fact that they lost both games despite their Herculean efforts is emblematic of the season as a whole.
Now they’re heading to scenic New Jersey to take on Seton Hall. The Pirates hit the ground running this season, knocking off NC State on a neutral court and having a one-possession loss to USC the next day and their only blemish heading into Big East play. A 4-1 start in the conference surged them to 14-2 on the season. They’re 14-6 now, having dropped their last four, most recently to a DePaul team that anyone in the league should be embarrassed to lose to.
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The Pirates enter this game trying to arrest an alarming skid and keep their bubble hopes alive. You’re delusional at this point if you see a realistic way back to an at-large bid for Xavier; the Muskies are just hoping to see process turn into results before the stretch run. While the implications are vastly different for each team, this is a game they’d both dearly love to get.
Team fingerprint
Two things leap off the KenPom page about Seton Hall on offense: they aren’t very good (161st in AdjO) and they don’t shoot threes at all. They’re 361st in the nation in 3P rate, taking just 27.7% of their shots from deep. You’d think this is because they’re bad from three – and you’d be right (30.9%) – but they’re also shooting an abysmal 47.5% from inside the arc. With a 47.2% EFG%, they’re 321st in the nation; they’re just a bad shooting team. They’re just a touch above national average in free throw rate and ball security, but where they shine is on the glass. They’re 33rd in the nation in OReb%, grabbing nearly 37% of their own misses. God knows they get enough practice.
Their defense is excellent. They’re 10th in the nation in AdjD, and it pivots on two areas. The first is forcing turnovers, where they’re 11th with a 21.7% TO rate. The other is forcing bad shots, where their 10th-ranked defensive EFG% is generated by holding opponents to 45% inside the arc and 31% behind it. They’re 1st in the nation in block rate and 3rd in steal percentage. As you might have guessed for a defense that aggressive, they foul a lot, sitting 345th in free throw rate. They can also be had on the glass a bit, but all tolled this is a formidable crew.
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Players
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Starting matchups |
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|---|---|---|
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Adam Clark |
Point Guard |
All Wright |
|
Junior |
Class |
Sophomore |
|
5’10”, 165 |
Measurements |
6’3″, 190 |
|
10.3/2.7/4.6 |
Game line |
7.4/1.9/2.2 |
|
41.1/23.8/68.6 |
Shooting line |
45.5/45.6/86.4 |
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Clark filled it up at Merrimack last season on his way to First Team All-MAAC honors, but even without a usage rate in the mid-30s, his efficiency has dropped off this season. He is still distributing pretty well, but he’s shooting just 38% from the field in conference play. He does rank 3rd in the conference in steals, so he’s very important to the Pirates’ strategy of generating offense off turnovers. |
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|
Mike Williams |
Shooting Guard |
Malik Messina-Moore |
|
Junior |
Class |
Senior |
|
6’3″, 185 |
Measurements |
6’5″, 200 |
|
8.5/2.8/1.8 |
Game line |
11.2/2.9/4.1 |
|
36.8/31.9/78.6 |
Shooting line |
39.1/34.7/76.3 |
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Williams had a very solid freshman campaign at LSU, averaging 7.2/2.2/1.2 and shooting 37% from deep, but wasn’t able to build on it last season as his shooting lines decreased across the board. He had a decent start this season, but has fallen off in conference play, sporting a .312/.226/.667 shooting line. He’s also not generating turnovers like he did in the non conference schedule, having just 6 steals in 9 Big East games so far and none in the past 3. |
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|
AJ Staton-McCray |
Small Forward |
Tre Carroll |
|
Senior |
Class |
Senior |
|
6’4″, 200 |
Measurements |
6’8″, 235 |
|
11.8/3.4/1.4 |
Game line |
18/5.6/2.8 |
|
42.2/34.8/91.1 |
Shooting line |
50.7/34.5/63.4 |
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Stanton-McCray is best known for being the victim of an unimaginably bad call when his clean chasedown block of Nick Timberlake was incorrectly called a foul, robbing his Samford squad of what would have been a memorable first round upset in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Anyway, if Seton Hall has a go-to guy it’s him although his efficiency and production has dropped off as teams have keyed on him more and more. He’s a solid defender and one of two consistent threats the Pirates have to shoot the three, so if they are to snap their skid he will be a big part of it. |
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|
Elijah Fisher |
Power Forward |
Filip Borovicanin |
|
Senior |
Class |
Senior |
|
6’6″, 220 |
Measurements |
6’9″, 227 |
|
7.3/3/0.9 |
Game line |
10.1/8.1/4.7 |
|
42.6/20/66.7 |
Shooting line |
44.8/33.3/85 |
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|
Fisher was on the DePaul squad that has recently made news for shaving points, and seems likely to have been the player whose effort the conspirators took exception to. Now he’s on a team where things like “not trying to lose” and “throwing the ball to your teammates instead of directly out of bounds after you get a defensive rebound” are appreciated. However, he comes into this game in a massive slump, having scored 11 points over the last 6 games and shooting 3-16 from the floor in that span. At his best, he’s a decent interior scorer who can generate turnovers on defense, but he’s not been at his best lately. |
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|
Stephon Payne |
Center |
Jovan Milicevic |
|
Senior |
Class |
Sophomore |
|
6’9″, 235 |
Measurements |
6’10”, 241 |
|
7.1/7.5/0.7 |
Game line |
11.5/4/1.3 |
|
55.7/0/55.9 |
Shooting line |
44.2/42.6/69 |
|
|
If you’re going to pressure the ball like Seton Hall does, you need someone in the middle to make opponents think twice about trying to beat you inside and Payne fits that bill. He is tops in the Big East in block rate and somehow couples that with also leading the conference in defensive rebounding rate. He can get himself into foul trouble and has fouled out twice in the last four games (rookie numbers, get on Jovan’s level, scrub). On the offensive end, he is a bit of an afterthought in terms of getting him his touches unless you count missed shots, because he also leads the conference in offensive rebounding rate. |
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Reserves
The Hall operates with a fairly deep bench in order to maintain their pressure and also because they foul a lot. The biggest piece off the bench is their second leading scorer TJ Simpkins who has been the best perimeter shooter for the Pirates this season. He is the only player on the roster shooting better than 30% from three on more than 1 attempt per game in Big East play, although he’s converting at just 32% from deep and 36% overall. Trey Parker will spell Clark off the bench and is a very good free throw shooter, but struggles with turning the ball over, sporting a A:TO of 16:14 in conference play. Forward Josh Rivera missed all of preseason and the first three games of the season due to injury, but has been improving and increasing his role as the season has gone on. He has cracked 20 minutes 4 times since the turn of the year after not doing so a single time prior to that point and his 56% mark from the floor in conference play is the best on the team by a distance. Najai “Baby Shaq” Hines has been a force of nature at times in the low post for Seton Hall this season. His block rate of 16.5% would lead the conference if he were a statistical qualifier. The reason he isn’t is partially due to missing time in December with an injury, but mostly due to his propensity for fouling. When he can keep himself on the floor he is incredibly effective, although that is weighed down by his struggles from the line, much like the real Shaq.
Three questions
-Who will control the pace? Xavier is in the top 50 in the nation in pace; Seton Hall is some 230 places behind them. This is down almost entirely to Seton Hall’s defense and Xavier’s offense. The Muskies try to play super fast, and the Hall tries to drag the game into the mud. We’ve all seen too many instances of Xavier hitting a drought when they can’t get out and go; a similar issue tonight will be fatal (in basketball terms).
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-Can the Muskies muster some inside scoring? After being heavily reliant on the three early in the year, Xavier is third in the conference in percentage of points inside the arc and the same metric from beyond it. They’re still getting their shots blocked at a comical rate though, and literally nobody does that better than Seton Hall. The Pirates also boast a strong perimeter defense. They don’t have to play like the Cousy Celtics, but a consistent punch in the paint is vital unless they hit a complete blinder from deep.
-Can Tre Carroll stay hot? The man has 89 points in the last three games, coming largely thanks to 30 made two-point field goals. He has been crafty in the painted area, but Seton Hall has help defenders lurking to earn their national-best block rate. It’s not exactly splitting the atom to say that the result of the battle between Maui and Seton Hall’s rim protectors could decide the game.
Three keys
-Convert from the line. Seton Hall fouls a ton; that’s a settled fact. Unfortunately, Xavier has been snakebit in scoring from the line, ranking 346th in the nation in percentage of points on free throws. The Muskies went 12-19 from the line in a one-point loss to Georgia, 10-14 in a one-point loss to Marquette, and 7-8 in a one-point loss to Creighton. Leaving aside for the moment the question of how unfriendly a whistle they’ve gotten this year, X needs to make hay with the chances they’re sure to get against Seton Hall or this one could be another missed opportunity.
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-Defend the glass. I’ve lost my source for information regarding what percent of a team’s scoring is on second chances (RIP hoop dash math dot com), but I do know that Seton Hall can’t shoot for crap and is excellent at offensive rebounding. X is second in the league in DReb%; Seton Hall is first in OReb%. Something has to give tonight.
-Stay out of foul trouble. Xavier has a little depth in the guard slots, with Roddie Anderson III and Isaiah Walker able to provide real contributions off the bench, but the reserve options in the paint are dire. Pape N’Diaye and Anthony Robinson are clearly not circle of trust guys for Richard Pitino, and even if they were, their fouls per 40 numbers of 7.4 and 8.8 (respectively) keep them from establishing any sort of rhythm. The drop off after Carroll, Borovicanin, and Milicevic is steep, and X has experienced it lately with the latter two of that trio seemingly always working around foul trouble. If they can play clean tonight, that’s a huge step in the right direction for our boys.
