Pittsburgh Panthers 9-12 (2-6) at Clemson Tigers 17-4 (7-1)
When: Saturday 1/31, 12:00pm Eastern
TV: ACC Network
Where: Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, SC
Temperature Check on Clemson
Clemson finds themselves ranked 28th in KenPom and holds sole possession of 2nd place in the ACC at 7-1 in conference play with NC State and Virginia nipping at their heels at 6-2. The Tigers started conference play 6-0 before stumbling at home against NC State. The Wolfpack are a high-ceiling team that are tough to beat when their shots are falling as they were that night. They’re even tougher when you make countless unforced errors turning the ball over and missing free throws. That’s what Clemson did in that loss, but they bounced back last Saturday with a road win — their 12th straight — in Atlanta against Georgia Tech.
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Now they’ve had this week off as they rest before a home game against Pittsburgh. Aside from Zac Foster’s season-ending knee injury, they’re relatively healthy and enter this contest playing well.
The First Matchup
Although Georgia Tech is Clemson’s assigned permanent rival, the Tigers are also playing Pittsburgh twice instead of playing Virginia at all. That’s certainly not a complaint. We’ll take the far easier opponent without gripe, but it is another ACC oddity. Since Clemson has already played and beat the Panthers in Pittsburgh, we can begin this preview with a look back.
On January 3rd, Clemson picked up their second ACC win of the season by beating the Panthers in a snowy Pittsburgh, PA, 73-68. Pitt’s season was only just beginning to teeter on disaster at that point, and they put up quite the fight. Pitt led by one at halftime, but it was Jestin Porter who delivered the first 20+ point performance of the season for the Tigers. He finished with 21 points including three second half 3-pointers.
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For Pitt, it was Demarco Minor who led the way with 17 points. He hasn’t topped 13 since and only scored three points in Tuesday’s OT win over Wake Forest. Typically, guard Brandin Cummings and 6-foot-10 center Cameron Cohren lead the way, but both had foul trouble with Cummings limited to 15 minutes and Corhen fouling out.
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What’s New with the Pittsburgh Panthers
Since the home loss to Clemson, the Panthers have gone 2-4 with a bad loss to Boston College. That dropped them to dead last in my most recent ACC Power Rankings (see below):
Pittsburgh’s defense is not a strength. They rank 128th in defensive efficiency in part because they don’t do a great job generating turnovers. The Tigers have done a good job limiting turnovers this season rankings 36th in offensive turnover percentage, but that number is trending the wrong direction. In conference play, they’re just 7th in the ACC in the metric and they have double-digit turnovers in four straight games.
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Pittsburgh strength is rebounding. Cameron Cohren is especially strong on the offensive glass, but the Tigers limited him to just one offensive rebound in the first matchup and a repeat would be ideal. Forcing turnovers on defense while getting second chances on offense is the clearest path for Pittsburgh to pull the upset.
Big Picture
Through 21 games, it is clear Coach Brownell managed to put together a solid roster and had them playing like a true team with “grit.” They’re the better team and at this point the better program as they’ve beaten Pitt 14 times in a row. Pitt made the tournament 10 straight seasons from 2002-2011 and has 7 Sweet 16 appearances in their history so it is a little hard to believe, but Pitt is in a bad place these days and Clemson should handle business. In addition to a win, limiting turnovers to fewer to 10 would be an encouraging sign.
The Tigers need to avoid showing rust early from their week off. If they bring the energy needed to avoid a rebounding deficit and the sharpness needed to get their turnovers in check, they should win this one without too much worry. Those are big “ifs,” but KenPom projects a 12-point Clemson win, and I will choose to believe in this team’s maturity.
KenPom: Clemson 74, Pittsburgh 62
Kantor: Clemson 73, Pittsburgh 66
