Penn State basketball will hit the road tonight to take on an equally struggling Northwestern team. The Nittany Lions are the only remaining Big Ten team without a win in conference play.
How to Watch
Who: Northwestern Wildcats
NET Ranking (PSU): 70 (129)
Kenpom Ranking (PSU): 62 (125)
When: Thursday, January 29
Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL
Time: 8pm
TV: Peacock
Radio: Penn State Sports Network
Line: Northwestern -8.5 (ESPNBet)
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Opponent Preview
Northwestern is just 1-8 in conference play, with its lone win coming on January 21 against USC. Efficiency metrics still like the Wildcats, with Kenpom clocking them in at No. 62 as of this morning.
While Nick Martinelli (23.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) is the unquestioned leader, Arrinton Page (12.1 PPG) and Jayden Reid (10.9 PPG) are also solid scoring threats for the Wildcats. This is not a great shooting team, with Northwestern ranking No. 156 in effective field goal percentage. Their numbers are even worse from the outside, ranking No. 309 in three-point field goal percentage. This could be just what the doctor ordered for a Penn State defense that cannot stop anything this season.
Defensively, Northwestern is average, ranking No. 92 on Kenpom’s defensive efficiency metric. The line of demarcation is 70 points for this Wildcats team. In all eight of their Big Ten losses, Northwestern gave up at least 70 points, and they held USC to 68 in their only conference win.
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What to Watch For
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Rebounding- With Northwestern not great at shooting the ball, rebounding will be of utmost importance, especially given the Wildcats are a below-average rebounding team themselves.
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Turnover Margin- Northwestern turns the ball over on just 12.5% of its possessions, the second-lowest rate in the NCAA. Penn State turns it over just 14.1% of the time, good for 21st in the NCAA. It may sound cliché, but the team that forces more turnovers is very likely to win this game.
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Morale- As the winless start to conference play has grown to nine games, the losses have seemed to compound in recent games. Effort was better against Ohio State, but I want to see this team continue to play for pride and hopefully bring home a win tonight.
Prediction
This is a road game and Northwestern is the better team statistically, which more often than not is a recipe for a loss. Penn State has played several close games in conference play against the top teams in the league, but the floor has fallen out since the loss to Maryland. This should be close, but Northwestern makes enough big plays against a weak Penn State defense to seal the deal.
Northwestern 73, Penn State 68
