MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC 325’s main event featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes.
Alexander Volkanovski UFC 325 preview
Alexander Volkanovski, UFC 276 press conference
Staple info:
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Record: 27-4 MMA, 14-3 UFC
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Height: 5’6″ Age: 37 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
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Camp: Freestyle MMA/Bangtao Muay Thai (Aus.)
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Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
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Risk management: Excellent
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Supplemental info:
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2x UFC featherweight champion
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Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
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National wrestling gold medalist
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Consistent pace and pressure
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Excellent feints and footwork
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Accurate shot selection and counters
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^ Educated lead hand and hard leg kicks
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^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
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Good ground striking from topside
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+/- 2-1 in career rematches
Diego Lopes UFC 325 preview
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Staple info:
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Record: 27-7 MMA, 6-2 UFC
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Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 72.5″
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Camp: Brazilian Warriors/Legacy MMA (Mexico)
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Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Supplemental info:
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Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
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Multiple grappling accolades
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Aggressive pace and pressure
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^ Accurate left hook and uppercut returns
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Excellent transitional grappler
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^ Dynamic submission game
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^ Attacks from high to low
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+/- 0-0 in career rematches
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 point of interest: Striking the second time around
The rematches don’t stop when it comes to what the world’s leader in MMA offers us. This week, a rematch no one asked for will headline UFC 325 – the promotion’s second event of the year.
Although Diego Lopes, who is coming off an impressive win over Jean Silva, deserves zero blame for this booking, there’s no denying that he came up short against Alexander Volkanovski less than a year ago.
To Lopes’ credit, he kept the fight fairly competitive with Volkanovski en route to scoring some big moments for himself along the way.
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As seen in Volkanovski’s fight with Ilia Topuria, the current champion can sometimes get a bit upright when forced to retreat backward (as opposed to Volkanovski’s usual step-offs/shifts to an outside angle). Lopes was able to catch and briefly stun Volkanovski in the second and fourth frames.
Unfortunately for Lopes, those moments didn’t happen nearly enough for him – largely due ot his lack of footwork and cage-cutting. One of the better positional strikers MMA has to offer, Volkanovski has put on many masterclasses in the octagon that involve circling off of his jab.
This basic approach allows Volkanovski to nullify certain weapons and perceived range advantages, while simultaneously dictating the overall pace and setting traps along the way. And outside of the brief instances mentioned above, Volkanovski had a fairly clear idea of how he wanted to exit – typically weaving out to one angle or another as opposed to reaching for the collar ties that got him in trouble against Topuria.
Lopes, who has quietly become more of an effective counter-puncher down the stretch of his career, works well off of collar ties, which is likely another reason why Volkanovski only played inside the clinch when he had positive positions along the fence (where Volkanovski did well from). For that reason, I suspect that both fighters, for different reasons, might look to create more of these situations the second time around.
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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 point of interest: Potential grappling threats
As alluded to in the previous section, I would not be shocked to see at least one party elect to grapple more this time around.
Although Volkanovski may still want to avoid collar tie exchanges in the open, the two-time featherweight kingpin traditionally conducts himself well in clinch space.
Even if Volkanovski isn’t able to hit his patented inside or outside trip takedowns, the Australian native knows how to make hay off brief, stance-debasing moments.
And when Volkanovski can establish top position, he embraces his honey badger-like sensibilities by staking claims to positions through punishing strikes and rides. Nevertheless, Volkanovski will still need to be on his best behaviour opposite a submission artist like Lopes.
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Grappling since the age of 5, Lopes is a lifelong martial artist who moves on the floor like second nature.
An absolute nightmare in transitions, Lopes flows through the position and submission index faster than any bogus AI program could replicate. Whether combining armbar and triangle threats or snatching up legs on an exit, Lopes is great about keeping a high-to-low theme to his attacks.
More recently, Lopes has been smartly working to shore up his wrestling game, working stateside with OSU wrestlers like Jake Hamiti. That said, outwrestling, much less out-grappling Volkanovski, has proven to be a difficult task for even the lightweight and welterweight elite inside the octagon.
Even when Volkanski is taken down or put in a rare, precarious position, the 37-year-old has proven superb recoverability, submission defense and decision-making that make him difficult to control for long.
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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the fighter who won the first time around, listing Volkanovski -150 and Lopes +118 via FanDuel.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 prediction, pick
Although you could argue that this line should be both set and inflated wider, you have to respect Lopes’ skills and the trap-like nature of this booking.
As I always say, rematches seldom go the same way in MMA. Despite proudly reminding people of the fact when predicting Petr Yan’s masterclass over Merab Dvalishvili in their rematch late last year, I could find myself on the wrong end of my words this weekend.
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I may have been in the camp of scoring the first fight clearly for Volkanovski, 49-46, but I believe that we’re ultimately seeing the champion in his post-prime. Still, as fighters like Jose Aldo and Dominick Cruz have proven, post-prime is not exactly a death knell for the greats of our sport.
Lopes both creating and capitalizing on big moments in this rematch wouldn’t shock me, but I can’t go against the clear fundamental shortcomings that the challenger showed the first time around (in a fight we didn’t see all that long ago). However, if rematches are seldom meant to go the same exact same way in MMA, then I’ll take a flier on Volkanovski finding a finish this time around via reminding the masses of the Khabib Nurmagomedov-like sensibilities that he originally came into the octagon with.
The official pick is for Volkanovski to force a stoppage via strikes in the mid-to-late rounds of this fight.
Prediction: Volkanovski inside the distance
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 start time, how to watch
As the main event, Volkanovski and Lopes are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:10 p.m. ET. The fight airs on Paramount+.
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This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 pick, odds, time: UFC 325
