Given Nebraska lost to Michigan by just three on Tuesday, while being down two key players, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the only thing that changed for the two teams in today’s bracket is the auto bid designation. But there’s still plenty to be decided in what is currently an 11-bid Big Ten. (Welcome, Indiana!) That’s because the dominance of the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and ACC has not only led to the conferences claiming 32 of the 37 at-large bids available, it’s also created some clustering in certain parts of the bracket.
Four Big Ten teams (Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Illinois) take up spots four through seven on the seed list. Add in Purdue, and there are five Big Ten squads ranked on the top 4 seed lines. Meanwhile, there are five league members on seed lines 10 and 11! The Big 12, meanwhile, has six teams in the top 16, with a trio of 3 seeds (Houston, Iowa State, and BYU) and a pair of 4s (Kansas and Texas Tech).
Advertisement
The SEC has only a pair of 4 seeds in Vanderbilt and Florida, but two others (Alabama and Arkansas) are on seed line 5, while a trio of squads are on seed lines 8 and 9.
Plug all of these clusters into a bracket, and you really start hoping teams will start to differentiate themselves better in February and March. There could be a whole lot of familiar matchups as the Tournament plays out, if things remain the way they are as January ends.
NOTE: Changes since Tuesday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
(16) LIU (NEC)
Advertisement
(8) Saint Mary’s
▼(9) Kentucky
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
▲(5) Tennessee
(12) Liberty (CUSA)
(4) Texas Tech
▼(13) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
▼(6) North Carolina
(11) TCU/Ohio State
▼(3) Purdue
(14) Winthrop (Big South)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) UCF
▲(10) San Diego State (MW)
▲(2) Illinois
(15) Portland State (Big Sky)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
—/★(16) Merrimack (MAAC)/Vermont (AE)
(8) Villanova
▲(9) NC State
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Arkansas
★(12) South Florida (AC)
(4) Vanderbilt
(13) Troy (Sun Belt)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) SMU
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
Advertisement
(3) BYU
(14) UT Arlington (WAC)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(7) Louisville
(10) Wisconsin
(2) Gonzaga (WCC)
★(15) Austin Peay (ASUN)
(2) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) UConn (Big East)
(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)/Maryland-Eastern Shore (MEAC)
(8) Texas A&M (SEC)
(9) Iowa
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▼(5) Virginia
(12) Yale (Ivy)
▲(4) Florida
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(6) St. John’s
▼(11) USC
(3) Iowa State
(14) ETSU (SoCon)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Clemson
(10) New Mexico
▲(2) Michigan State
(15) Navy (Patriot)
(3) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) UT Martin (OVC)
Advertisement
▼(8) Georgia
(9) Utah State
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Alabama
★(12) Belmont (MVC)
(4) Kansas
★(13) UC Irvine (Big West)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(6) Saint Louis (A 10)
▼/★(11) Virginia Tech/Indiana
▼(3) Houston
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) Auburn
▲(10) UCLA
(2) Nebraska
(15) Wright State (Summit)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Wisconsin, UCLA, New Mexico, USC
Last Four IN: Virginia Tech, TCU, Indiana, Ohio State
First Four OUT: Miami (Fla.), Santa Clara, Texas, VCU
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Tulsa, George Mason, California
ARRIVALS (6): Austin Peay (ASUN), Belmont (MVC), Indiana, South Florida (AC), UC Irvine (Big West), Vermont (AE)
Advertisement
DEPARTURES: Florida Atlantic (AC), Hawai’i (Big West), Lipscomb (ASUN), Murray State (MVC), Texas, UMBC (AE)
Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (11): Michigan (auto bid), Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, UCLA, USC, Indiana (First Four), Ohio State (First Four)
SEC (9): Vanderbilt, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M (auto bid), Kentucky
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, SMU, Clemson, Louisville, NC State, Virginia Tech (First Four)
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech, UCF, TCU (First Four)
Advertisement
Big East (3): UConn (auto bid), St. John’s, Villanova
MW (3): Utah State, San Diego State (auto bid), New Mexico
WCC (2): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s
24 one-bid conferences
Games to Watch
All times are p.m. Eastern unless noted. Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance.
Friday
Michigan at Michigan State, 8 (Fox)
Providence at Villanova, 7 (FS1)
Dayton at Saint Louis, 8 (CBSSN)
Kent State at Akron, 6 (CBSSN)
Loyola Chicago at VCU, 9 (ESPN2)
Boise State at Grand Canyon, 9 (FS1)
UNLV at Nevada, 10 (CBSSN)
Dartmouth at Yale, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Wright State at Milwaukee, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Sacred Heart at Quinnipiac, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Mount St. Mary’s at Saint Peter’s, 8 (ESPNU)
Advertisement
Friday’s highlight is obviously the showdown in East Lansing pitting the last No. 1 seed and the second 2 seed. They’ll meet again in Ann Arbor to close out the regular season. Who knows? We may even get a third meeting here in Chicago during Selection Week.
Saturday
Duke at Virginia Tech, 12 (ESPN)
Texas Tech at UCF, 12 (ESPN2)
Texas A&M at Georgia, 1 (SECN)
San Diego State at Utah State, 1 (CBS)
Cincinnati at Houston, 12 (Fox)
Pitt at Clemson, 12 (ACCN)
Marquette at Seton Hall, 12 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Georgetown at Butler, 12 (TNT/TruTV)
There are plenty of opportunities for bubble and mid-bracket teams to grab helpful victories in the early window—with the games in Blacksburg, Orlando, Athens, and Houston sticking out. Clemson, Seton Hall, and Butler all face trap games, while Utah State can get itself back into a tie for first in the Mountain West by beating SDSU at home.
Advertisement
SMU at Louisville, 2 (ESPN)
Ohio State at Wisconsin, 2 (Fox)
Texas at Oklahoma, 2 (ESPN2)
North Carolina at Georgia Tech, 2 (ACCN)
Arizona at Arizona State, 2 (TNT/TruTV)
Virginia at Boston College, 1:30 (CW)
Cal Baptist at UT Arlington, 3 (ESPN+ ($))
ETSU at Wofford, 2 (CBSSN)
UNC Asheville at Winthrop, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
High Point at Longwood, 3 (ESPN+ ($))
Lipscomb at North Florida, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
LIU at Central Connecticut State, 2 (ESPNU)
The games in Madison and Norman are straight bubble shootouts, even if the Sooners’ will need to go on a winning streak to get back within consideration. UNC, Arizona, and Virginia all hit the road for games of varying difficulty. McCamish Pavilion will be sold out for the Heels’ visit, though I suspect that will make it feel like a home game given the Yellow Jackets’ season so far. As for the Wildcats, you can bet the Sun Devils will be prepared to hand their archrivals their first loss of the season.
BYU at Kansas, 4:30 (ESPN)
Indiana at UCLA, 5 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Baylor at West Virginia, 4 (ESPN2)
NC State at Wake Forest, 3:45 (CW)
California at Miami (Fla.), 4 (ACCN)
Mississippi State at Missouri, 3:30 (SECN)
Northern Illinois at Miami (Ohio), 3:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Hawai’i at Long Beach State, 4 (Spectrum Sports Hawai’i/ESPN+ ($))
App State at Troy, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Montana State at Portland State, 5 (ESPN+ ($))
UT Martin at Western Illinois, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
NJIT at Vermont, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Loyola Maryland at Navy, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Maryland-Eastern Shore at Delaware State, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Bethune-Cookman at Alabama State, 4 (SWAC TV)
The bubble takes center stage in this window—besides the BYU-Kansas showdown that will be key for seeding and yet another Miami (Ohio) attempt to remain perfect.
Kentucky at Arkansas, 6:30 (ESPN)
Stanford at Florida State, 6 (ACCN)
Rutgers at USC, 7 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
George Mason at St. Bonaventure, 6:30 (USA)
Harvard at Yale, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
North Dakota State at South Dakota, 6 (Midco Sports/Summit League Network ($))
Southeastern Louisiana at Stephen F. Austin, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
McNeese at Lamar, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Advertisement
Who knows which Kentucky team will make the trip to Fayetteville for the early evening window’s showcase game. Like Cal’s visit to Coral Gables in the preceding window, Stanford cannot afford to get swept by the ACC’s Florida pair. USC also can’t let Rutgers hang around like Michigan State did in the midweek window.
McNeese heads to SFA on Monday night, so neither team will want to look ahead to that Southland showdown tonight.
Auburn at Tennessee, 8:30 (ESPN)
Vanderbilt at Mississippi, 8:30 (SECN)
UConn at Creighton, 8 (Fox)
Washington at Northwestern, 8 (BTN)
Murray State at Belmont, 8 (CBSSN)
Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
South Florida at Temple, 8 (ESPN2)
Auburn, winners of four straight, heads to Knoxville with the aim of climbing further up the seed list. Vandy and UConn both face tricky road games, Washington will aim to rebound from Thursday night’s loss to Illinois in Evanston, and the Valley race takes center stage in Nashville. Note that the Bruins have won five in a row, while the Racers have dropped three straight to turn the MVC standings around a bit. The pair will meet again in Kentucky on February 15th.
Advertisement
Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga, 10:30 (ESPN)
New Mexico at San José State, 10 (CBSSN)
The Gaels and Bulldogs will close out two consecutive months—the rematch is in Moraga on February 28th.
Sunday
Illinois at Nebraska, 4 (FS1)
Alabama at Florida, 1 (ABC)
Purdue at Maryland, 1 (CBS)
Iowa State at Kansas State, 2 (Fox)
Iowa at Oregon, 8 (FS1)
TCU at Colorado, 2 (TNT/TruTV)
Wichita State at Tulsa, 2 (ESPNU)
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Wright State at Green Bay, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Sacred Heart at Merrimack, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
Quinnipiac at Fairfield, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Saint Peter’s at Rider, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Advertisement
With no football on offer, there’s an unusual schedule for the bye week. There’s an SEC game in Gainesville, something relatively common when I was a student, but not so much today. There’s also another huge game in the Big Ten, as the top 2 seed hosts the third-ranked one.
Monday
Kansas at Texas Tech, 9 (ESPN)
Syracuse at North Carolina, 7 (ESPN)
McNeese at Stephen F. Austin, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Bethune-Cookman at Alabama A&M, 8 (SWAC TV)
Maryland-Eastern Shore at North Carolina Central, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Idaho State at Portland State, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
The second Big Monday game, pitting a pair of 4 seeds, should be much better than the first, unless Syracuse can channel its performances against Houston and Tennessee in Chapel Hill. That’s something that has not looked likely over the past three weeks. Plus, there’s that huge Southland showdown in Nacogdoches.
Given that there are plenty of matchups between teams that are currently clustered up on the seed list, we should have some more clarity on Tuesday—the first bracket of February 2026.
