UFC 325 predictions: Alexander Volkanovski or Diego Lopes — who wins Saturday’s rematch in Sydney?

Back-to-back numbered UFC events have historically been a rarity. But that was before the Paramount era flipped the script, baby.

With that said, the more things change, the more they stay the same. UFC 325 returns to Australia this Saturday for a welcome Alexander Volkanovski featherweight title defense. Less welcome, however, is his challenger, Diego Lopes, who Volkanovski last fought less than a year ago to reclaim the 145-pound throne.

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It’s too late to complain much about who deserved the title shot. All we know for certain, as Volkanovski aims to keep his improbable second title reign alive, is that Lopes always delivers high-octane efforts.

Speaking of high-octane, the evening’s co-main event between lightweight contenders Dan Hooker and Benoit Saint Denis has violence written all over it — for as long as it lasts.

UFC 325 is a clear love letter to Oceania MMA, so much so that it leans a little too top-heavy to warrant a $79.99 price tag. Thankfully, pay-per-view is a thing of the past.

👑 UFC 325 lineup Crown grade: C-. 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

145 pounds: Alexander Volkanovski (-145) vs. Diego Lopes (+120)

Before the year started, the Uncrowned staff made their bold predictions for 2026. One of mine involved Volkanovski retiring. Now, the 37-year-old champion is adamant he’s not close to retirement, but despite my lack of belief in his claims, I don’t expect Lopes to be the one who sends “Volk” on his merry way.

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Lopes is impossible not to love, and I expect a more chaotic effort from him this time around. The window between their first fight and this rematch is just too small for major adjustments to be made, other than Lopes throwing more caution to the wind.

April’s first meeting was essentially a vintage bull-and-matador effort from Volkanovski, who dictated the action with his jab and counters against his aggressive counterpart. Lopes found moments of success when he made the fight its dirtiest, however Volkanovski is a historic adapter. Disregard the unique circumstances of the Islam Makhachev fights, and we’ve seen the Aussie legend deliver masterful performances in multiple preparations for the same opponent. Max Holloway says hello.

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This is no disrespect to Lopes, but downloading more of his data will be significantly easier for Volkanovski than it was against Holloway. Even in that trilogy, though, Volkanovski delivered arguably the best performance of his career in the third bout.

As long as Volkanovski avoids a war or any wild scrambles, this rematch should largely look the same as their first fight.

Pick: Volkanovski

155 pounds: Dan Hooker (+275) vs. Benoît Saint Denis (-350)

At this point, we know what to expect from Hooker: Striking violence aplenty, as long as the fight stays standing.

Saint Denis hasn’t shied away from seeking submissions, as seen in two of his past three wins. Surely, a chaotic brawl may be too enticing for Saint Denis to lean on his ground game, but that doesn’t mean he can’t succeed, because he will. Hooker, while as dangerous and game as ever, has been extremely hittable throughout his resurgent run at lightweight.

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Hooker may be tougher than a $2 steak, but he’s been stopped by strikes in the past, and “BSD” carries absolute cannons for fists. It’s one of those matchups where Hooker would be best suited not walking through the same fire he’s done many times before. At the same time, an argument can be made that Saint Denis’ chin is still suspect, thanks to Dustin Poirier.

Outside of his Arman Tsarukyan matchup, it hasn’t been smart doubting Hooker on his recent run, but the difference in power and overall tread on the tires ultimately gives Saint Denis the edge.

Pick: Saint Denis

155 pounds: Rafael Fiziev (-105) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (+125)

Low-key banger alert.

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Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy looks to be a high-speed striking showcase. Fiziev brings elite kickboxing, sharp counters and proven experience against top-tier lightweights, while Ruffy remains a dangerous unknown. He’s flashy, methodical in his aggression, and hungry to rebound after an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Saint Denis. Ruffy’s confidence and pressure could test Fiziev early, especially if the veteran starts slow.

The question is whether Ruffy’s chaos can break through Fiziev’s polish before the fight settles into a technical rhythm. If Fiziev establishes range, timing and calf kicks, his accuracy and composure will begin to take over.

This matchmaking is admittedly somewhat of a head-scratcher after Ruffy’s loss to Saint Denis in September felt like an exposing performance, at least too much of one to send him straight back into the deep waters with a lightweight shark like Fiziev.

Pick: Fiziev

265 pounds: Tai Tuivasa (+300) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-400)

Listen, we haven’t seen enough of Tallison Teixeira yet for me to have any faith in his heavyweight potential. Regardless, there’s absolutely zero reason Tai Tuivasa should be trusted at this juncture.

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“Back against the wall” mentality is something I’ve always factored in for fighters in a position like Tuivasa’s, but eventually things reach a point where you’ve already gone through that wall. At five straight losses, that’s where he’s at. At heavyweight, that’s an even worse spot to be.

Tuivasa has simply appeared checked out in recent years, and has been finished in four of his five losses over that stretch. Against Teixeira, he’s literally fighting an uphill battle, giving up a massive length advantage to the 6-foot-8 Brazilian.

Despite his lone defeat to Derrick Lewis in his last fight, Teixeira has scored impressive knockouts in all but one of his eight wins. Here comes another.

Pick: Teixeira

155 pounds: Quillan Salkilld (-900) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+675)

Quillan Salkilld is being set up for success after breaking out in 2025.

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This matchup with Jamie Mullarkey is controlled chaos versus pure chaos. Salkilld is the more disciplined striker, with enough pop to punish mistakes. Mullarkey remains the definition of forward-only violence. Oftentimes, it’s to his detriment, but it’s thrillingly reckless nonetheless. Mullarkey can overwhelm early if he gets momentum, but he’s also tailor-made to get clipped by someone who stays patient.

I didn’t love Salkilld’s wildly telegraphed takedown attempts in his last fight, though they ultimately didn’t matter — as evidenced by his highlight-reel head kick knockout. If Salkilld keeps his composure and picks his spots instead of getting dragged into a brawl, his cleaner fundamentals should carry him.

Pick: Salkilld

Preliminary Notes

While I was pleased to see my Uncrowned comrades are also high on Cam Rowston after his impressive UFC debut, I wasn’t pleased to see nearly all of them copied me with their wildcard pick. Cody Brundage could very easily play spoiler in that matchup, but Rowston has all the makings to climb the middleweight ladder.

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Other than that, Oban Elliott looks to regain some lost hype and momentum.

Quick picks

• Billy Elekana (-235) def. Junior Tafa (+190)

• Cam Rowston (-375) def. Cody Brundage (+300)

• Torrez Finney (+125) def. Jacob Malkoun (-150)

• Oban Elliott (+110) def. Jonathan Micallef (-135)

• Yi Zha (-210) def. Kaan Ofli (+170)

• Dom Mar Fan (-150) def. Kim Sang-wook (+125)

• Sebastian Szalay (-135) def. Keiichiro Nakamura (+110)

• Sulangrangbo (-275) def. Lawrence Lui (+220)

• Aaron Tau (+110) def. Namsrai Batbayar (-135)