Super Bowl 60 Predictions, Free Picks, and Expert Best Bets

Eleven years after Malcolm Butler’s goal-line interception shook the sporting world, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots are set to converge on Levi’s Stadium for a historic Super Bowl rematch.

Our team of betting analysts has been tracking both teams closely and is ready to deliver their Super Bowl predictions, along with the NFL picks they’re making themselves.

From Rashid Shaheed’s breakout potential to schematic edges that oddsmakers are overlooking, our NFL experts are here to help you find the best value in a very crowded market.

Jason Logan’s expert Super Bowl picks

Covers’ resident NFL expert and the host of The Sharp 600, Jason Logan blends traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis to provide audiences with the most thorough insights possible.

Jason’s Super Bowl analysis

Solving the Super Bowl riddle is never an easy task for football bettors, but I believe this is Seattle’s game to lose. We’ve seen New England skate by teams with strong defenses but shortcomings on offense. The Seahawks are not only a top-tier defense but have an offense that can put up points, making them the toughest two-way challenge the Patriots have faced all season.

That’s not to write off New England by any means. The Patriots also have a solid stop unit, especially when it comes to stuffing the run. New England will need help in the form of takeaways to keep this close. In order to generate those game-changing plays, I see the Pats selling out to stop the Seattle run game and putting all the “Big Game” pressure on the arm of Sam Darnold. How he performs on the Super Bowl stage will go a long way in determining the winner.

Jason’s best bets

After the New England Patriots’ pop-gun run to the Big Game — in which their offense struggled against quality defenses — they once again find themselves against a top-tier stop unit. The Patriots have posted just 12 and 13 first downs in their last two postseason games while averaging 3.2 and 3.9 yards per play in those contests. Quarterback Drake Maye has been limited in his production while absorbing 10 total sacks.

Seattle’s defense is tops in the land with a vaunted pass rush that ranked among the best in the NFL in pressure rate, sacks, QB hits, and hurries despite blitzing at one of the lowest rates. On top of that, the Seahawks offense has been humming in the tournament, torching the 49ers for 41 points and hanging 31 points on the Rams. New England hasn’t faced a team this complete… well, all season.

Rashid Shaheed o23.5 receiving yards – Analysis

Since being traded to Seattle, Rashid Shaheed has faced only zone-heavy defenses (eight opponents rank between 1st and 15th in zone usage). He’s much better vs. man coverage, which the Patriots use at the 6th highest rate.

New England also allows an average of 42.7 ypg to WR3. Shaheed’s biggest day of the season came when the Saints played the Giants (7th in man), with 114 yards.

Hunter Henry o37.5 receiving yards – Analysis

Drake Maye is in a tough spot against this Seattle pass rush that can generate pressure with just a four-man rush. Hunter Henry is Maye’s pressure release in short yardage and also his best receiving option versus zone coverage, which Seattle runs at the second-highest rate.

Henry can also pick up yards after the catch, and the Seahawks have allowed the sixth most YAC. Seattle is also giving up the fifth most targets and receptions to tight ends, panning out to the sixth most yards allowed to TEs in the NFL. Projections for Henry sit as high as 46 yards from the Patriots’ tight end in Super Bowl LX.

George Holani Over 1.5 receptions – Analysis

The Patriots’ run stop is healthy and shutting the door on opponent running backs in the playoffs. Mike Vrabel’s game plan will be to eliminate the Seahawks ground game and put the Super Bowl on Sam Darnold, attacking the Seahawks QB with blitzes.

With Zach Charbonnet out, George Holani has stepped up as the RB2/third-down back and drew four targets for three receptions and 27 yards in the NFC title game. He now has two weeks to work within the offense and get used to the increased involvement. New England has also allowed the seventh most targets and fifth most receptions to RBs this season.

Joe Osborne’s expert Super Bowl picks

A familiar face to bettors thanks to his countless video appearances, Joe Osborne is an industry veteran who loves the entertainment aspect of the sports betting industry. His opinions are always backed by data, and he enjoys digging into the numbers and coming up with interesting trends and nuggets to share with sports bettors.

Joe’s Super Bowl analysis

The Patriots’ relatively soft path to the Super Bowl is a fair criticism, and it looms large here. Seattle is undoubtedly the more complete team, with clear advantages on both sides of the ball. Sam Darnold seems ready for this moment after showing up big in the NFC title game.

New England should generate some offense, but defensively, they won’t keep pace. I like Seattle to cover, the game to go Over, and the Seahawks to win 30–20.

Joe’s best bets

The Seahawks’ offense is firing on all cylinders, scoring 41 and 31 points in their two playoff games. While their defense has received plenty of praise, they remain vulnerable, as the Rams demonstrated by putting up 479 yards of offense.

For the Patriots, winter weather and inconsistent quarterback play by opponents have kept their playoff games low-scoring, but that changes here. With Sam Darnold in form and normal conditions expected in San Francisco, the offense should be much more productive.

Kenneth Walker III Over 21.5 receiving yards – Analysis

Kenneth Walker III has been going off in the receiving yards department in the Seahawks’ most important stretch of the season. Not only has he topped this mark in four of his last five games, but he’s also proving to have a high ceiling as he’s averaging 36.8 receiving yards in this five-game span.

With Zach Charbonnet out for the season, Walker will have a heavy workload vs. a Patriots team that allowed the sixth most receptions to running backs in the regular season.

Drake Maye o218.5 passing yards – Analysis

This is a very modest number given Drake Maye‘s body of work. He surpassed this mark in 14 of 17 regular-season games, averaging 258.4 yards per contest, so don’t let his playoff numbers throw you off. With no winter weather in San Francisco, Maye should resemble the MVP-level passer he was all season.

Seattle’s defense has also allowed big games recently, including 374 and 457 yards to Stafford and 277 to Brock Purdy. The Patriots’ schedule often gets criticized, but Seattle’s recent quarterback competition hasn’t exactly been elite.

Josh Inglis’ expert Super Bowl picks

Covers’ NFL TD guru, Josh Inglis has been picking winners all season with his popular NFL Anytime Touchdown Predictions & Parlay column. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually, and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports.

Josh’s Super Bowl analysis

I’m not as down on the Patriots as many, but this will be a much tougher defensive test than what they’ve faced so far in the playoffs.

What I do like about New England is its offense. They haven’t had the benefit of good conditions, and Drake Maye has shown flashes of a young Matthew Stafford.

The Rams just went into Seattle and torched the Seahawks for 374 passing yards and three touchdowns in front of the 12s. A neutral site and good weather should push two-way scoring.

Josh’s best bets

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 50.5 rushing yards – Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off a 25-carry game and has been the clear focal point of the offense since Week 18. Over that four-game stretch, he has topped 320 rushing yards and cleared this number in every game, including matchups against three elite defenses.

The workload is all his, with Henderson reduced to an afterthought, as Stevenson handled 90% of the RB opportunities against the Broncos. Even if Seattle sells out to stop the run, Stevenson has already proven he can move the pile versus the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos.

Neil Parker’s expert Super Bowl picks

An avid football fan, Neil Parker has been in the sports betting space for 16 years. He takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds.

Neil’s Super Bowl analysis

Seattle finished with the third-highest, single-season DVOA dating back to the 2018 campaign and then hung 41 and 31 points on the board in their first two playoff games while ranking first in EPA per play.

The Seahawks also send out the No. 1 stop unit by defensive DVOA. It’s a tough spot for New England.

Neil’s best bets

The Pats haven’t faced an offense as complete as the Seahawks, and they’ve had their own offensive struggles the past three weeks, with just five touchdowns while ranking 10th of the 14 postseason teams in EPA per play.

I’m happy to lay up to -5.5 with Seattle.

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Rohit Ponnaiya’s expert Super Bowl picks

Rohit Ponnaiya combines his background as an athlete with a deeply analytic mind to help filter out the crucial handicapping information from the chatter.

Rohit’s Super Bowl analysis

Drake Maye has been beaten up by strong defenses in the last two rounds, and the same story will play out against an elite Seahawks stop unit. Seattle’s offense could have issues getting into an early rhythm with Kenneth Walker III facing a stout Pats run D and Christian Gonzalez shadowing Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

That said, Sam Darnold will eventually be able to find Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed for big plays and put points on the board. Once the Seahawks build a lead, they’ll be able to shut the door on any chance of a comeback.

Rohit’s best bets

The Seattle Seahawks have the fifth-best DVOA (including playoffs) in NFL history since that stat has been tracked to 1978. The New England Patriots aren’t on that level and have benefited from playing against the weakest schedule in the league.

The lack of offensive talent around Drake Maye has been exposed in the playoffs, with New England averaging just 4.3 yards per play. He’ll get pummeled by a Seattle stop unit that led the league in defensive EPA.

Sam Darnold o229.5 passing yards – Analysis

Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards in the regular season, even while often playing with a positive game script. He went ballistic in the NFC Conference Championship, completing 25-of-36 passes for 346 yards. New England is stout against the run, so Seattle will likely air it out against a defense that ranked 15th in dropback success rate.

The Pats haven’t allowed many passing yards over the past month, but much of that came in poor weather while facing a string of subpar quarterbacks, including Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, and Jarrett Stidham. They’ll have a much tougher task containing Darnold, who was named a Pro Bowler for the second consecutive year.

Common Ground: Where our experts agree

They say that great minds think alike, and that’s certainly true when it comes to the Super Bowl spread. Neil and Rohit both jumped on the Seahawks at -4.5 immediately and are confident in Seattle’s ability to win and cover.

That view is consistent with our Covers Consensus, as 59% of all users also expect the Seahawks to cover in what is shaping up to be a very entertaining Super Bowl rematch.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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