It’s deadline day for the transfer window across Europe’s top leagues, but the weekend action still gave us plenty to talk about as last-minute deals come into focus. For a start, we may well have seen the last hurrah for Pep Guardiola and Manchester City‘s title challenge, blowing a 2-0 lead at Tottenham to fall further behind Arsenal at the top. Elsewhere in the Premier League, Manchester United — led by Michael Carrick — made it three wins in a row with a last-gasp victory at home to Fulham, a result that continues their slow rebuild following the failed Ruben Amorim era.
In Spain, Kylian Mbappé was (again) Real Madrid‘s hero in an ugly home win over Rayo Vallecano, one that’s showing the limitations of their interim manager, Alvaro Arbeloa. Beyond that, we have lots to discuss around Arsenal (who keep rolling), Liverpool (the Hugo Ekitike/Florian Wirtz partnership is a bright spot), Barcelona (their entertaining attack keeps being undermined by a wobbly defense), Chelsea (who got a dose of Liam Rosenior’s brutal honesty), Bayern Munich (who lost a game, no seriously) and much, much more.
It’s Monday morning, so what better time for some musings? Let’s get into it.
– Ogden: Carrick or someone else? Man United must decide soon
– Olley, Dawson: Man City’s blown lead could end their title charge
– VAR Review: Man United’s disallowed penalty, more
Manchester City squander a two-goal lead at Spurs … is it time to talk about Pep?
His place in football lore is secure and, obviously, Pep Guardiola has a job for life at Manchester City. But it’s hard to ignore the evidence in front of us. His team may be second in the Premier League, but they’re on pace to pick up 74 points in the league. That would be his second-worst point total since 2016, worse only than the aberration that was last season.
Now, we all agreed that last year was a weird one-off: four defeats in a row for the first time in his career, one win in eight between Halloween and Boxing Day, no Rodri due to a long-term injury, Phil Foden on the shelf, etc. So why is this season heading in that same direction?
Could it be the massive squad overhaul, with six new first-team players (Rayan Aït-Nouri, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Antoine Semenyo, Marc Guéhi, Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki) coming in? Maybe. Pep Lijnders coming in as assistance coach to change the pressing patterns? Maybe. Rodri only recently returning to fitness and not quite being himself? Possibly. A defense that should have been overhauled sooner and now has two missing starters? Probably.
To varying degrees, it’s all of those things. What’s evident is that City aren’t the road-grading powerhouse they were until the summer of 2024. They haven’t experienced last season’s November-to-December horror show — though with the 2-2 draw at Tottenham it’s now one league win in six, which isn’t great — but they have meekly dropped points here and there on a consistent basis.
The Spurs game is a case in point. They comfortably went two goals up — had it not been for a ridiculous Guglielmo Vicario save from Cherki, it would have been three — and limited the home side to three shots for an xG of 0.17. They didn’t look like breaking much of a sweat because they didn’t need to, and you suspected they could kick it up several notches if needed. Except after the break, when Spurs raised their game, City did not. The lack of urgency and the late subs (the first came with 20 minutes to go) suggested there was no real perception of danger, even at 2-1 up. Spurs’ improbable goals did the rest.
I say “improbable” because Dominic Solanke isn’t going to conjure up a scorpion kick every week (or even season for that matter). And his first goal shouldn’t have stood: Marc Guehi gets his leg in front of him and he kicks through it. That’s a foul anywhere else on the pitch. And while we’re at it, having three dudes wrestle Erling Haaland to the ground ought to be a spot kick, regardless of whether the ball is in play or not. But I’ve argued that point last week. When you play within yourself and fortune turns against you, it doesn’t take a lot for you to drop points.
1:48
Laurens: Thomas Frank is not the right man to manage Tottenham
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discuss Tottenham’s 2-2 draw with Manchester City and explain why Thomas Frank may not be the right manager to take Spurs forward.
As for Spurs, the fightback shows the players are capable of putting in effort. Drawing any conclusions beyond that, however, is tricky. You can’t really judge Thomas Frank when he has just 13 outfield players to pick from. (Though you can judge that he has won one league game in two months while playing scattershot football, and that’s usually a recipe for the sack.) They’re not in danger of going down, and they won’t make their way into the European spots. Spurs might as well continue with him, hope to raise some more cash from the Champions League, and get ready to start their new manager search just in case.
Kylian Mbappe helps Real Madrid avoid dropped points, but not the Bernabeu boos
To be fair, nobody short of Alfredo Di Stefano and Cristiano Ronaldo rolled into one could have silenced the boos on a day like this. Fresh off the midweek Champions League embarrassment against Benfica, Real Madrid were booed before the game, during the game and at the final whistle. It’s no surprise that Vinícius was among the most targeted (given his reported issues with previous coach Xabi Alonso) and even his excellent early goal only offered a temporary respite. That’s how toxic the environment is right now and, I’m not gonna lie, newly installed Alvaro Arbeloa isn’t helping.
2:39
Laurens: There was a complete lack of effort from Real Madrid
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens analyse Real Madrid’s performance in their 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano and discuss what needs to change within the squad.
That extra effort we thought we saw against Villarreal a week ago? Gone. To be fair, Arbeloa wasn’t helped by the injury to Jude Bellingham after just 10 minutes. Maybe he thought he was being aggressive by sending on Brahim Díaz in his place, but the upshot was that Real Madrid’s midfield was badly overrun. It was especially unnecessary because he had options: Dani Ceballos (who would come on at halftime), plus two midfielders playing fullback — Eduardo Camavinga on the left, Fede Valverde on the right — with proper fullbacks (Álvaro Carreras, Dani Carvajal, Fran García) on the bench.
That lack of clear thinking set the tone for the game. Real Madrid went 69 minutes without a shot on target, from Arda Güler‘s effort in minute 19 to Brahim Diaz in minute 86. They did hit the woodwork twice along the way, but in the meantime Rayo equalized and should have taken the lead with Andrei Ratiu.
Arbeloa’s response? Send on more forwards: first Gonzalo García, then Rodrygo. The upshot being a disorganized, top-heavy mess that pushed furiously for the equalizer, especially after Rayo had a man sent off, with little other than individual runs. Nampalys Mendy‘s wild “air kick” hit Diaz, leading to the penalty that Mbappe put away in the 101st minute. That earned Real the three points, but with even more frustration and confusion than before.
Arbeloa looks way in over his head. He’s obviously not the only one responsible, but he’s the one who’ll be left holding the can if there are many more performances like this one. Nobody expects fancy football or sophisticated patterns of play — he hasn’t had time to implement much of anything — but the tough guy, man-in-black attitude isn’t working and probably doesn’t suit this group of players anyway. With no Copa del Rey, he has a luxury of a full week of training to sort things out. He’d better make it count.
That’s three wins on the spin for Man United, but this was a different challenge
1:10
Is the race for a top four spot down to Manchester United and Liverpool?
The “ESPN FC” crew discuss who they think will finish in the top four of the Premier League.
When you take over in midseason, especially amid chaos and the sort of toxicity that defined the end of the Ruben Amorim era, there’s only so much you can change in your first few games in terms of tactics and motivation. Weirdly, it’s sometimes easier to face teams like Man City and Arsenal (Carrick’s two opponents since taking over) right away, since it’s not difficult to find the right buttons to push against such opponents. You put in a system that’s simple and familiar, you look to counterattack and because there’s a new coach and a top opponent, there’s less pressure.
Fulham, however, presented an entirely different challenge relative to the Premier League’s top two opponents. While they were on a good run and had risen to seventh, on the road at Old Trafford they would likely have settled for a point, and as often happens with Marco Silva sides, they’re comfortable playing on the counter. United would have to break them down.
Taking the lead through Casemiro (who has stepped up big time) in the first 20 minutes and doubling it via Matheus Cunha just before the hour mark made things a heck of a lot easier … until it wasn’t. Things spun out of control in the last 15 minutes (maybe not coincidentally after Casemiro came off). Harry Maguire cleaned out Raúl Jiménez (was needless) to concede a penalty, Kevin hit an unstoppable wonder strike, and suddenly it was 2-2.
In the end, Benjamin Sesko‘s late winner — and some questionable defending from Fulham — bailed out United and secured the three points. In some ways, if Carrick can spin it correctly to his players, he got the best of both worlds: a win and a largely convincing performance, plus a whole bunch of teachable moments and obvious areas where United can improve.
1:26
What has Michael Carrick changed at Manchester United?
Mark Donaldson and Shaka Hislop discuss how United have looked different since Michael Carrick replaced Ruben Amorim.
You wonder, too, what this means for Sesko, who has mostly blown cold since arriving from RB Leipzig over the summer. Carrick has given him just 27 minutes in his three games in charge, but he had scored three in his previous two appearances before that, and he took his goal well and hit the crossbar against Fulham. Results and a Champions League spot are obviously going to be the priority for Carrick. But if he can also show that Sesko — who is young and cost a fortune — can be a viable long-term option up front, it will only increase his chances of getting the job on a permanent basis.
Borussia Dortmund cut the Bundesliga gap to six points, but also remind you why they (probably) won’t win the title
Harsh? Not really, if they continue to play like this. At home against Heidenheim — who are dead last and now have two points in their past seven games, for those keeping score at home — they took the lead and then found themselves 2-1 down with 22 minutes to go. That’s when Serhou Guirassy — who, lest we forget, had scored once in Bundesliga play since Halloween — conjured up two quick-fire goals (the first a penalty in which he was fortunate, to put it mildly) to give them a 3-2 lead. Nico Kovac, on the bench, finally relaxed.
OK, so at that point, they just needed to maintain their lead against cellar dwellers under the Yellow Wall … easy peasy. Keep the ball, take advantage of the counter, make them chase you and see this one out, right? Oh no, this is Borussia Dortmund. First, Guirassy wasted his chance at a hat trick by slamming his penalty well over the crossbar. Then the Keystone Kops defending of yesteryear resurfaced, with Arijon Ibrahimovic and Mikkel Kaufmann coming within a whisker of the equalizer.
Needless to say, you can’t do this. You can’t give up four shots for a cumulative xG of 0.89 in injury time. Title-winning teams don’t do that, certainly not at home against the worst side in the league. That’s not just down to the central defenders, either. They’ve got the head-to-head against Bayern at home on Feb. 28, but even assuming they win that, it’s hard to see how they’re going to claw back another three points (actually, four, since they’re miles behind on goal difference, too). Especially if they play like this in crunch time.
Quick hits
1:27
Nicol: Arsenal were perfect in 4-0 win vs. Leeds
Steve Nicol reacts to Arsenal’s 4-0 victory against Leeds in the Premier League.
10. Noni Madueke lifts Arsenal in 4-0 drubbing at Leeds, showing it’s nice to have a Plan B: When Arsenal shelled out a massive fee (rising to £52 million, or $71 million) to secure Noni Madueke from Chelsea last summer, many — including yours truly — raised an eyebrow. We get desensitized by numbers, but squad-building is about resource allocation, and for that kind of fee, you generally expect to secure a starter. While doubtlessly gifted, Madueke had one season as a regular under his belt at Chelsea and, more importantly, the guy who played right wing at Arsenal — Madueke’s best position — also happened to be arguably the Gunners’ best player: Bukayo Saka. True, Madueke could also play on the left, but he hadn’t performed nearly as well on that side, and Arsenal already had quality options on that flank in Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard.
Games like Saturday’s — when Madueke was called into the starting lineup after Saka picked up an injury during pregame warm-ups — vindicate the club’s decision. Not only has he been an invaluable stand-in for Saka when the latter is unavailable, he has also allowed Mikel Arteta to manage Saka’s minutes. And while nobody at the club would admit it, his arrival was likely also a form of “insurance” (and leverage) just in case negotiations over Saka’s contract extension went awry. (They didn’t, and in January he signed a three-year extension through 2030.) Of course, as insurance policies go, this was a very expensive one and it remains to be seen how things shake out long-term. He’s six months younger than Saka, and it’s not clear he’ll want to play second fiddle the rest of his career. But for now, Arsenal’s counterintuitive choice is paying off handsomely.
9. Inter roll past Cremonese, but firecracker thrown on pitch is a reminder of the bad old days: Inter turned in the sort of performance that aspiring champions are supposed to turn in at Cremonese. They went on the front foot early and raced to a two-goal lead, with Lautaro Martínez scoring on a pinpoint header (giving him 17 on the season) and Piotr Zielinski unleashing a devilish, swerving strike. Inter saw out the game from there, limiting Cremonese to just two shots on target while still having more than 60% possession. Not that long ago, Serie A watchers would have called it “brave” — teams that took the lead were supposed to sit and hit on the break — but these days, it’s what you have to do if you want to win.
On the flip side, a firecracker thrown from the stand occupied by visiting Inter Ultras landed close to Cremonese keeper Emil Audero. To his credit, Audero didn’t feign injury, but the fright and discomfort were evident. Inter condemned the gesture straight away, and the Ultras identified the individual responsible, who was apprehended. That part is encouraging, because this wasn’t just a dangerous gesture, and an unwelcome turning back of the clock to a time when they were far too common. It was also incomprehensible, given there’s no particular animosity between the teams, there was no beef with Audero and Inter were 2-0 up at the time.
8. Reality bites elsewhere, but Ekitike and Wirtz are making Liverpool their own: There are lots of reasons to see Liverpool’s glass as half-empty. They’re sixth in the table. They’ve suffered two season-ending injuries at the back, where one starting center back is 34 and the other is a free agent in June. Their record signing at center forward will likely have missed four and a half months of the season by the time he returns (and he was nothing to write home about when he was fit, either). Their other superstar forward said he was being “driven out” in December, went to the Africa Cup of Nations, returned and is still not at the level he was at in past seasons. Coach Arne Slot can’t seem to make his pieces fit together in a coherent way, partly because they keep breaking, and partly because, maybe, they just don’t fit.
But amid the gloom, there are two shining stars: Wirtz and Ektike. They carried Liverpool offensively in their 4-1 comeback win against Newcastle on Saturday. It could have gone differently — Harvey Barnes hit the post early on before Anthony Gordon gave Eddie Howe’s crew the lead — but it didn’t, and Liverpool crushed Newcastle after the break. But these are exactly the sort of games that have seen Slot’s men drop points this year, and knowing you have two guys like Wirtz and Ekitike, playing to their potential up front, is a massive boost and one less problem area to obsess over.
1:09
Laurens: Wirtz & Ekitike are building a special relationship at Liverpool
Julien Laurens reacts to Liverpool’s 4-1 win over Newcastle with goals for Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike.
7. Juventus break 4.0 xG mark for first time in four and a half years: Old-time Juve watchers simply aren’t used to this. Away to Parma, Juve didn’t just win 4-1: They had 61% possession and a 4.14 xG. They hadn’t posted an xG that high since a win over Spezia back in the 2020-21 season. They’re through in the Champions League knockout phase, they’re up to fourth in the table and, most encouragingly of all, manager Luciano Spalletti appears to have changed their mentality and approach.
I was a skeptic, but there’s no question he has ticked every box. Juve aren’t just playing a different, more contemporary, brand of football; Spalletti has also regenerated a host of individual players, from Jonathan David to Manuel Locatelli to Fabio Miretti. Credit to Spalletti; fingers crossed he doesn’t “glitch” (like he has sometimes done in the past), but credit also to the club. The incessant, backwards-looking cacophony of the Juve-sphere (we had it again with the recent suggestions of an absurd Mauro Icardi return) can be extremely difficult to deal with. Good thing general manager Damien Comolli isn’t listening.
6. Barcelona are a Faberge egg, gorgeous but fragile: I’ll just let the number speak for itself. At halftime of its away trip to Elche, Hansi Flick’s crew had taken 17 shots on goal (to four), hit the woodwork three times and recorded an absurd 4.56 xG (to 0.31). And yet somehow they were only 2-1 up, victims of bad finishing (ahem, Fermín López) and an even worse high defensive line.
And then at the break, Raphinha came off injured. Moments later, Joan García had to make a tough save from Álvaro Rodríguez, and you wondered whether Flick was thinking “is this going to be one of those days?” It wasn’t. Barcelona created more (and squandered more) and Marcus Rashford, who had come on for Raphinha, put the game away at 3-1. Even without Pedri, Barca can sparkle — especially against open opponents like Elche — but too often they feel like a house of cards.
1:12
Garcia: Barcelona ‘played with fire’ by not putting Elche away
Luis Garcia says Barcelona should’ve won their match with Elche by a much larger margin than 3-1.
5. Nuno Mendes might be Paris Saint-Germain‘s most important player: I did say “might,” so calm down, fans of Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Vitinha, but he’s miles ahead of the guy who replaces him when he’s unavailable, unlike the others who, at least on paper, have viable understudies. And he does things no left back in the world seems to do. On Sunday night, against Strasbourg, that meant patrolling the entire left side of the pitch on his own, especially after PSG went down to 10 men, and scoring the deciding goal to boot in a 2-1 victory.
For an hour or so, it looked like Luis Enrique had screwed up in dropping Dembélé and Doué: Was he sending some kind of message after the second-half Champions League horror show against Newcastle? It was 1-1 at the time, and the game was very much in the balance, with Strasbourg also hitting the woodwork. After Achraf Hakimi was sent off, you wondered whether Strasbourg would press on and and take the three points. Instead, PSG were actually better with 10 men, though is it really 10 men when Mendes does the work of three guys?
1:58
Why did Luis Enrique drop Désiré Doué and Ousmane Dembélé?
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discuss why PSG manager Luis Enrique dropped Désiré Doué and Ousmane Dembélé in their game against Strasbourg.
4. Antonio Conte is right (but also wrong) on fixture congestion as Napoli run on fumes: The good news is that Napoli beat Fiorentina 2-1 on Saturday and looked good doing it. It’s only their second win in their last eight games (all competitions), and they showed character in coming back after getting knocked out of the Champions League. The bad news? More injuries. This time it was defender Giovanni Di Lorenzo, and while it now seems he did not suffer a cruciate injury as first feared, Conte was still furious postmatch. “We’re on our way to ruining football. … We play far too many games too close together. … The god of money is in charge. … You’ll say I benefit from it too, but I don’t work for money. I don’t need it. I do it out of passion.”
I’m not going to argue with him on his last two points: He’s passionate and wealthy enough that he doesn’t need money (though then you wonder, why doesn’t he just coach for free?). And sure, fixture congestion is a thing. But his postmatch screed felt motivated as much by frustration — Napoli have no fewer than 10 players out right now — than rational thought. Playing too much and without enough rest in between does increase the risk of injury (though ones like Di Lorenzo’s can happen any time), but as I’ve said before many times, top players have agency on this one. Until they act, it will just be hot air and virtue signaling.
3. Atletico Madrid disappoint at Levante, but help is on the way in Ademola Lookman: It has been a rough week for Atletico Madrid. First, they lost at home to Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League, dashing any hope of a top-10 finish. Then, with a bunch of guys already out, they suffered three injuries (Alexander Sorloth, Marcos Llorente and Pablo Barrios) in a drab 0-0 draw at Levante. And all along the way, coach Diego Simeone and sporting director Mateu Alemany are taking pot shots at each other via the media over transfers (or lack thereof).
The good news is that on Sunday, they secured the signing of Lookman from Atalanta for around €35 million (rising to €40m with bonuses). Considering they had sent Giacomo Raspadori — who, let’s face it, Simeone didn’t seem to rate and who contributed little — the other way a week earlier for €22m, Lookman appears to be a relative bargain. The former African Footballer of the Year hadn’t been quite as devastating this season as in previous years (and he was set to be a free agent in June, which probably had something to do with it), but he’s a live wire whose skill set complements Sorloth and the star-crossed Julián Álvarez nicely. In the Simeone-Alemany wars I’m biased toward the former, but to be fair, he can no longer claim he’s short-handed at the attacking end.
2:35
Did Chelsea deserve to get booed at halftime vs. West Ham?
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discuss Chelsea’s comeback 3-2 victory over West Ham.
2. More than the comeback, Liam Rosenior’s brutal honesty stands out at Stamford Bridge: At halftime on Saturday, Chelsea were 2-0 down at home to relegation-threatened West Ham, and the home crowd was predictably furious. The boos rang out all over the ground, and rather than talk nonsense about how fans need to support the players, Rosenior said postmatch that they were “right to boo” and he would have booed himself. Yes, Chelsea were that bad, and Rosenior said it was up to him to change their mind. He added — in Rosenior fashion — that he hoped that one day the fans would think his appointment was “the best decision the club ever made.”
So how did he fix it? By making three halftime substitutions and replacing guys who, at best, are squad players right now with bona fide starters: Out went Jorrel Hato, Alejandro Garnacho and Benoît Badiashile, in came Marc Cucurella, João Pedro and Wesley Fofana. (Jamie Gittens — who also fits the “squad player” category — had come off earlier for Pedro Neto.) It’s amazing what happens when you replace “meh” players with better ones. Chelsea roared back and eventually won it 3-2 thanks to Enzo Fernández in injury time. So sure, praise their spirit and Rosenior’s subs if you like. (It’s worth noting that West Ham hit the post and had a couple of big chances of their own after the break, so it’s not as if it was one-way traffic.) It’s now five wins on the spin for Rosenior, but you can bet he’s not getting carried away. And perhaps, he’s realizing just why his predecessor, Enzo Maresca, wasn’t on board with giving certain guys playing time.
1. Bayern Munich drop points again, but maybe that’s not a bad thing: This weekend’s 2-2 draw at Hamburg, coming on the heels of the derby defeat against Augsburg, means that for the first time in more than 10 months, Bayern have gone two consecutive Bundesliga games without a win. That should give you some sense of the scale of their domestic dominance, should you need it. The logical follow-on is whether it’s cause for alarm, particularly since they would have lost this game if not for Alphonso Davies turning on the afterburners and making a last-ditch goal-line clearance.
I’d argue it isn’t, and in the broader scheme of things, it might actually be a positive. Bayern were good — not great — on Saturday and were victims of a highly debatable penalty (Joshua Kimmich on Nicolai Remberg). More importantly, results like these keep them grounded and remind you of basic facts. Like if the opposition opts to defend and hit on the break (Bayern had 72% possession), you can’t just wait for them to make a mistake; you have to figure out how to create. Or that Lennart Karl is still 17 and maybe doesn’t need to start four games in 10 days, especially with Serge Gnabry and now Jamal Musiala around. Bayern aren’t complacent — not yet — and dropping points is a great way to immunize yourself against that.
