Some of the best teams from last year look like they’ll be as good as ever this season — like the Dodgers, who are projected for 100 wins and are the favorites to three-peat as World Series champions, with 99% playoff odds and a 28% chance to win the World Series.
But there are also plenty of risers and fallers in the 2026 projections, compared to how those teams fared in 2025. Those are more interesting.
Here are four teams that are trending up … and four teams that are trending down … in the 2026 standings projections.
(For an explanation of how the standings projections and playoff odds work, see here.)
1) Braves
Projection: 92-70 (1st place in NL East)
The Braves made seven straight postseasons, and won six National League East titles, from 2018-24. But they also won just 76 games last year, finishing 10 games under .500, in fourth place in the division and well out of a playoff spot. Yet they’re projected for a 16-win increase in 2026, which would put them right back on top of the NL East and back in the postseason as the No. 2 seed.
The Braves have the second-highest win total projection of any team in the Majors behind only the Dodgers, and they’re the only other team with a 10% chance or better of winning the World Series. And that honestly seems reasonable when you look at an Atlanta lineup led by a now healthy Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley and a rotation with Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach.
2) Mets
Projection: 90-72 (Top NL Wild Card spot)
The Mets had one of the most disappointing 2025 seasons of any team, missing the playoffs on the last day of the season after a prolonged second-half slide. Well, the FanGraphs projections think that 2026 will be a lot better. While the Mets aren’t projected to win the division, they’re projected to be one of three 90-plus-win teams in the Majors, along with L.A. and Atlanta.
With additions like Freddy Peralta, Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr. and Marcus Semien joining Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor in New York, the Mets have an 80% chance to make the playoffs. And even though the Braves are the projected NL East champs, the Mets have a one-in-three chance to take the division instead. There could be a three-team race between them, the Braves and the reigning division-champion Phillies, who are projected for “only” 86 wins but also set up to be an NL playoff team.
3) Orioles
Projection: 84-78 (3rd AL Wild Card spot)
FanGraphs’ standings projections think the American League East will be the most stacked division in baseball, with four projected playoff teams. Three of those teams made the postseason in 2025: the Yankees, Red Sox and the AL pennant-winning Blue Jays. And then there’s the Orioles, who slipped from back-to-back playoff appearances in 2023 and ’24 to a last-place finish in 2025.
But the O’s could jump back into the postseason in 2026. Even though they’re the projected fourth-place finisher in their loaded division, that would make them the third and last AL Wild Card team, and they have 55% playoff odds. For Baltimore to do it, it would take bounceback seasons from Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, and maybe breakouts from the likes of Jackson Holliday and Shane Baz.
4) Pirates
Projection: 82-80 (38% playoff odds)
Pittsburgh hasn’t finished over .500 since 2018 and hasn’t made the postseason since 2015. But the standings projections have the Pirates finishing with a winning record in 2026 — and even give them a shot to break their postseason drought.
The Pirates aren’t quite a projected playoff team, but they have the highest playoff odds of any team outside of the initial postseason field at 38%. And the projections give them a fighting chance in the NL Central race along with the Cubs (projected 86 wins, 64% playoff odds) and Brewers (projected 83 wins, 42% playoff odds). They’ll go as far as Paul Skenes can take them.
1) Guardians
Projection: 76-86 (1st place to 4th place in AL Central)
Cleveland’s shocking late-season rally to win the AL Central was one of the most exciting storylines in baseball down the stretch last season. And this is a team that’s made the playoffs four times in six seasons since 2020.
But the projections just don’t like the Guardians in 2026. Even after the recent long-term extension of cornerstone star José Ramírez, Cleveland is projected to win 12 fewer games this season and slide from first place to fourth place in the division, well under .500 and all the way out of the playoffs. FanGraphs likes the Tigers a lot more (84 wins, 61% playoff odds) despite the Guardians’ surge past Detroit last season.
2) Padres
Projection: 79-83 (2nd NL Wild Card to 4th place in NL West)
The most disappointing projection in the National League has to be the Padres, who are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances in 2024 and ’25, when they looked like the only real threat to the Dodgers in the NL West.
But the projected standings have San Diego dropping from 90 wins to 79 this season and finishing a distant fourth place in the division, behind not just the Dodgers but the Giants and D-backs, too. It’s an interesting projection given all the talent on the Padres, who have Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, Mason Miller, Michael King, Nick Pivetta and more.
3) Brewers
Projection: 83-79 (14-win dropoff)
The Brewers always seem to be underappreciated in projections. So we wouldn’t be surprised if they’re right back on top of the NL Central for a fourth straight season despite being projected for a mere 83 wins in 2026, a 14-win decrease from their 97-win 2025 season.
Even with another low-ish projection, Milwaukee is still positioned to be in the playoffs as the third NL Wild Card team. But that’s a long way from “the most wins of any team in the Majors,” which is where the Brew Crew was last year. The 2026 Brewers look like the same type of team they’ve been the last several seasons, though — one that puts the pressure on opponents with ultra-aggressive baseball — and that’s how they win. The projections might be way too low on them once again.
4) Reds
Projection: 78-84 (Wild Card team to 16% playoff odds)
The Reds surprised everyone by making the playoffs in 2025, clinching the final NL Wild Card spot on the final day of the regular season. They overperformed expectations, so the projections see them sliding back a little bit in 2026.
That would take Cincinnati back out of the playoffs — the team has playoff odds of just 16%, per FanGraphs, and is projected to finish behind the Cubs, Brewers and Pirates in the NL Central. Unless stars like Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene and Eugenio Suárez have anything to say about it.
