Xavier at UConn: Preview, matchups, keys to the game

In their back-to-back NCAA champion seasons under Dan Hurley, UConn went 21-1 in non-conference play. Their only blemish was a December 1, 2023 loss to Kansas by a final of 69-65. Even in that game, they were up 5 with under 10 minutes left and had the ball with a chance to tie in the final minute. Oh, and they were without the services of Stephon Castle, who was out with an injury. After a down year last year, they made it into conference play with a single loss, by four, with multiple starters out. In that game – a 71-67 loss to Arizona in November – they were leading and had the ball with under two minutes left but couldn’t quite get it across the line. Since then, barely anyone has laid a glove on them. They’ve gone away from home and knocked off Illinois, Kansas, and Florida, and run Texas and their duplicitous snake of a coach off the floor at home. They needed OT to be Providence and Villanova and somehow only beat Georgetown by 2, but they’re currently 21-1 and atop the league. Xavier… well, you know. They haven’t been a ball of fire this year. This team isn’t good per se, and they’re often not fun to watch, but they’ve shown a real penchant for fighting their way back into games in which they should have been dead and buried. There’s probably an alternate universe where Gabriel Pozzato never gets injured, Xavier beats Georgia, Marquette, Creighton, and St. John’s instead of running up a tab of narrow losses, and we’re looking at a potential tournament team built from scratch by Richard Pitino. We aren’t though. Instead, we’re staring down the barrel of the most difficult game on the schedule for the Muskies.

Team Fingerprint

This is the best defense in the league. They’re first in the Big East in EFG%, two-point percentage, and three-point percentage. You’re just not going to get a lot of good shots against these guys. They’re also third in the Big East in forcing turnovers and fourth in defending the glass. That’s backed up by sitting second in block rate and third in steals percentage. As you might guess, this all comes at a cost, namely hanging out at tenth in an eleven-team league in defensive free throw rate. They’re a bit susceptible to an unfriendly whistle, but that’s a trade-off Dan Hurley is clearly willing to make.

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Their offense isn’t as much of a strength, sitting all the way down in second in the Big East in AdjO. It’s a balanced approach, as they’re excellent at shooting from inside and outside the arc and second in conference play in OReb%. They don’t draw a ton of fouls and they have a legitimate turnover problem, but it’s clearly not hamstringing them. A third of their shots are coming from behind the arc and their pace in tenth in the league. They’re a veteran, polished offense that sometimes gets a bit out over its skis.

Players

Reserves

They’re floating around the national average with 33.7% of their minutes coming off the bench, but they’ve got four solid players who are able to give the starters a breather. It starts with 7’1″, 260-pound freshman Eric Reibe. He’s averaging 7.1/4.2/0.5 per game and is predictably awesome on the glass at both ends. He scores efficiently in the paint, has occasional range, and is buns at the line. Behind him, wing Jaylin Stewart is basically who he has been since he arrived on campus. Flexible defender who fouls a bit too much, serviceable rebounder, acceptable three-point shooter (35% this year) on low usage. He’s averaging 5.1/3.0/1.3 per game and is just a really solid seventh man. His classmate Jayden Ross is basically the diet version of Stewart, doing everything just slightly worse on his way to 4.3/2.3/0.6 per game. Malachi Smith is the bench guard and an excellent backup point. He averages 4.3/1.7/3.3 per game and has a gaudy 30.8% assist rate. He’s a very good three-point shooter who is really bad inside the arc, leading to a somewhat hilarious .356/.484/.514 shooting line.

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Three questions

-How does Xavier approach this game? I’m not trying to be a Negative Nancy here, but UConn is, objectively, a much better team than Xavier is. Anyone who watched the Huskies rip off a 27-4 run in the early portions of the Cintas leg of this matchup to effectively bury the game will have my back on this. The only team to beat UConn this year left behind a blueprint that includes having multiple all-league level players miss the game. Providence took them to OT by making 58% of their threes and Villanova forced 5 minutes of free basketball by crushing the offensive glass. That’s not a gear that Xavier has; it’s going to take a masterclass by Pitino and his staff to make this a game.

-How long does All Wright keep his starting role? It’s not that Wright is doing a whole lot wrong, it’s just that he’s not doing a whole lot at all. He’s a very efficient player, but his usage rate is under 12% and his shots rate is under 10%. He’s basically just a ball recycler on the offensive end. Walker’s energy was the difference in the result against DePaul. Maybe that’s a skill set best deployed off the bench, but Xavier needs to value every possession and having Wright – a perfectly competent offensive player – play the role of a passenger is arguably not the best use of a starting role.

-Is Tre Carroll running out of gas? After ripping off 89 points in three games through the middle of January, Carroll has had two fairly inefficient games in a row. He has still gotten his points, but it has taken him 31 FGA to get to 43 points, and he’s turned the ball over nine times. Heavy legs happen, but he needs some more help before he repeats his second half performance against Seton Hall.

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Three keys

-Put the ball in Big Fil’s hands. He was one of the few Muskies to show up against Connecticut last time out, dropping 14/11/6 on good efficiency with only 2 turnovers. He’s a strong, usually smart point forward, and that makes him a difficult matchup even for a skilled defensive team like UConn. Letting All Wright spend more time off the ball as a slasher or standing shooter might help him unlock something, and X needs all hands on deck for this one. The best way to do that is to let Borovicanin run the show.

-Arrive on time. I know it’s so simple as to be almost prosaic, but if Xavier starts slow, UConn will remorselessly run them off the floor. There’s no wiggle room against a team this solid, and Dan Hurley doesn’t walk into the gym looking to dole out favors. Nothing is quite so demoralizing as realizing the game is over by the second media timeout. Xavier has to be able to travel well if they’re going to build this program back to where it should be; avoiding a road no-show against a dominant team would be a nice start.

-Unleash Jovan Milicevic. He was so bad against UConn at Cintas that he didn’t even have time to foul out. After watching him go for 2/3/1 with 2 turnovers in 20 minutes of play, Richard Pitino gave him the rest of the night off. When he’s clicking, he’s the rare player who can go toe-to-toe with Alex Karaban. Getting a wash out of that matchup could be vital for Xavier to make this game anything other than a glorified walk through for the hosts.