It’s Tuesday evening here at BCB After Dark: the hippest hangout for night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs friends abroad. Come on in and relax for a while. Get out of the cold. We can check your coat for you. There are still a few tables available. Bring your own beverage.
BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.
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Last night, I asked you if you’d be open to trading Matt Shaw to the Red Sox for a top 100 pitching prospect. When you add up the three “Yes” answers, 52 percent of you would make that deal with 32 percent of you willing to accept either Connelly Early or Payton Tolle in return. Another 48 percent of you would refuse to deal Shaw for such a package. So it was a close vote.
I don’t normally do movies on Tuesdays, but you still have time to vote in the BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic between 2001: A Space Odyssey and Planet of the Apes. But I always have time for jazz, so those of you who skip that can do so now. You won’t hurt my feelings.
Tonight I’m featuring South African saxophonist Sisonke Xonti’s tribute to a city that I worked in for four years, “Minneapolis.” (I lived across the river in St. Paul.) This is from 2020.
Welcome back to everyone who skips all that jazz.
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Fangraphs is up with their first standings and playoff predictions and to no one’s surprise, they have the Cubs winning the National League Central with 86 wins.
But the Cubs have only a 44 percent chance of winning the division. As you might expect, the Brewers are given the second-best chance at 24 percent. After all they’re the three-time defending division champs and they’ve won the division four of the past five seasons. The Brew Crew certainly seem to have taken a step backwards with the trades of Freddy Peralta and Isaac Collins, but the Brewers have made trades like that before and not lost a step. So it makes sense that the Brewers would be given the second-best chances of winning the division.
We’d assume that the Reds would have the third-best chance. After all, the Reds finished in third last season and made the Wild Card round. They’ve just signed third baseman Eugenio Suárez, and that’s going to be worth a win or two against the Cubs alone, I would guess. The Reds have four excellent young starters in Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Andrew Abbott. And while they weren’t able to sign Elly De La Cruz to an extension, he still plays for the Reds in 2026.
But according to the Steamer projections, the Reds are not the team threatening to come up from the outside. Instead, they give the Pirates to finish with 82 wins and a 20 percent chance to win the division. The Reds, on the other hand, are projected for 76 wins and only a nine percent chance at the division crown.
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The Cardinals are going into a rebuilding phase and are predicted for just 75 wins. I think that’s generous. I think it was also calculated before the Brendan Donovan trade.
So are the Pirates a team to worry about? Of course, they have the chance to beat you everytime Paul Skenes takes the mound. But that was true last year as well. The Pirates only won 71 games with Skenes in 2025 and he went 10-10. Maybe we don’t put much stock in W-L records for pitchers anymore, but that does indicate that Pittsburgh doesn’t win every time Skenes takes the mound.
So why is the projection so bullish on the Pirates that they have them increasing their win total by 11 and being a legitimate threat to win the division? For one, the Pirates have attempted to improve their anemic offense, which was worst in the majors by run scored, by bringing in three new starters to the lineup. Outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia was acquired in a trade with the Red Sox. Second baseman Brandon Lowe came over from the Rays in a three-way deal. And the Pirates added first baseman Ryan O’Hearn in a free agent deal.
On top of that, the Pirates have two really, really good prospects who may be ready to play this year. Right-handed starter Bubba Chandler has already made his major league debut and he was quite solid over four starts. The ZiPS projection system has Chandler being an above-average starter this year.
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Then there’s shortstop Konnor Griffin, who is the number-one prospect in all of baseball. Some are calling him the best prospect since Mike Trout. Keith Law of The Athletic was calling him “Willie Mays except he plays shortstop.” I think Law was being a bit hyperbolic there, but the point is that Griffin could be a superstar as early as this year. He’s only played 21 games at the Double-A level so he’ll probably start the season in the minors, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Griffin is playing in the majors by May.
Is that enough to make up a 12 game difference from last year over the Reds? I’m not sure. As good as he’s likely to be, Griffin isn’t a 12-win player. Garcia, Lowe and O’Hearn are certainly upgrades on what the Pirates ran out there last year, but none of those three players are what I’d call a star. Garcia is a rookie who played just five games last year. Lowe and O’Hearn had a bWAR last year of 1.9 and 2.4 respectively. Solid everyday starters, but not stars.
So between the Reds and the Pirates, which team is the “dark horse” to watch out for in the NL Central?
Thanks for stopping by tonight. We always enjoy it when you stop by. Please get home safely. Stay warm. Recycle any cans and bottles. Tip your waitstaff. And join us again tomorrow evening for more BCB After Dark.
