Russell Wilson invoked the “Why not us?” mantra ahead of the Seattle Seahawks‘ 2013 season. The incantation proved effective, as the Seahawks cruised to a 13-3 record, ultimately securing the organization’s second Super Bowl appearance and lone win in a 35-point victory over the Denver Broncos. Hopes of a repeat were dashed, however, when the New England Patriots‘ Malcolm Butler famously stunned the 12s, intercepting Wilson at the 1-yard line with 20 seconds left in Super Bowl XLIX just one year later.
Many believe had that toss been a Marshawn Lynch carry, the game’s outcome would have favored Seattle rather than New England. Of course, we’ll never know what could have been. Regardless, this year’s squad — which has embodied a similar underdog energy — has the opportunity to soothe an 11-year-long sting.
Sunday’s contest is not only a rematch between the Hawks and Pats, it’s also a massive chance at redemption for Sam Darnold. The third overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft played his most ruinous game versus New England when he was picked off four times and lost a fumble as the New York Jets‘ starting QB in Week 7 of 2019. More damning than the numbers (and they were bad) was the audio picked up, as Darnold admitted to “seeing ghosts” on prime time. The haunting seemingly followed Darnold over his subsequent campaigns; he changed teams, was demoted to backup duty and appeared regressively spooked in the wild-card round against the Los Angeles Rams last year as a member of the Minnesota Vikings.
Darnold has spent this season exorcising those demons. Having eliminated the Rams in the NFC title game, the former USC Trojan is one game away from scrubbing the “bust” moniker from his name. Given the surrounding talent at his disposal, the matchup and the strength of his team’s defense, I’m betting on a “make good” for Seattle and the city’s newest adopted son.
Below is a list of wagers that echo a mutually beneficial narrative of acquiring bags and celebrating new beginnings. Some of the odds are long, while others are decidedly short. Your tolerance for variance is as personal as the narratives provided by the matchup.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl LX MVP (+115)
The defense might have carried Seattle to Santa Clara, and it will likely be a united force in bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to the Emerald City, but quarterbacks remain the league’s brightest stars. Assuming the Hawks are victorious and Darnold’s effort isn’t disastrous, the data supports him ending up as the game’s MVP.
The winning team’s quarterback has been named MVP in 34 of 59 Super Bowls and seven of the last nine. Coincidently, the last non-QB MVP winner was Cooper Kupp in 2022. Before him, Julian Edelman won the award in 2019. There is a world in which Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+550) or Ernest Jones IV (90-1) shine brightest. Still, given the fact that Darnold is 0-4 in his career versus the Patriots — and noting the theme of redemption — my rooting interests align with the team’s signal caller.
Patriots +4.5 (-105)
That said, the Patriots should cover. Interestingly, underdogs are 5-0 against the spread and 4-1 outright (three straight victories) over the last five Super Bowls. Having both Christian Gonzalez and Milton Williams on the field together figures to bolster New England’s defense (including playoffs, the Patriots have allowed just 14.5 PPG when the duo has been active) and Maye’s mobility (he has 129 rushing yards on scrambles this postseason, fourth most by any QB in a single postseason in the last 20 years) is likely to keep this game close.
Darnold OVER 239.5 passing + rushing yards (-114)
The current over/under for Darnold’s total passing yards is 230.5. Darnold cleared this number in 11 of 19 total games played, averaging 237.7 passing yards per contest through the regular season and playoffs. He also managed at least 242 passing yards in six of seven games in which the score was within four points (the current spread is 4.5).
From a rushing perspective, Darnold managed 5.5 yards per outing. Meanwhile, the Patriots allow an average of 18.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and have given up a total of 91 rushing yards to the position over three postseason games (the lowest total of which was 11 rushing yards versus C.J. Stroud in the divisional matchup).
Assuming the game stays close, Darnold should effectively utilize the entirety of his faculties to record over 240 total yards Sunday.
Darnold OVER 2.5 rushing attempts (+101)
Darnold averaged two rushing attempts per contest over 19 total games. Those attempts, however, increased over his final 11 contests, as 28 of his 38 rushes occurred from Weeks 10 on. Accordingly, the Patriots’ defense invited an average of 3.7 QB carries over 20 outings with at least two such attempts occurring in each postseason outing. Given that kneels count as rushing attempts, Darnold should clear the above line in a winning effort.
George Holani OVER 10.5 rushing yards (-112)
Kenneth Walker III has been a revelation for the Seahawks, particularly during the playoffs. He figures to play a prominent role in Seattle’s offensive attack Sunday. While he could hit the over on 101.5 scrimmage yards (-108), there’s a lesser-known name I’d prefer to wager on.
Holani is by no means a speedster, but he has solid burst and adequate hands. He’s also the Seahawks’ No. 2 RB behind Walker with Zach Charbonnet sidelined (ACL). The Boise State product injured his hamstring in Week 12 but returned just in time to replace Charbonnet during the team’s NFC Championship bout versus the Rams. Holani recorded a snap share of 34%, touching the ball six times for 31 total yards in that effort. While he averaged only 3.4 yards per carry over the season, the 26-year-old’s opportunities should be robust enough to carry him to a double-digit rushing yardage total.
Kenneth Walker III over 23.5 receiving yards (-108)
I like Holani’s line because the number is so low. That doesn’t mean, however, that Walker won’t eat, particularly as a pass-catcher. I’m clearly not alone, as this line has increased from 20.5 to 23.5 receiving yards since opening. Regardless, I’m still in. Mostly because I believe Mike Vrabel will stay aggressive, regularly pressuring Darnold. That’s where Walker’s pass-catching talents figure to come in.
The 25-year-old has gone over 25 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including at least 29 receiving yards in each postseason outing. The Patriots gave up an average of nearly 31 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs throughout 2025 and allowed 22 receiving yards to Denver rookie running back RJ Harvey in the AFC Championship. Having recorded six or more catches of 15 yards (RB11), and given Charbonnet’s absence, Walker’s role will be key to a Seattle victory.
Drake Maye 2+ interceptions (+325)
I promise I’m not hating. Nobody doesn’t love Bake Maye. (That’s even more true when the bulk of your colleagues reside in New England.) And Darnold is, decidedly, the messier QB, having accumulated 14 INTs, though he has played clean during the postseason. Still, I have to serve up at least one long shot. So here it is…
The Seahawks collected 19 INTS over 19 games. Maye only threw eight picks in the regular season, but he has added two to that total over three postseason outings. He’s also dealing with a shoulder issue. Given his youth and the ferocity of Seattle’s defense, miscommunications are bound to happen … maybe even twice.
Interception on a red zone play (+330)
A red zone interception in a Super Bowl rematch between these two teams? What are the chances? I can’t reference Malcolm Butler and not bet on some timeline syncing. The odds of a repeat are slim, but it’s not impossible. In fact, two of the 15 total interceptions forced by the Patriots occurred on red zone plays (both in the regular season) and three of the Seahawks’ 19 picks came in the red area of the field (all in the regular season).
Mack Hollins longest reception OVER 16.5 yards (-115)
While we’re on the topic of rare instances, let’s discuss a unique individual. Hollins’ eccentric style and field-stretching ability have made him a fan favorite. Injuries, in tandem with Kayshon Boutte‘s emergence slowed his production during the winter, but Hollins returned in the AFC title game contest to lead New England’s receiving corps with 51 receiving yards, which included a 31-yard grab.
With Seattle’s corners primarily focused on Stefon Diggs and Boutte, Hollins should get loose for a couple of long catches. Thirteen of his 48 total grabs (including the postseason) have gone for 17 yards or more. Interestingly, Boutte has registered the exact same number of receptions of 17 more yards during that time. Yet, the over/under for Boutte’s prop in the same category is set at 17.5 receiving yards (-120). The better value belongs to Mack.
Cooper Kupp OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-115)
Not many know the thrill of a revenge game quite like Kupp, who managed to score only his third TD of the season versus his old team nearly two weeks ago. While Kupp’s stats have sagged since his time in Los Angeles, the Eastern Washington product has cleared the above line in each of his playoff appearances thus far. The matchup is by no means easy, but with Christian Gonzalez on a mission to quiet Smith-Njigba, Kupp could find some breathing room in the slot versus Marcus Jones. And while he’s not as dynamic as he once was, Kupp can still get loose after the catch, ranking 20th at the position in YAC during the regular season. Kupp has the experience and skills necessary to help his team to victory and will flirt with 40 receiving yards Sunday.
