Get your popcorn ready! The biggest single-day betting event of the year in American sports is here.
The Seattle Seahawks will take on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX on Sunday. Both teams entered the season as long shots to win the Lombardi Trophy, each coming in, appropriately enough, at 60-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Five months later, they are the two that stand one win from becoming NFL champions, with the Seahawks as the betting favorite to avenge their Super Bowl XLIX loss to the Patriots .
A record $1.76 billion is expected to be bet on Super Bowl LX, spread over more than a thousand props covering everything that could happen from the opening coin toss to the victory Gatorade shower. So, which ones to pick? Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder did the dirty work to narrow down the field to 60 bets to make for Super Bowl LX. They won’t always agree on the bet to make, but they’ll give you the breakdown you need to decide if you’re tailing or fading their call.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Jump to:
Game-flow bets | Game result bets
Passing | Rushing | Receiving
Anytime TD | Prop parlays
Long shot parlays | H2H | Specials/novelty
Go with the flow
2:12
Madden simulates Super Bowl LX
Check out Madden’s simulation and its predicted winner of Super Bowl LX between the Seahawks and Patriots.
The first step to making a smart bet is to anticipate how the game will be won or lost. Defensive battle or offensive fireworks? Which players will be featured and which will be schemed out? These are the bets to make based on that script, and from which the rest of the selections flow.
Seahawks -4.5 (-115): I’m taking Seattle to win, so you can play the money line with this bet, too. It’s the offensive balance with the running game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the schemed shot plays for quarterback Sam Darnold. Plus, the Seahawks’ defensive team speed jumps off the tape, and they can limit the Patriots’ offense with their foundational coverages. — Bowen
Seahawks first-quarter money line/full-time money line (+135): The Patriots have traditionally struggled to put up points early in Super Bowls, having posted just three total points in the first quarter of the franchise’s past nine appearances. In fact, New England’s last first-quarter Super Bowl touchdown dates all the way back to January 1997, in Super Bowl XXXI against the Packers. Meanwhile, Seattle outscored the 49ers and Rams 27-3 in the first quarter over two games during the playoffs. Additionally, the Seahawks have outscored their opponents by 79 points in the first quarter this entire season. I expect New England to lean on the run, set a pace and come to life in the second and third quarters with Seattle ultimately edging out the opposition by three points at the close of the contest. — Loza
Patriots +4.5 (-105): This could be a Seahawks win and a Patriots cover. But if I like an underdog, it’s because I think they can win outright. New England is best in the league defending third-and-long plays. That could come into play against a Seattle offense that is 29th in converting those situations. Seattle’s points per drive drastically drops when taking a sack, and the Patriots are top 5 in pressure rate. If New England can force negative plays, +4.5 is significant. — Maldonado
Seahawks money line (-238): Sunday will likely come down to Seattle’s defense overwhelming Drake Maye and forcing New England into early negative plays. Seattle’s ability to generate pressure with four rushers puts constant stress on an offensive line that has struggled in the postseason and limits the Patriots’ explosive passing game. On the other side, Darnold just needs to be efficient enough to capitalize on short fields and timely play-action throws. With both teams built on defense and ball control, this shapes up as a low-scoring, physical game that favors Seattle’s depth. — Moody
UNDER 22.5 first-half points (-112): I expect the Patriots to come out tight and the Seahawks to come out cautious. The way Seattle loses this game is with Darnold turnovers; the Patriots want this game to be low-scoring and fast so that it always sticks within one score and a lone Maye explosive can win it. As such, I think the first half screams by with field position battles and field goal attempts. — Solak
Seahawks alternate line -12.5 (+218) OR Patriots alternate line -7.5 (+487): I feel like there’s one angle that’s often discounted in Super Bowls: a blowout. Yes, I’m partial to the Seahawks, so I’m probably looking at an alternate line, potentially Seahawks -12.5. But if I were made to bet the Patriots, I’d do the same thing and play Patriots -7.5. Honestly, while I prefer the Seahawks overall, given the odds, that Patriots alt line might be the better bet. — Walder
Game result bets
We have our first bet down, but this is the Super Bowl. Why stop at one? Here’s another bet to make on the final score of the game.
0:48
Who does Gronk like in Super Bowl LX?
Who does Gronk like in Super Bowl LX? Rob Gronkowski makes his prediction for the Super Bowl between the Seahawks and Patriots.
Seahawks team total OVER 25.5 (-110): Including the playoffs, Seattle is averaging 29.2 points per game. On Sunday, let’s look for offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to mirror the run and pass game, which will lead to defined throws for Darnold. Plus, don’t be surprised if Kubiak isolates Smith-Njigba on the Patriots’ safeties in split-field coverage. — Bowen
Patriots +4.5 (-105): Relying on the axiom that “defense wins championships,” I’m taking Seattle to win outright. That said, the Patriots should cover. Interestingly, underdogs are 5-0 ATS and 4-1 outright (three straight victories) over the past five Super Bowls. Having both Christian Gonzalez and Milton Williams on the field together figures to bolster New England’s defense, and Maye’s mobility is likely to keep this game close. — Loza
Total points OVER 45.5 (-115): Both defenses generate turnovers, which can increase short-field scoring. Seattle leads with the most special teams touchdowns and ranks second in return yardage, adding non-offensive scoring equity. New England’s offense can move the ball, having generated explosive gains at the highest rate in the league. Even with playoff regression, sustained drives plus field goals, short fields and special teams push this total over. — Maldonado
Seahawks -4.5 (-115): The Seahawks enter Super Bowl LX riding a nine-game winning streak, driven by one of the league’s most dominant defenses. Seattle allowed just 17.2 points per game this season (16.5 PPG in the playoffs) and has held opponents to 16 or fewer points nine times. The Seahawks’ defensive front is talented enough to consistently pressure Maye. If Darnold limits turnovers, Seattle’s defensive edge and steady offense should be enough to win and cover the spread. — Moody
Total points UNDER 45.5 (-105): The Seahawks’ defense is the best unit in this game, and if it plays its absolute best game, it could keep the Patriots at such a low total that this bet gets home easily in a one-sided contest. But if this game stays close … I don’t think it’ll be a barn burner, but rather a cautious situational game that stays low scoring. I prefer the first-half under to the full-game under, as the Seahawks have some late-game offensive explosions (especially when their defense starts getting takeaways), but I’m still expecting a low-scoring game overall. — Solak
Seahawks -4.5 (-115): I feel less confident here than with any of the props, but if I’m picking a side, it’s Seattle’s. At its core, this bet is about a belief that Seattle is in a different class than New England. ESPN’s Football Power Index makes the Seahawks the best team in the NFL and the Patriots the 10th best. That doesn’t necessarily equate to a full 4.5 points, but on the biggest stage, I’m feeling like the Seahawks’ defense will bring its absolute best. — Walder
Passing props
2:05
Troy Aikman raves about Sam Darnold ahead of Super Bowl LX
Troy Aikman joins “The Rich Eisen Show” and says he’s thrilled for Sam Darnold and what he has been able to accomplish.
If you’re tailing the pass game …
Drake Maye 36+ pass attempts (+289): The best part of the Patriots is obvious: their passing attack. You know it. I know it. And most importantly, the Patriots know it. It’s why they had the second-highest pass rate over expected this season (per NFL Next Gen Stats). There are two ways this best can hit. The Patriots can come out with an extremely pass-heavy game plan, which wouldn’t be unreasonable given how well Maye has played this year, that it’s their strength and that they are underdogs! Or they could fall way behind and have to pass a ton to catch up. Either way, my attempts model makes the fair price here +229. — Walder
Maye 20+ completions (-127): The Seahawks are a heavy Cover 2 defense, playing it on league-high 33.1% of opponent dropbacks. That shell coverage limits vertical routes, but it also allows quarterbacks to take the throws that are available underneath. Maye averaged 20.8 completions this season, and he could be forced to throw with more volume if New England trails in the second half. — Bowen
Maye 20+ completions (-127): This has moved substantially since I gave it out last week, but I still like it. The Seahawks force more checkdowns than any defense in football, and Maye will be getting rid of the ball hyper-fast to protect his offensive line from the Seahawks’ rush. If the Patriots are trailing in the second half, as expected on a 4.5-point line, then we have garbage time as well to get over a fairly low number. I’ll be taking alts up to 25+. — Solak
Sam Darnold longest completion OVER 35.5 yards (-115): Darnold has cleared this line in 12 of 19 games this season and benefits from having one of the league’s top receivers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Darnold has been more aggressive downfield in the postseason. Klint Kubiak is likely to scheme up vertical shots, creating opportunities for both Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed, so even though the Patriots have done a good job limiting explosive plays, it’s hard not to see Darnold connecting with one of his receivers on a big gain in the biggest game of the year. — Moody
If you’re fading the pass game …
Maye UNDER 19.5 completions (+100): Maye averaged 19.8 competitions over 20 total games, registering no more than 17 competitions throughout the playoffs. Dealing with a shoulder issue, starting multiple rookies across the offensive line and facing a Seahawks defense that regularly sends pressure, Maye doesn’t figure to have an efficient outing. — Loza
Darnold UNDER 230.5 passing yards (-111): This isn’t a ceiling game for Darnold. He can have the efficiency without the volume because New England is elite in coverage. The game script envisioned caps attempts and yards. — Maldonado
For more on the QB matchup, check out Matt Bowen’s breakdown of how he sees the game playing out for the players who will be under center.
Rushing props
If you’re tailing the run game …
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 14.5 rushing attempts (-108): New England has fully committed to Stevenson, and even if the yards aren’t pretty, the volume will be there because the Patriots want to slow the game down, protect Maye and avoid asking him to do too much. That all runs straight through Stevenson getting fed early and often. — Maldonado
Kenneth Walker III OVER 72.5 rushing yards (-112): Walker has cleared this line in three of his last five games. Even though he didn’t surpass it in the NFC Championship against the Rams, he still handled a massive workload with Zach Charbonnet out after suffering a torn ACL in the divisional round. The Patriots’ run defense is solid but not elite, and Walker is one of the league’s most explosive backs, making him an excellent candidate to break a few long runs. — Moody
TreVeyon Henderson longest rush 10+ yards (+143): Henderson had 18 rushes of 10 or more yards during the regular season. He has the perimeter speed — and ball-carrier vision — to create explosive plays if the Patriots can win the edges in the run game. — Bowen
Henderson OVER 27.5 rushing + receiving yards (-109): Another line that has moved since last week but that it is still playable is this Henderson line, which is a great line to give us exposure on one huge explosive from the little used, but dynamic runner. Henderson had one of his lowest usage rates of the season two weeks ago against the Broncos, but was getting a decent split of the RB snaps in the weeks previous, and I think that usage rate will return against Seattle. The Patriots need to manufacture explosives somehow, and Henderson is their best bet to do it. I think 8-10 touches should get us 27.5 yards. — Solak
George Holani OVER 10.5 rushing yards (-112): Holani isn’t fast, but he has patience and burst. He’s also the Seahawks’ No. 2 with Charbonnet sidelined (ACL). Holani recorded a snap share of 34% working behind Walker in the conference championship game, touching the ball six times for 31 total yards in that effort. While he averaged only 3.4 yards per carry over the season, the Boise State product’s volume should be robust enough to carry him over the above line. — Loza
If you’re fading the run game …
Walker UNDER 32.5 first-half rushing yards (-115): The Seahawks are an outside zone running team, running the concept on 45% of their carries. But that’s actually an area of strength for the Patriots defense. They’ve allowed just 3.5 yards per carry against outside zone this season, fourth best in the league. Why the first half part of this bet? I’m wary of the Seahawks pulling away and Walker getting enough volume to overcome a lack of efficiency. But in the first half alone that’s less of a concern. — Walder
Receiving props
If you’re tailing the receiving game …
Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 94.5 receiving yards (-113): Smith-Njigba had 153 receiving yards in the NFC Championship, and he averaged 105.5 receiving yards per game in the regular season. Yes, the Patriots could play more man coverage with cornerback Christian Gonzalez matching JSN, but I still like the over. Smith-Njigba was the best receiver I watched on tape this year (winning at all three levels of the field), and he will see consistent volume Sunday. — Bowen
Mack Hollins longest reception OVER 16.5 receiving yards (-115): Hollins returned from injury for the AFC Championship and promptly hauled in a 31-yard grab, finishing the contest converting both of his looks for a team-leading 51 receiving yards. With Seattle’s corners primarily focused on Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte, Hollins should get loose for a couple of long catches. For context, 27% of his catches have gone for at least 17 yards. — Loza
Smith-Njigba OVER 6.5 receptions (-135): Short passing, chain-moving game, JSN living in space. Explosives can still be there along with the volume. It could even come by halftime. Even if the Seahawks play it conservative, JSN is the safety net all night. — Maldonado
Kayshon Boutte OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-113): Seattle’s defense is formidable, but this line feels low for Boutte. He has cleared it in two of his last three games and has seen at least four targets in each. Among Patriots receivers, only Stefon Diggs has more routes run and targets in the playoffs. — Moody
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 3.5 receptions (+130): Over the last three years, running backs have recorded a reception on 17% of pass plays against (zone) Cover-2 defenses. That’s more than any other coverage. And it makes sense. Running backs catch passes at a much higher rate vs. zone than man (because they can sit in the space between zones for easy checkdowns) and a two-high look gives them more room to work underneath. And guess who plays more Cover-2 than anyone? The Seahawks, 32% of the time. — Walder
If you’re fading the receiving game …
Stefon Diggs UNDER 44.5 receiving yards (-109): The more I dive into this game, the more I think Diggs will struggle to find explosive opportunities. The Patriots will use him as a third-down stick-mover, but he lacks the juice to separate from Devon Witherspoon in the slot and will struggle to break tackles against the best tackling secondary in the league. I will be looking at some negatively correlated Diggs parlays of under 44.5 yards and over 4.5 catches to chase a high-volume day in which he is used close to the line of scrimmage. — Solak
Anytime TD scorer
1:15
Stephen A.: Drake Maye’s mobility ‘problematic’ for Seahawks
Stephen A. Smith says the Seahawks should plan around Drake Maye’s abilities as a dual threat.
Scoring a Super Bowl touchdown is every player’s dream. Even the linemen. You won’t find any of them here, but here are our favorites to live out their childhood fantasy on Sunday.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-110): This line feels perplexingly small for a receiver that will see the volume he does. While there might be red zone concerns for his usage (the Patriots have a poor goal-line run defense, so the Seahawks might not need to throw the ball inside of the 10, and Christian Gonzalez is an excellent press corner in the red area), Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak showed us last week against the Rams that he has a variety of clever designs to get Smith-Njigba free releases inside the 20. He’ll get his opportunities. — Solak
Rhamondre Stevenson (+140): Stevenson has yet to score during the postseason, but we all know that TDs can be fluky. The vet has been heavily relied upon, touching the ball 58 times thus far in the playoffs. He also handled the backfield’s lone tote inside the 5-yard line. The matchup is rough, as Seattle’s defense has given up just eight scores to the position over 19 outings. Still, volume is key, Stevenson is due and the value is solid. — Loza
Stevenson (+140): Stevenson’s postseason usage implies he’s the running back the Patriots trust most. While he hasn’t scored during New England’s playoff run, he found the end zone in each of the Patriots’ final three regular-season games. — Moody
Drake Maye (+285): We can bet on Maye and coordinator Josh McDaniels. Maye had a touchdown in the AFC Championship on a designed carry in the low red zone, and he rushed for four scores in the regular season. QB draw, zone read, QB counter, etc. — that’s what we’re looking for. Or let’s see Maye pull the ball down on a scramble to get six. I was able to get this earlier at +300. — Bowen
Maye (+285): Quarterback rushing equity, broken-play upside and no dependence on goal-line play calling. If New England scores in a messy way, Maye is the guy. Stevenson (+140) has the safest profile, but Maybe is better value, given that Stevenson hasn’t scored in the postseason. Pick which risk you want. — Maldonado
Kyle Williams (+1100): Williams ran a route on 26% of the Patriots’ dropbacks this season, which isn’t that bad. Compare that to similarly-priced players like Eric Saubert (+1100, 13%) or Efton Chism III (5%) and Williams looks like a ball hog. Plus, Williams runs a ton of deep shots down field, so even if he only has one reception all game, that catch is always a touchdown threat. — Walder
For more, check out Mike Clay’s top predicted scorers for Super Bowl LX.
Parlays: 10-to-1 or shorter
Building a smart parlay starts with identifying outcomes that are at least loosely correlated. Here are six in order of ascending risk.
TreVeyon Henderson 19+ rushing yards and Kayshon Boutte 25+ receiving yards (+196): The Patriots must create offensive tempo with the run game, which includes winning the edges. Henderson has rushed for 20 or more yards in four of his last five games, and he had 18 rushes of 10 or more yards in the regular season. With Boutte, we are betting on some vertical targets when Maye reads man coverage, plus the in-breaking throws. Boutte topped the 60-yard receiving mark in two of the Patriots’ three playoff wins. — Bowen
Sam Darnold UNDER 0.5 INT and Maye OVER 0.5 INT (+212): I’ve only ever been wrong about Darnold, well, the entire season. I was a hater going into the year, and then he was lights out to start the season. Just as I announced I had bought in, he turned back into a pumpkin and was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in the second half of the year. Which is why I faded the Seahawks in the playoffs … and you know how that turned out. So how about I take one more stab at predicting Darnold? And if he doesn’t throw a pick, then Maye is more likely to (and vice versa). — Walder
Henderson OVER 18.5 rushing yards, OVER 3.5 receiving yards (+236): Rhamondre Stevenson has solidified his role as the Patriots’ lead back, but it would be foolish for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels not to involve Henderson in some capacity. He’s one of the most explosive players on the roster and can impact the game on the ground and through the air. The Seahawks’ defensive front generates strong pressure, which could lead to more screen passes and quick touches for Henderson. He also has the speed to break free on limited rushing attempts, making this an intriguing parlay. — Moody
Darnold OVER 230.5 passing yards, OVER 5.5 rushing yards, 2+ passing TDs (+375): Consider this a redemption stack. While Seattle’s defense has carried the squad, Darnold has managed the offense impressively, throwing for more than 230 passing yards in 11 of 19 total games played while posting at least 242 passing yards in six of seven games in which the score was within four points (the current spread is 4.5). While Darnold isn’t known for his mobility, he did take off more consistently over the last half of the season, averaging 7.8 rushing yards per game over his last seven outings. — Loza
AJ Barner anytime TD scorer, Barner UNDER 25.5 receiving yards (+800): I think Barner will be kept in to protect quite a bit, as the Patriots have been ramping up their blitz rates over the last several weeks. But Barner is still a great red zone threat with his huge frame, and he takes the Seahawks’ tush push carries, so he could score even if held without a catch in this game. This is a cheeky negatively correlated look that relies only on one player, but it still pays out 8-1. — Solak
Darnold UNDER 230.5 passing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 14.5 rushing attempts, Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 6.5 receptions, Drake Maye alt line OVER 24.5 rushing yards (+950): The Patriots want to slow things down, which sets up Stevenson to get steady volume on the ground, and Maye’s legs are his escape hatch when pressure comes. The Patriots are built to limit big passing plays, which should keep Darnold’s yardage in check while Smith-Njigba racks up catches underneath as the chain mover. A parlay on usage, pace and pressure doing the work. — Maldonado
Breakdowns: QB comparison | Offense/Defense | Top anytime TD scorers
Long-shot parlays
Big legs can lead to big wins, but these odds are long for a reason. Always bet responsibly.
Sam Darnold 3+ TD passes and Rashid Shaheed anytime TD (+1100): Darnold threw three touchdown passes in the NFC Championship, and he had three or more scoring passes three times during the regular season. We’ll need Darnold to hit at least one explosive play down the field, which brings the Shaheed anytime TD into the mix. Plus, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak can set up his quarterback in the high red zone area of the field. And let’s not forget that Shaheed has the ability to score as a kick returner, too. Open-field speed and vision. Let’s take a shot here at 11-1. — Bowen
Darnold passing yards 200-209 (+1100): I’m cheating a bit since it’s technically not a parlay, but it does need two things to happen, and an 11-1 long shot on a single prop is stellar. The Patriots defense forces short throws, Seattle can still score without needing passing volume, and Darnold can play clean but still be capped. Around 30 attempts at modest efficiency lands him right in the low 200s, making this a sweet spot. These odds are reasonable for a very specific, plausible script. — Maldonado
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8+ receptions, 130+ receiving yards and 2+ TDs (+1100): Quarterbacks have dominated Super Bowl MVP voting, so it takes a truly special performance for a wide receiver to win the award. Smith-Njigba has that kind of upside, given his target volume, production and strong chemistry with Darnold. The last receiver to win Super Bowl MVP was Cooper Kupp with the Los Angeles Rams five years ago when he posted eight catches, 92 yards and two touchdowns. A similar stat line from Smith-Njigba would put him firmly in the MVP conversation. — Moody
Patriots +4.5, Smith-Njigba UNDER 94.5 receiving yards, Rashid Shaheed OVER 22.5 receiving yards, George Holani OVER 11.5 receiving yards (+1100): Let’s say the Patriots shut down Smith-Njigba — unlikely, but possible. Who benefits? I think Shaheed will be seeing one-on-one coverage and accordingly has the chance to get over his line in one explosive gain downfield. I also think Holani, Seattle’s third-down back, will likely get some dump-off usage when Darnold has to turn away from his favored elite receiver. And if it’s a bad JSN day, the Patriots are likely keeping the game close. — Solak
Hunter Henry anytime TD, Kyle Williams 15+ receiving yards (+1400): Henry leads all New England pass-catchers in scores, managing eight over 20 outings. He should work as a safety valve over the middle versus a Seahawks defense that surrendered six TDs to the tight ends during the regular season. While Williams isn’t likely to be targeted a ton, he could sneakily set Henry up for that TD with a single long ball, especially given the defensive attention Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte figure to receive. The rookie registered the offense’s longest catch with a 72-yarder at Tampa Bay in Week 10. — Loza
Elijah Ponder 1+ sacks, Boutte 60+ receiving yards, Devon Witherspoon UNDER 5.5 tackles + assists (+4500): If I’m putting together a long-shot parlay, it’s going to have some defensive props in it. Ponder, I believe, is undervalued considering the uncertainty of Harold Landry III with regard to his knee injury. If Landry is out or only a part-time player — as has been the case for weeks — Ponder will be the beneficiary. Boutte has run a deep fade or go route on 30% of his routes this year, by far the most in the NFL, which makes his tail outcomes more likely. And 5.5 tackles + assists is a high line for a corner. Plus, if the first two legs hit, that’s a good sign for the Patriots, and Witherspoon is more likely to hit the over if the Patriots are losing (and therefore passing more). — Walder
Head-to-head/combined player props
Why bet on single player’s prop when you can pit them against, or off of one another? Head-to-head props are just that, one player’s results versus another’s, while combined props offer both players a chance to put you over the top.
Sam Darnold and Drake Maye OVER 451.5 combined passing yards (-114): This number feels low, and it’s climbing, so let’s get in on it now. This season, Maye averaged 258.5 passing yards per game, while Darnold checked in at 238.1, which would clear this number by more than 40 yards. — Bowen
Jaxon Smith-Njigba -47.5 receiving yards vs. Stefon Diggs (-114): JSN drew 11 more deep looks than Diggs over the regular season. He averaged 46 more yards per game during that time as well. Given his role on the offense and his ability to gain yards after the catch, a chasm of 50 receiving yards between the two seems entirely likely. — Loza
Diggs and Smith-Njigba OVER 142.5 receiving yards (-113): Diggs and Smith-Njigba should be leaned on heavily whenever the Patriots or Seahawks throw the football. Smith-Njigba has averaged 103.4 receiving yards across the regular season and postseason and has thrived against blitz-heavy looks, where the Patriots’ defense is vulnerable. Diggs led the Patriots in targets this season and remains Drake Maye’s go-to option in high-pressure situations. With a narrow spread pointing to a competitive game, both receivers should see enough volume to push this duo over the line. — Moody
Kayshon Boutte (+101) ML receiving yards vs. Cooper Kupp: Boutte is the Patriots’ best big-play receiver, whereas Kupp’s explosives typically come on play-action passes in which he’ss the second or third option. Even if the Patriots do a good job forcing targets away from Smith-Njigba and to other Seahawks pass catchers, I’m expecting more Rashid Shaheed and AJ Barner than Kupp, who will struggle to run away from wicked fast slot corner Marcus Jones. Boutte, meanwhile, will get the air yards necessary to outdistance Kupp with one big contested catch. — Solak
Most Tackles + Assists H2H: Christian Elliss (+105) over Nick Emmanwori: If this game stays close, Ellis is going to be around the ball all night. He lives in the box, cleans up runs and racks up tackles on short passes and broken plays. That’s steady volume. Emmanwori can flash, but his role is more coverage-dependent and a little game flowy. A competitive game makes the underdog in this head-to-head a solid buy on a guy with a viable tackle path. — Maldonado
AJ Barner +12.5 receiving yards vs. Hunter Henry (-112): This is more feel than anything, but I think these two are closer than the spread makes it seem. If the Patriots opt to devote a ton of resources to stopping Smith-Njigba, that’s going to leave targets to go elsewhere, and Barner is a logical beneficiary. And while Henry tends to receive targets farther downfield than most tight ends (8.0 air yards per target), that isn’t actually ideal against a Seahawks defense that forces opponents into short passes (5.1 air yards per attempt against, second lowest). — Walder
Specials/novelty bets
One final batch of props that might otherwise defy categorization or double down on previous analysis. It’s the Super Bowl; we’re leaving it all out on the field!
OVER 2.5 players to attempt a pass (+175): Reverse pass, toss pass, double-pass, etc. NFL teams install and rep trick plays all season long at practice. So, now we need coordinators Klint Kubiak or Josh McDaniels to call one on Sunday for this bet to cash. When to look for it? After a sudden change (turnover), with the ball in plus field position. — Bowen
Rashid Shaheed to have either 50+ receiving yards or 20+ rushing yards (+300): An explosive speedster with a versatile skill set, Shaheed is the Seahawks’ X-factor. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III likely to command the bulk of New England’s defensive attention, Shaheed could surprise. He registered 27 rushing yards (on two carries) in the divisional round and 51 receiving yards (on one catch) in the conference championship. — Loza
Patriots +0.5 first quarter (-125): This leans into the Patriots’ biggest edge: early scripting. New England is top three offensively in the first quarter, while Seattle has been average early on the road. Slow pace, strong defense and adjustments in play calling favors a tight or tied opening frame. — Maldonado
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win Super Bowl LX MVP (+550): Seattle’s offense runs through Smith-Njigba. JSN led the league in the regular season with 1,793 receiving yards, has surpassed 92 yards in 14 of 19 games overall and just stockpiled 10 receptions for 153 yards in the NFC Championship. The Seahawks don’t have a true No. 2 option in the passing game, so Darnold consistently looks to JSN in key moments. If Seattle wins and Smith-Njigba delivers another epic performance, he’ll be tough to beat for MVP, an award wide receivers have won nine times, most recently by Cooper Kupp in 2022. — Moody
Longest punt return OVER 18.5 total yards (-115): The Patriots’ Marcus Jones and Seahawks’ Rashid Shaheed are second and fifth, respectively, in the league in terms of average yards gained on punt returns. Including the postseason, Jones has a return of at least 19 yards on five of 28 opportunities, and Shaheed on a whopping eight of 23. At a line set for 7.5 punts, we should see enough opportunities for these two dynamic returners that someone clears this line. — Solak
Stefon Diggs fastest ball carry speed (Next Gen Stats) under 18.5 mph (-160): This has recently become my favorite bet of the Super Bowl. I built a fastest speed model for this category — which isn’t normally offered — just to have it for this game. And it immediately came back with Diggs’ under as a huge value, to the point that I thought it must be a mistake. But then I checked and found that Diggs has gone over this number one time all season. That’s because ball-carrying speed is so much more about the context of the plays in which the player has the ball than any other factor, including their 40 time. But Diggs, with his 8.5 air yards per target and just 25% vertical route rate, is not a deep threat streaking downfield and catching passes with clear paths to the end zone. He might get his production, but hitting 18.5 mph with the ball is a long shot. — Walder
