Betting the Daytona 500 is far from straightforward.
NASCAR’s biggest race has evolved into what can kindly be called a crapshoot over the last five seasons. As William Byron goes for his third straight Daytona 500 win, he’s hardly been at the front in any of his previous two victories.
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In 2024, Byron took the lead for the first time on a late restart and led the final four laps. Those were the only laps he led all day.
A season ago, Byron led 10 laps. But he wasn’t anywhere near the lead halfway through the final lap. Byron went from seventh to first on the last lap thanks to a crash at the front of the field that he somehow escaped.
Since Denny Hamlin led 79 laps on the way to his third Daytona 500 win in 2020 — a race he from third just football fields from the finish line as leader Ryan Newman went head-on into the wall — none of the last five race winners have led more than 21 laps. And outside of the 21 laps that Austin Cindric led in 2022, no winner has led more than 10 laps in any of the last four Daytona 500s.
It’s imperative to be in the right place at the right time. And there’s no consensus on where the right place actually is given the nature of Cup Series racing at Daytona and Talladega. You can lead 190 laps and get sent into the wall while leading just as easily as you can get caught up in a crash ahead of you while running 35th.
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You need far more luck than skill and a dominant car these days.
That’s why we recommend spreading out your bets if you’re looking to cash in on the Feb. 15 race. Instead of a large bet on one or two drivers, smaller bets on a handful of drivers — including a couple of long shots — is a much smarter play. Here’s a look at the field ahead of the first Cup Series race of the season. All odds are from BetMGM.
The favorites
Ryan Blaney (+900)
Blaney is still looking for his first Daytona 500 win but may currently be the best driver at Daytona and Talladega. He’s won two summer races at Daytona and has nine top 10 finishes in 21 starts at the track. He also has nine DNFs. That’s why it’s so hard to predict Daytona races.
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Joey Logano (+900)
Logano is going to be at the front of the field at some point. Book it. He’s led a lap in each of the last 14 Daytona races. However, he hasn’t won since he took the checkered flag in the 2015 Daytona 500.
Austin Cindric (+1200)
Yes, oddsmakers like Team Penske. Its three drivers are the three favorites and Cindric has the best Daytona average finish of three at 18.4. He has a top five and another top 10 in addition to his 2022 win.
William Byron (+1200)
Can Byron continue to be in the right place at the right time? Since he led 24 laps on the way to a win in the 2020 summer race, Byron has led 35 laps over the last 10 Daytona races yet has two victories in that span.
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Brad Keselowski (+1400)
Bet Keselowski with caution. He’s still recovering from a broken leg sustained in a fall during the offseason. He didn’t race in Wednesday’s Clash, though plans to be medically cleared for the Daytona 500. He has one win and eight top-10 finishes in 33 Daytona starts.
Great mid-tier value
Denny Hamlin (+1800)
Hamlin’s odds are so long despite being a three-time Daytona 500 champion because his recent stats stink. Hamlin hasn’t finished higher than 17th over the last eight Daytona races. But we think that’s far more likely to be Daytona noise than a skill regression.
Bubba Wallace (+2200)
Wallace has the best average finish of any active driver at Daytona at 14.4 despite crashing out in three of the last six Daytona races. He has five top-five finishes at Daytona and two second-place finishes in the Daytona 500.
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Long shots to look at
Josh Berry (+3500)
Berry drives for Wood Brothers Racing, a team that has a technical alliance with Team Penske. If you’re bullish on the Penske favorites, you need to also take a flier on the other driver in Penske equipment. Berry has one top-10 finish in five Daytona starts.
Erik Jones (+4000)
Jones has finished in the top 20 in each of the past five Daytona races and won way back in 2018 when he was driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
