NASCAR Predictions 2026: Projecting 16 Playoff Drivers for The Chase Before Daytona 500

The 2026 NASCAR season begins on Sunday, February 15, with the Daytona 500. The crown jewel race will start another exciting regular season, which should be even better this year with the return of the Chase format. Before the regular season begins, we are projecting the 16 drivers we believe will make the NASCAR playoffs.

Let’s dive into our NASCAR predictions for which 16 Cup Series drivers will make the Chase.

1. Kyle Larson

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The reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion, Kyle Larson, enters 2026 with a great opportunity to earn his third title. Hendrick Motorsports benefits greatly from the new 10-race championship format, and Larson will be well-positioned for the additional points that come from winning the regular-season title.

2. William Byron

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William Byron led the Cup Series in laps led (1,330) last season, which is an even better reflection of his regular-season dominance than his win total (three). The No. 24 team should not have to be quite as aggressive when going for wins this season, which should lead to a slight improvement in his average finishing position (14.5) and top-five finishes (11). Byron feels like a lock to finish in the top three in points during the regular season; even finishing in the top two feels like a safe bet given his track record.

Related: NASCAR Power Rankings 2026

3. Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney won four races in 2025 and tied Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe for the most top-five finishes (15). He also suffered from some of the worst luck among Cup Series drivers, as evidenced by his eight DNFs during the campaign. The number of DNFs is an outlier for the prime of Blaney’s career, and regression to the norm should result in his average finishing position from 2025 (14.6) returning closer to 12.0 this year. He might not win the regular-season crown, but we could be looking at the Cup Series champion in 2026 under the new Chase playoff format.

4. Chase Briscoe

Joining Joe Gibbs Racing in 2025, Chase Briscoe made the most of his opportunities with career-best marks across the board. He was particularly strong down the stretch, leading NASCAR in laps led (692) over the final 15 races while recording the second-most top-five finishes (seven) and the third-highest average finishing position (10.7) during that span. Now in his second season with JGR, there’s a bit less internal pressure on Briscoe to perform and his success should carryover into being one of the five best NASCAR drives this year.

5. Tyler Reddick

Tyler Reddick had a down season in 2025, failing to record a win and recording his fewest top-five finishes (seven), top-10 finishes (14), and laps led (169) since the 2021 campaign. It certainly feels like a lot of that can be attributed to the uncertainty over charter status, his future with 23XI Racing, and his son’s medical issues. With his long-term future with 23XI secured and his son’s health improving, Reddick should have more confidence and clarity behind the wheel in 2026. We think he could come close to replicating his success from the 2022 and 2024 campaigns, when he won three races and had double-digit top-five finishes.

6. Christopher Bell

It was a bit of an odd 2025 campaign for Christopher Bell. He started the season with three consecutive wins and then had just one in his final 32 races, ranking 12th in laps led (282) and placing behind Austin Cindric (325) and Ty Gibbs (304). Our belief is that he is closer to the driver we saw in the first quarter of that season than the one we saw during the summer. Bell should deliver another three-win season and have an outside shot at finishing in the top five in points at the end of the regular season.

7. Chase Elliott

“Mr. Consistency” is one of the biggest winners from the new championship format, but he will not see the rewards of it during the regular season. After all, Chase Elliott has won just three races over the last three seasons, so the bonus points for reaching victory lane might not be there for him. Or, at least, not enough to snag the regular-season title. With that said, a driver who has recorded 19 top-10 finishes in each of the last two campaigns is a lock to make the NASCAR playoffs and do so comfortably.

8. Denny Hamlin

Putting Denny Hamlin this low might be on the bolder side of our NASCAR predictions for 2026. It is not a question of talent, as the 45-year-old positioned himself to win his first Cup Series championship in 2025 before fate intervened on the final laps at Phoenix. However, Hamlin will be driving through an aggravated torn labrum this season and dealing with the emotions of racing for the first time since his father’s passing. If anyone can channel those challenges into success, it would be Hamlin, but we think the shoulder injury and the resulting impact on his practice time will cause his numbers to drop across the board this season.

9. Joey Logano

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It is an even-numbered year, but the new NASCAR playoff format will likely make it harder for Joey Logano to win a championship in 2026. He is still a lock to make the 16-driver postseason. Logano closed out 2025 with a strong playoff run, recording a 33 percent top-five finish rate and eight top-10 finishes over the final 10 races. He is always good for a win or two each season, and the No. 22 Ford has a good chance of finishing 10th or better in points when the Chase begins.

10. Ross Chastain

We expect Trackhouse Racing to be even stronger this season, with Ross Chastain leading the way. The team brought in Hendrick Motorsports engineer Brandon McSwain to serve as Chastain’s crew chief in 2026. We are projecting improvement in Chastain’s average finishing position (15.8) and top-five finishes (four) from last season, along with his most laps led since 2023.

11. Bubba Wallace

Even amid the uncertainty of the lawsuit and 23XI Racing potentially losing its charters for a portion of the season, Bubba Wallace showed real improvement in the summer. Beyond his Brickyard 400 win, the No. 23 had the fifth-most laps led (272), tied for the seventh-most top-10 finishes (seven), and sat ninth in average starting position (12.3) over the final 15 races. Now entering his second season with crew chief Charles Denike and backed by one of the best pit crews in NASCAR, Wallace has a chance to finish in the top 10 in points this season.

12. Alex Bowman

Alex Bowman is in a unique spot entering the 2026 NASCAR season. On one hand, the new Chase playoff format almost guarantees that the fourth-best driver for Hendrick Motorsports will make the 16-car field. However, the driver of the No. 48 is also in a contract year, and there are no guarantees he will receive an extension anytime soon. The crew and equipment should help Bowman finish well within the playoff field, but we do not suspect he will ever be considered a championship contender.

13. Ryan Preece

Winning the Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium does not give Ryan Preece any points that can carry over into the regular season. However, Preece and the No. 60 team will bring that confidence with them into the Daytona 500. Preece showed real talent late last season, recording an average finishing position of 15.7 and 14 top-10 finishes for the year. We are projecting a career-best season from Preece in 2026, giving RFK Racing a strong chance of placing at least one driver in the NASCAR playoffs.

14. Chris Buescher

We have a pair of drivers from RFK Racing making it into the playoffs, just not co-owner Brad Keselowski. Coming off an outstanding 2023 campaign—three wins, nine top-five finishes, and 255 laps led—Chris Buescher has totaled just one win with 11 top-five finishes and 255 laps led over the last two seasons combined. He is good enough to sneak into the playoffs, but nothing we have seen in the last two years suggests Buescher can return to his previous heights.

15. Shane van Gisbergen

Even if Shane van Gisbergen does not replicate his road-course dominance from 2025—when he earned five wins—that is not what truly matters in 2026. SVG showed remarkable improvement on ovals in the second half of the season, snagging his first career top-10 finish at Kansas. He also had some impressive moments at Bowman Gray earlier this week. While we think SVG will only win two road-course races this season, the overall improvements on ovals paired with those wins should be enough to get him into the NASCAR playoffs.

16. Carson Hocevar

Not only do we think Carson Hocevar records his first Cup Series win in 2026, but we are also projecting him to make the playoffs. He is still a bit on the overaggressive side, but he now pairs that style with more experience, and there is no questioning the speed he brings to the table in the No. 77. Hocevar will snag the last spot in the Chase, positioning himself as a dangerous wild-card threat when the postseason begins.

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