Each week during the 2025-26 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
Last week: LeBron James belongs in the All-Star Game
Fact or Fiction: The Thunder won the trade deadline
If nobody drastically improved at the NBA’s 2026 trade deadline, did the Oklahoma City Thunder — heavy betting favorites for this year’s championship, before and after — win it?
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There were more winners and losers, of course, but in terms of the title picture — what actually matters this season — can anyone match the defending champions on talent?
After all, the Thunder were the only serious contender — and the only team with a winning record, in fact — to trade a first-round draft pick at the deadline. They traded one of their many first-round picks (probably the one belonging to the fourth-place Houston Rockets), along with a trio of second-rounders, to the Philadelphia 76ers for Jared McCain, who was in the Rookie of the Year conversation last season before surgery on a torn left meniscus.
McCain averaged a 14-4-4 (on 39/38/88 shooting splits) per 36 minutes, almost entirely off the bench, for the Sixers in 37 appearances this season. It will be difficult for him to crack a guard rotation that is headlined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell, though injuries to SGA (now out through the All-Star break with an abdominal strain) and Mitchell (hip) have left the door open for additional contributions.
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And McCain could contribute. He was averaging a far more efficient 21.4 points per 36 minutes before his knee injury, and he remains on a rookie contract through the 2027-28 season. The Thunder must have liked him more than whoever they figured they might get with Houston’s pick, and for good reason. McCain is good. He may not meaningfully alter their championship odds, but they were already the team to beat, and they got deeper.
(Of course, this all hinges on the health of Gilgeous-Alexander, as it does for any team and its superstar. Let us not pretend that McCain is some sort of SGA insurance. He may help in the absences of Mitchell, who hardly played on last year’s title run, and other guards.)
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And if the Thunder are willing to spend a first-round pick to get deeper, then shouldn’t everyone else in pursuit of the defending champions be willing to spend even more?
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Well, not so fast. The Thunder own a dozen first-round picks over the next handful of years, as many as any other team, and that is what makes them so unique. They have both constructed the best roster and compiled the most draft assets, all at the same time.
In fact, the Thunder own the Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first-round pick, and they just traded two of their three best players — James Harden and Ivica Zubac — for a collection that includes Darius Garland, Bennedict Mathurin and multiple picks in each round of the draft. They all but guaranteed they will hand-deliver a lottery pick to the Thunder in June. Another reason the Thunder may have won the deadline.
It’s not as though nobody tried to get better. It’s just that no contender took a big swing.
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The Minnesota Timberwolves scored Ayo Dosunmu from the Chicago Bulls for a package that included Rob Dillingham and four second-round picks. Dosunmu is very good, posting a 21-4-5 on 51/45/85 shooting splits(!) per 36 minutes, mostly off the bench, for Chicago.
Dosunmu deepens a playoff outfit that includes Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid. They were already capable of giving the Thunder a series, as their 2-1 record against OKC indicates, and with Dosunmu in place of a 38-year-old Mike Conley they are a little deeper on the back end of their rotation.
[Get more Thunder news: Oklahoma City team feed]
The Timberwolves failed in rumored pursuits of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ja Morant. Three of the bigger names to move ahead of the deadline — Anthony Davis, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Trae Young — joined the Washington Wizards and Utah Jazz, two teams that have strong incentive (with picks protected only for the top eight) to lose the rest of the year.
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(The Jazz owe their pick to the Thunder if it falls anywhere from 9-30.)
The other big name, Harden, joined a Cleveland Cavaliers team that was looking up in the Eastern Conference standings at the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. It was a bet on a 36-year-old against a 26-year-old’s health, and it is unclear whether it made the Cavaliers any better than the second-round playoff fodder they were in 2025.
The Pistons, Knicks and Celtics all made moves on the fringes, respectively turning Jaden Ivey, Guerschon Yabusele and Anfernee Simons into Kevin Huerter, Jose Alvarado and Nikola Vučević. While all of those deals extend their rotations, none of them close what is perceived to be a significant gap between the East and whoever emerges from the West.
Speaking of which, neither the Denver Nuggets nor San Antonio Spurs — arguably the two biggest threats to the Thunder, when healthy — made any moves ahead of the deadline. Likewise, the Rockets, who were already teetering on the brink of serious contention, with injuries to both Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, did nothing to further bolster the roster.
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The Los Angeles Lakers, the fringiest of title contenders, turned two-way guard Gabe Vincent and a second-round pick into sharpshooter Luke Kennard, and it is hard to see how that move helps their 24th-rated defense. Maybe they just stun OKC on offense.
In reality, though, where there are only a handful of challengers who could upset the Thunder, none of them closed the gap on the current betting favorites. While that does not guarantee the defending champions of a repeat, it allows them to breathe a sigh of relief, as they are now assured of carrying their edge on talent into the playoffs, if healthy.
Determination: Fact. The Thunder won the deadline.
