The Pittsburgh Penguins scored one of their most impressive wins of the 2025-26 season on Thursday night when they beat a Buffalo Sabres team that has been one of the hottest in the NHL by an 5-2 margin. It was an impressive win not only because they mostly outplayed the Sabres, but also because they did it without Kris Letang, Rickard Rakell, Blake Lizotte and Noel Acciari. They did it with another mostly off night from the Sidney Crosby line. They did it with a couple of rookies (Ben Kindel and Avery Hayes) providing most of the offense.
It has the Penguins in second place in the Metropolitan Division going into the Olympic break, while also having a pretty nice cushion over the non-playoff teams in the Eastern Conference.
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It is impressive. It is also far better than anybody anticipated for this season when it began.
It also leads to a question that needs to be asked. Are the Penguins contenders this season? Right now? The knee-jerk reaction instinct is to simply say, no, they are not, because that is not what anybody anticipated at the start and certainly not what the expectations were. But as I wrote on Tuesday, your play changes expectations, and based on the Penguins play and results I am having a hard time arguing why they can not contend for the Eastern Conference this season.
Follow me here.
1. Can the Pittsburgh Penguins be Eastern Conference contenders right now?
Let me just give you some numbers on where the Penguins rank across the board in both the standings and some other major categories.
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NHL Points Percentage: .625 (7th)
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Eastern Conference Points Percentage: .625 (4th)
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NHL Goal Differential: plus-23 (7th)
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5-on-5 Goal Share: plus-15 (8th)
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5-on-5 Expected Goals Share: 52.2 (7th)
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5-on-5 Expected Goals For Per 60 Minutes: 2.92 (4th)
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5-on-5 Expected Goals Against Per 60 Minutes: 2.67 (17th)
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5-on-5 Scoring Chance Share: 51.6 (9th)
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5-on-5 High-Danger Scoring Chance Share: 52.7 (9th)
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Penalty Kill Success Rate: 84.0 (3rd)
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Power Play Success Rate: 25.9 (4th)
In just about every standings metric, possession metric, and scoring chance metric they are a top-10 team. In most of them, they are a top-eight team. They are an outstanding 5-on-5 team. Their special teams in both areas are among the best in the NHL. They have four capable forward lines with some depth beyond them (as we have seen with Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen and now Avery Hayes able to make the move from the AHL and contribute). The goaltending has run hot-and-cold at times, but overall it has been good enough.
The only metric where they are not in the top-10 is when it comes to preventing expected goals defensively. They are middle-of-the-pack in that area. But even then they jump up to 12th in the NHL over the past 25 games, indicating some significant improvement in their defensive play.
Against teams currently in a playoff position they are 13-5-6 this season. Against the other top-10 teams in the standings this season they are 8-4-2.
We all know what the preseason expectations were. We all know what the roster looks like on paper and where the perceived shortcomings are.
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We also know that we have a 56-game sampling where they have consistently outplayed teams, won games, and won games against other top contenders in the Eastern Conference and the NHL as a whole.
Right now the Tampa Bay Lightning are separating themselves from everybody else in the Eastern Conference and are starting to get healthy. They look like the class of the conference right now and are suddenly giving the Colorado Avalanche a run for their money league wide. They look impressive. Even dominant. Even then, the Penguins have traditionally matched up well with them and played them very well. Including this season. Including recently.
There is still a lot of hockey to be played, obviously, but not THAT much. The March schedule is brutally difficult and I suspect we will learn a lot about the Penguins during that stretch. We have also been saying that quite often this season and each time they keep passing the test. There is a lot to be said for that.
They are an objectively good hockey team right now. It is just a matter of how good and what their potential ceiling might be. My suspicion is it might be higher than even Pittsburgh thinks it is.
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2. Sidney Crosby is in a funk and it has not really mattered
The one Penguins line that is not really clicking right now is, oddly enough, the Sidney Crosby line. Part of that was the absence of Bryan Rust for a few games while he served his suspension, and Justin Brazeau not really being a great fit in his place. Part of it has been Crosby going through a rare funk. Both things are contributing.
Crosby especially has been struggling with zero goals, only two assists and a minus-3 rating over his past seven games.
The Penguins record in those six games: 4-1-1
That is a testament to the Penguins forward depth.
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That is also another box checked in the “why are they not considered contenders right now?” list.
3. Ben Kindel just keeps getting better
Of all the changes the Penguins made to their roster for this season, the selection of Ben Kindel and his unexpected presence in the lineup has been one of the most significant. An 18-year-old, non-top-five pick, playing at center, and just stepping right into the NHL and being one of the best players on his team (and a good team!) is just outrageously impressive and unexpected work.
He is not only impressive.
He keeps getting better.
Especially now that he has snapped out of the goal-scoring funk that he was stuck in for a few weeks.
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He is now up to 14 goals in 53 games (a 22-goal pace over 82 games) and still one of their best all-around players. He had a game this past week where the Penguins expected goal share when he was on the ice was 98 percent. It is the second game this season he was over 94 percent in a game. He is arguably their best possession-driving forward this season. He is finding his scoring touch. He is a relentless puck-hound. He plays with an insane level of confidence for an 18-year-old. He has helped make their lineup significantly deeper in terms of quality. It can not be overstated how significant his presence in the organization has become.
He is not only a big reason why they are a potential playoff team this season, he is setting up to be a significant long-term building block. He is a huge part of the reason why this season has become so exciting for both the short-term and the long-term.
4. Anthony Mantha is having a career year
Kyle Dubas has been on some kind of a run over the past season-and-a-half and the Anthony Mantha signing this past offseason has been one of the more surprisingly productive moves. The plan with him at the time seemed obvious. Sign a guy coming off a down, injury-shortened season the prior year to a low-risk contract, hope to build his value up a little, then flip him at the trade deadline for a second-round pick. He seemed to be this season’s Anthony Beauvilier.
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It has worked out significantly better than expected.
Going into the Olympic break Mantha is already up to 20 goals and 42 total points in 56 games, is on pace to set career highs in goals and total points. Prior to this season his high goal-mark was 25 (in only 67 games) during the 2018-19 season with the Detroit Red Wings. He is currently on pace for 29 goals. His career high in total points is 48 in both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. He is currently on pace for 61 points.
The Penguins could easily trade him for a second-round pick in March. Probably more. But I also do not know how they do that given the way the season is right now. It is not like the Penguins have a pressing need for more draft picks. They already have more of them over the next four years than any team in the NHL, including several picks in the first three rounds.
Should the Penguins re-sign him? That might be going a little too far with it. He has been a great addition and a great story this season. Whether or not he can continue that next season at age 32 on a significantly higher contract is an entirely different question. For now, though, you might just have to ride with it and see where it can take you.
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Expectations change. Sometimes when expectations change your plans also have to change.
