Who wins the possession battle for the Celtics?

For a decade, teams have been chasing the most efficient shot. The NBA ran away from the mid-range to build better spacing with players positioned beyond the three-point line. With that shift, efficiency at the rim increased significantly, rising from 60% in 2016 to 67% in 2026. However, like any innovation, spacing might have reached its ceiling.

Now that everybody is on the same page regarding efficiency, spacing, and shot profile, the analytics cheat code might be overdue — or perhaps it is about something other than efficiency. In an era where NBA teams know how to build coherent offenses to generate the best possible shots, how do you actually make a difference?

Well, recently, teams have found a new way to win games. It isn’t about who gets the most efficient shots anymore; it’s about who is able to generate the most possessions. A few weeks ago, we looked into it with an article about the Celtics’ shift in offensive rebounding and turnover creation: How Boston used basic math to stay elite.

However, to become one of the best teams at winning the possession battle, you need soldiers who generate those extra attempts. Therefore, with some coding, a lot of brain juice, and plenty of coffee, I was able to come up with a metric that evaluates the volume of extra possessions gained (or saved!) when a player is on the court.

I presented it this summer and ran the code again today to look at the best players at winning the possession battle across the league — and within the Celtics roster. For those interested in the logic behind the numbers, the methodology is available in this story from June: Winning the margins: who drives Boston’s possession edge?

Hugo Gonzalez, Marcus Smart heir

Before deep diving into the Celtics roster, let’s zoom out and look at the entire league for some perspective. We see a clear signal, even stronger than last season, regarding the impact of the possession battle on team performance. Comparing this season’s numbers to last year’s, the link between possession control and Net Rating has actually strengthened.

To sum it up, players who help their teams win the possession battle tend to make those teams perform better. And among all NBA players who logged at least 500 minutes, Hugo Gonzalez ranks second in total possessions added. He trails only Yves Missi and sits ahead of offensive rebounding specialists like Mitchell Robinson or Moussa Diabaté, as well as elite defensive playmakers such as Alex Caruso and Marcus Smart.

Now that we’ve established how elite Hugo has been at creating extra possessions, how does he compare to the rest of the Celtics roster?

Last season, the go-to guy for extra possessions was Luke Kornet, but this year Hugo Gonzalez has taken the lead in that department. Still, he isn’t the only Celtic with a positive impact in the possession battle. Behind the rookie, Luka Garza and Neemias Queta have also been very influential.

Garza’s presence on the court provides a significant boost on the offensive glass. For Queta, the impact comes more from the Celtics’ ability to secure the defensive rebound and increase the volume of forced turnovers when he is on the floor.

The two other players with a positive impact on the possession battle are guards: Derrick White and Anfernee Simons. When they are on the court, the Celtics improve their ability to generate turnovers and suppress opponents’ offense, leading to more extra possessions. Additionally, when White is on the floor, he also applies pressure on the offensive glass and helps secure the ball, limiting turnovers.

Looking at the left end of the chart, we can also see that some Celtics players have a negative impact on the team’s ability to win the possession battle — most notably Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard. But why?

It starts on the defensive end. When they are on the court, the Celtics create fewer turnovers and also struggle slightly more to secure the defensive rebound. On offense, the team is also less likely to apply consistent pressure on the offensive glass with those two on the floor.

With their offensive load peaking this season, it’s not a huge surprise that the Celtics’ offensive engines aren’t able to provide the same level of extra-possession hustle. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that the Celtics’ Net Rating is also higher when they are on the bench, further highlighting how much the possession battle impacts overall team performance.

Last but not least, how is Nikola Vucevic, the Celtics’ latest addition performing with the Bulls this season when it comes to extra possessions?

The answer is mixed. His impact on offense has been relatively flat, with little influence on rebounding, and negative on defense. With him on the court, the Bulls’ defense has been far less aggressive, as their ability to create turnovers and generate transition opportunities fell off a cliff. That said, it is worth noting that he has had a very positive impact on protecting the defensive glass — an area that can still be a weakness for the Celtics at times.

It’s all about the margins

What this data really highlights is not just a league-wide trend, but a very specific Celtics reality. The possession battle isn’t won by star usage or shot-making talent, it’s won on the margins, by players willing to absorb the dirty work that doesn’t always show up on highlights.

Hugo Gonzalez’s emergence gives Boston a new lever in that fight. His impact, alongside contributions from Kornet last season and Garza or Queta this year, reinforces how much the Celtics rely on role players to stabilize their floor across lineups. At the same time, the numbers also underline the natural trade-off between offensive responsibility and extra-possession effort for high-usage scorers.

In a league where efficiency gaps are shrinking, Boston’s edge increasingly comes from who creates the next possession. And as the season unfolds, the ability to balance scoring talent with possession-winning specialists may end up being one of the Celtics’ most sustainable advantages.