Good morning and welcome to one of the best days of the year. Say it with me: pitchers and catchers.
Red Sox spring training officially opens today and, with yesterday’s Caleb Durbin trade, Craig Breslow is probably done making any significant transactions.
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So with the offseason essentially closed, let’s take a look at how the Red Sox organization has changed since the Cam Schlittler Game.
Notable MLB Departures
List organized by 2025 bWAR:
Notable MLB Additions
List organized by 2025 bWAR:
Notable Minor League Departures
List organized by highest SoxProspects.com ranking:
Notable Minor League Additions
List organized by current SoxProspects.com ranking:
So what conclusions can we draw from this. I’ll take a stab at a couple.
First, I think it’s inarguable that, barring injuries, the roster that will open the 2026 season is more talented than the roster that closed out 2025. Craig Breslow has assembled arguably the single best pitching staff in baseball — one that is not only strong at the top of the rotation, but deep, with a couple of high-end prospects who will start the season in Worcester. And while the lineup may not perform as well as it did in 2025 without Alex Bregman and a half a year of Rafael Devers, Willson Contreras is a solid addition while Caleb Durbin looks to be a good bet to be league average.
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But having said that, the roster remains unbalanced and I am very worried about the lineup in general. There is a lot of pressure being put on young players to step up. Roman Anthony probably needs to perform at an All-Star level in his first full season for this Red Sox team to go anywhere (I think he can and will). While Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, Carlos Narvaez, Triston Casas, and Caleb Durbin — all of whom have significant question marks — all need to contribute. It’s easy to simply say that Anthony will replace Devers production and Contreras will replace Bregman’s. And perhaps that will happen. But Contreras comes with significant risk of age-related decline (as does Trevor Story) and we cannot count on linear progression from Anthony. The lineup could potentially be anemic against left-handed pitching, while an unfortunate injury or some stalled development could make things ugly in the infield.
Speaking of age-related decline, can we count on Aroldis Chapman to once again be one of the best relievers in baseball? Craig Breslow is essentially doing just that, as he has barely touched the bullpen.
And, of course, we can’t ignore the minor leagues. Breslow has expended a lot of prospect capital over the past two years, particularly on the position player side, where you could argue that Franklin Arias is now the only notable prospect in the entire system.
All of this brings me to my conclusion: Craig Breslow improved the Red Sox in the 2025-26 offseason, but he didn’t improve the team enough. With an emerging superstar in Roman Anthony, one of the game’s very best starters in Garrett Crochet, a deep rotation, and a core of cheap, exciting young players, the Red Sox should be in a position to push for ~98 wins and a stress-free ride to the postseason. Instead, I think they’re probably only a couple wins better than last year’s team and, with a few bad breaks, could miss the postseason entirely.
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For those reasons, I’ll give him a solid B. What’s your grade?
